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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. The high-rise structures are built to withstand some pretty strong EQs. Acapulco exists on a subduction zone prone to violent quakes. Of course, that doesn't mean the guts of floors didn't have cheaper materials. But I'd imagine some of these more expensive high-rises that got gutted weren't cheap. The rich and famous like their Acapulco.
  2. The eye fill was right at landfall. Yes, you have to take into account parallax. You also have to attribute eyefill most likely to the rugged terrain that immediately began disrupting the core at landfall. But as they say, too little too late. No doubt it was a Cat 5 landfall to me.
  3. Perhaps for something right on the immediate waterfront in the bay due to wave action on top of some surge. But the water is rather deep for fetch versus abrupt elevation change. Everything away from the immediate waterfront is above 6 ft in much of Acapulco. Nobody should be on the harbour walls unless they're being careless. Now that being said, the flat estuaries around the airport and lagoons both east and west of Acapulco would be far more susceptible to surge. But again, this is a very small hurricane, despite its intensity. Wind and run-off are my greatest concerns for the greater populace and Otis' core.
  4. I'm by no means downplaying that. Aside from a limited surge, the situation is dire. It's just a person has good odds, even avoiding injury, sheltering in a solid structure. If a slope gives way into the same described structure. Well, it's not good either way, but to the point, it's far more difficult to survive the latter.
  5. Yes, generally, the surge isn't going to be the most dangerous aspect of Otis, despite it being a Cat 5. It has a small core. Winds will be devastating within the eyewall, especially for elevated structures on sloped terrain. And, of course, mudslides, which still remain the greatest threat to life regardless of catastrophic wind.
  6. Helpful post regarding surge prone areas via Jeff Masters:
  7. I think we're about to get some bad news. Trichoidal wobbles aside, it looks like Otis is going to turn too late to miss Acapulco proper. Even still, urban coastal communities extend east and west along the coastline. The core of Otis may move right over some densely populated areas.
  8. Wow... There's not really much to add here other than Otis has a very small core. The worst wind damage should be confined to a small area, but it may be pretty bad. The flooding is going to be widespread with the slow motion. I'm still hoping for the eyewall to begin breaking down and weakening some prior to landfall since it is moving slow versus faster motion and carrying momentum. Perhaps some terrain influences.
  9. ACE has now surpassed 140 thanks to Hurricane Tammy's persistence. Barring some ridiculous unforseen WCARIB activity during the remaining weeks of the season, I think we're nearing the close. Consider that last year's total ACE didn't even surpass 100, despite one of the costliest hurricanes in American history. Yet, yadda yadda, it only takes one. It's still one of the weirdest El Niño years in my lifetime, but thanks to a strong +AMO, this was a very active season. I must add that having a strong El Niño was a blessing. Despite the overall activity, quite a bulky pattern of shear managed to keep many of our MDR systems in check. And virtually nothing strong got within a whiff of the SE CONUS, beyond the homegrown WCARIB/GOM major hurricane Idalia. Imagine long-trackers without the shear? Could have been another 2017.
  10. Otis might just be the worst of the EPAC due to location of landfall. Hopefully, it will weaken just before the eyewall comes ashore. Regardless, that's a bad spot for flooding and population, even if it does not hold Cat 4 through landfall. It's not moving all that fast.
  11. Otis is looking rather mean at present..
  12. Good lord, so much activity going on world-wide (despite the usual suspect WPAC), I can't keep up. Of course, work...
  13. Shear. Development? Sure. But a long duration hurricane? Very unsure.. A few clicks west, even now, and this vortex gets shredded. And any amount of poor modeling of that shear axis might still not account for it getting shredded tomorrow. For a hurricane, Tammy has been living on the edge. It has remained just barely east of some very strong shear values and has kept pulsing just enough to maintain its open eyewall. Even the more NNW turn likely kept the mid-level circulation from being decapitated tonight. I never expected Tammy to become a hurricane, and I definitely didn't think it would remain one this long. That being said, the title could use a bit of an edit, @Ed, snow and hurricane fan
  14. Tammy has made a direct hit on the island of Barbuda. An official landfall as well. Edit: The hospital in Barbuda recorded 78 kt sustained winds in the eyewall. Unofficial, of course; I am sure the station anemometer will need to be checked. Tammy has a very small core, but clearly, the LLC vorticity maximum remains healthy. Additionally, it is riding against the ridge to its NW. The gradient is strong, so I am not surprised at the wind reading if it is verified. Especially if elevated.
  15. A rare case of low shear over the NIO with the TC positioned perfectly under vast anticyclonic flow aloft. This may very well become a Category 4 on Sunday local time there. Expected to make landfall near the Yemen-Oman border and most likely major flooding for both countries.
  16. Severe TC Tej looks to be bombing in the Arabian Sea/NIO.
  17. ECMWF wants Tammy to miss the trough and stall just north of Puerto Rico. It would likely be in a sheared environment there while in a blocked steering flow. The GFS still allows the trough to capture Tammy and bring it SE of Bermuda, then leaves it behind. The GFS does place Tammy in a better environment for intensification as it moves N, prior to a being left behind, however. Some of the TC models even show a major hurricane, though I'm not sure I buy that.
  18. Wow, didn't expect the TC to reach hurricane intensity with shear in place. May be a short-term classification.
  19. Look at what 24 hours can do to modeling. Nearly everything is trending down in intensity guidance for 94L. Shear and subsidence are being picked up, and the ensembles look much less enthusiastic about a well organized TC near or NE of the Lesser Antilles. We may still very well get a named TC threatening the Leewards, but less likely to be a formidable hurricane.
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