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Windspeed

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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Rotation is tightening on the Cromwell cell that is now warned.
  2. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    This may be the first cell to produce. Velocity rotation looks to be tightening. And there's now a tornado warning on it.
  3. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    The cell northeast of Seminole looks better and better.
  4. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    The environment and low level jet improve east of HWY-81. If the SW Oklahoma cell can hold together, it may very well go tornadic between Rush Springs and Chickasha.
  5. Windspeed

    Mid to Late May 2019 Severe Threats

    Though we only have the one cell, the orientation of potential development of future cells in that line of cumulus up into the I-40 corridor is concerning.
  6. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    May storms are still infrequent. We have seen named subtropical and purely tropical systems in December as well. But the average still favors June through November. We would really need to see the standard deviation spread on the calendar beyond a single system, even if we have had a named storm in May the last few years. Water temps are still not quite there until around late May for any increase in climatological favorability.
  7. Windspeed

    Tn Valley Severe Weather 2018-19

    Though not our area, I feel it's still worth a brief mention here in case anyone focuses mostly just on our region. There is a high risk for a significant tornado outbreak in the southern Great Plains today. First SPC High Risk since 2017. A lot of troubling parameters in play for this to verify. If anyone has relatives out there, never hurts to give attention. There will be a main thread in the Central/Western Subforum to follow as the event unfolds.
  8. Windspeed

    Major Hurricane Michael

    A few millibars difference in scientific analysis on a final report may indeed be splitting hairs, but why the condescending remark? It's a meteorological science forum and he even took the time to explain his reasoning for why the difference in a few mb was worth pointing out. Even if minute, it gives further evidence that the ongoing period of rapid intensification was not yet beginning to wane and may have warranted at least a mention within the report. Regardless, I don't see the need to patronize the man. There are plenty of instances of people making asinine posts. His wasn't one of them.
  9. Often times posters will discuss, compare and contrast historical tropical cyclones and their climatology during an active event thread, but these posts end up buried amongst the overall meteorological storm discussion for obvious reasons. I am opening this thread for current and future discussion as it relates to past tropical cyclone events and their peer-reviewed reanalysis projects. If any person wishes to post about, reminisce or debate past tropical cyclones, regardless of oceanic basin or sea, perhaps they carry that on in this thread so we may have an easier flow of information and archive of such discussion. I have quite a few cyclones to discuss myself and existing preconceptions / misconceptions about a particular region of the Atlantic to flesh out. My first post will be later this evening. But don't wait on me.
  10. Most of the communities along the track have densely populated townships even if they are small in size, such as Puri, India, which has around 200k residents in its last census. Puri may also find itself in the right-front quadrant of the eyewall. Trying to estimate track, Chatrapur, a smaller township of about 20k may get the direct hit. Regardless, as the cyclone moves inland, there are even higher population densities across the state of Odisha, and of course, per usual, the greatest threat is still going to be flash flooding of low lying communities.
  11. Fani's Adj T numbers had already hit 140 kts. The earlier pinhole eye had also cleared and warmed. Though unofficial, Fani could very well have already attained Cat 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. I don't know if the cyclone will maintain upper Cat 4 to Cat 5 intensity all the way through landfall however, as Fani's forecast track moves its core slightly adjacent and in close proximity to the shape of the Indian coastline for a while prior to actual landfall. Disruption of the core and eyewall interaction with land should weaken it before official landfall occurs. Regardless, this is a very powerful tropical cyclone, and with intense winds impacting a lot of shoreline, this cyclone has the potental to be a devestating event to multiple communities with a high population density. Edit: Fani, not "Lani".
  12. Windspeed

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    Looks like dueling tornadoes on velocity. Somebody is probably getting quite the show looking from the south despite HP. Obviously anyone caught north is getting pulverized by hail.
  13. Windspeed

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    A very strong couplet is tightening just east of Megargel on the primary cell's meso. Very impressive. That may be a large tornado forming.
  14. Windspeed

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    Wow that super cell between Seymour and Olney, TX is massive, and has already produced multiple simultaneous TOGs.
  15. Right. But from a climatological and historical perspective, the SSTs of the northern gulf shelf by Sept-Oct have generally cooled below what is required to support a rapidly deepening Cat 5. Sure, the central, southern GOM and Bay of Campeche would continue supporting Cat 5 intensity through October, but those storms tend to weaken drastically if steered into the N. GOM. Major hurricane Opal being a prime example. October of 2018 hopefully remains anomalous in its mutliple contributing factors that lead to Michael, as generally multiple cold fronts have swept through the northern gulf by mid-to-late September and subsequent dry continental air plus radiational cooling has brought down mean heat content by 3-4°C. Again, it's one thing to consider a rare Category 5 threat in July, August, perhaps still even September, but October? Michael is hopefully the rarest of generational occurrences.
  16. Windspeed

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    Would be surprised if it isn't producing.
  17. Windspeed

    April 29-May 1 Severe Weather

    The complex of supercells west of Fayetteville near Oklahoma/Arkansas line are moving towards the Siloam Springs area. There are two strong velocity couplets moving in tandem to the NNE.
  18. Reading back through this thread, I was dead wrong in one point while trying to discredit preconceptons or misconceptions about landfalling Cat 5s along the N. GOM coast, including rapid intensification over its shallow shelf. I never once imagined that scenario being possible in the month of October. Then having that play out approximately one year later? Crazy!
  19. Windspeed

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ CSU has introduced the following website to house and track seasonal forecasts from private and public entities: http://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/
  20. Windspeed

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Blue skies past hour after several hours of showers. Temperatures have responded accordingly, up to 74° from 63° earlier, and it actually feels humid, which may aid in destabilization for strong cells by the time the boundary rolls through KTRI.
  21. Windspeed

    April 13-14 Severe Weather Outbreak

    Atlanta's population is much larger than that half-a-million figure but their census only includes the Atlanta "metro proper" for its total. However, Fulton Co., which includes a big chunk of Atlanta's residential suburbs has over 1.2 million people alone. Population totals can be confusing with respect to different cities and their zoning. For example, Houston is the exact opposite of Atlanta. Everything inside the Sam Houston Beltway is included in Houston's metro population. Atlanta would be much larger if it incorporated a larger portion of its urban region. Make no mistake though, several million live inside the I-285 loop and around 3-4 million in close proximity to it within the greater Atlanta urban region.
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