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hlcater

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Everything posted by hlcater

  1. The SREF plumes seem to almost always ride NW. Probably close to worthless at this range
  2. DVN removed pops entirely for Cedar Rapids. That seems… unwise. even if it is probably the right call
  3. Ah. I'll trust you on it since you've likely been playing closer attention than I. Thx.
  4. What else has come north besides the 18z GFS? The rest of guidance seems to look commensurate with their previous respective runs. Pretty tough to call one run of one model a trend.
  5. The derecho is our comeuppance for our cholera tier big storm climo and bad luck on top of that.
  6. Read the stat in the banter thread before you complain any more please and thank you.
  7. I think it’s been over since yesterday for max band potential (which is what I was implying). It may certainly snow however.
  8. Of course what could be a serious contender for the biggest storm since GHD looks to leave eastern Iowa out. The nearly 50 year 12” storm streak for CR shall continue. How does Chicago (barring the lake) seem to reel in a 12” synoptic snow every 3-4 years while CR hasn’t had one in 50. It’s baffling. Yes I’m mad about it (The last 12” snowfall for CR is April 1973)
  9. Gonna be a brutal miss on this one for CR/IC. Decadal storm potential here
  10. Not feeling too optimistic about being this far northwest. Looks like a wicked hit for someone too. Really too bad. Euro is a tick south of 12z
  11. Too bad too as slower in this instance probably means south.
  12. KC-Kankakee-Flint special when all is said and done
  13. Iowa is gonna have to have a lot go right for this system in order to get the best snows up this way. As of now, lead wave is too strong and baroclinic zone is forced too far south. Our best shot of snow would appear to come from initial overrunning precip while the big lobe of energy tracks somewhere to the SE of here.
  14. I have no idea why that matters. Column temp/omega/saturation is what you want to pay attention to. Matters little where that is coming from. The airmass on the cold side of the baroclinic zone absolutely favors higher end ratios and as such kuchera is probably the better reflection here.
  15. Euro was close to a bomb but couldnt quite get there. Sad!
  16. its 4th and 14 with the game on the line for NYC rn
  17. dw the northern stream is gonna ensure that does not happen
  18. This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table.
  19. Models are underdoing a band of mostly rain in NW IA where temps are in the 40s. Models suggest any precip that does fall here tonight will likely be rain, but with that being said and given the current extent/intensity of precip near the area of low pressure, I wonder if we end up with snow here instead. Soundings prior to precip arrival appear pretty ripe for evap cooling. 2nd sounding should support snow or graupel. Expecting a DAB- even if it does snow. I'm mostly just interested in p-type.
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