Windspeed

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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Not to completely divert off-topic here but I think we can colonize with domes and perhaps even produce atmosphere before we can forcefully manipulate the randomness of chaotic liquid flow eddies between low and high pressure systems. Perhaps even being able to make a planet breathable before we can control the thermal-coupled dynamics between the Earth's oceans and resultant drivin lapse rates into its atmosphere. That is some serious crazy physics control at that point that might not come into human or AI control until far later into advancements of space exploration and settlement that we are a long ways off from achieving. Take a planet like Venus, for example. Yeah. Yikes. We've got a long way to go before we can simply snuff out a macro system like a Category 5 hurricane.
  2. If humans or its resulting AI civilization doesn't extinguish / destroy itself, it is hypothetically possible that some sentient intelligence will be able to control the planet's weather at some point in the distant future. However, in the shorter term, it is likely unachievable from an macro engineering scale and far more realistic that we merely take better actions to protect coastal communities and advance their preparedness. I mean, that is if you even give any credence or thoughts to the Kardashev scale.
  3. U.S. federal territory is now included in landfalls. Probably should have always been if costing American citizens / taxpayers direct to indirect casualties and economic impacts. That being said, PR may end up being an actual state at some point anyway. As for the late season fireworks, other than the outrageous 2017 Cape Verde season, seasons over the past decade have seemingly experienced intense hurricanes at a later date. I am a little reluctant to say it is entirely due to climate change because this might be an episodic cyclical period that has occurred in previous centuries or beyond the scope of good shipping reports / meteorological data. However, I am not saying it isn't due to climate change. There are a lot of variables and perhaps climate change is having an influence on mid-season / early Cape Verde seasonal shear patterns that wanes later in September, allowing for an active October. Perhaps it has just been a stretch of bad luck in randomness or statistical probability? I still expect seasons like 2004 and 2017 for a more atypical active Augusts and early September CV season. There is no doubt the overall trend has swung later into the season at least on a recent decadal timescale however.
  4. Yeah this unfortunately has the look of at least an EF3. Definitely a sigtor event.
  5. Where are you located,@jaxjagman ?
  6. 73 dBZ on that squally linear cell south of Tellico Plains.
  7. Suspicious rotation near Germantown.
  8. Bristol picked up about a .5-.75". Was pouring pretty good there for a bit to make the roads covered and slick. It was fun getting into work. [emoji854]
  9. Intensive analysis of Hurricane Dorian has been released. https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/1/93/htm
  10. Pouring in Bristol now. Early radar echoes all seemed mostly virga, but now seems like the column has moistened up enough for some moderate flakes. A nice surprise!
  11. Not going through the entire modern historical record, but it's not frequent. These are the most recent years that the North Atlantic Basin had higher ACE than the NW Pacific Basin. 1998 1999 2010 2017 2020 Interestingly, the two other hyperactive seasons in the Atlantic, 2004 and 2005, got stomped by the WPAC.
  12. Model evolution / trends over the past 12 hours are definitely swinging towards a major snowstorm event for the eastern half of the Valley. Also extreme SWVA to Roanoke looking better to avoid a potential sharp cuttoff around KTRI. I suppose I am cautiously optimistic now. See if this can hold serve on the next few runs to gain confidence.
  13. That 12z ECMWF run has peaked my excitement. I have been cautiously optimistic but now I am in full hype mode. I feel conservatively 3" is now a safe call for KTRI. Edit: Meh, maybe 2-3" would be the safe call.
  14. Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. [emoji102] JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction.
  15. This is a pretty big deal and thought it should go here.
  16. Yeah you can always live vicariously through New Englanders. [emoji25]
  17. Worth pointing out that Central America was hit very hard and we shouldn't forget that. Though Louisiana was certainly beat up this season, the US still has the resources to mitigate and assist our fellow citizens. We shouldn't forget them either. That being said, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and the SW Caribbean were already struggling. Millions of of people are suffering there economically. Now we have a humanitarian crisis as many localized regions are currently devastated. This was a horrific hurricane season.
  18. I think last Tuesday's outlook was a wrap on the 2020 season folks! ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. Forecaster Beven
  19. Modern? Well the most destructive is still going to be Katrina for what it did to the MS and LA coastlines. Most powerful? That's still going to be the Labor Day 1935 storm with its ridiculous sub 895 hPa landfall and 185 sustained winds.
  20. It's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure.