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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. It's not even just any member. Granted, the ECMWF may come back west, but there is a notable concern for more track adjustments if it does not. We do not even yet have a well established stacked TC to feel deep layer steering as intensification modeling is behind schedule, so plenty of unknowns remain.
  2. I haven't been participating much this weekend due to some personal issues. All I would contribute, and I am sure this has already been hammered home, regardless of how strong Ian gets and however much hype, the prognostic analysis of the synoptic pattern screams one thing: If Ian is a Panhandle hurricane, it will be ripped to shreds; where as if it hooks into the upper level flow and makes a beeline towards the western penninsula, it will be a stronger hurricane at landfall. How strong? It may still weaken, but the intensity should still have devastating impacts. I'm not even sure Ian will maintain hurricane intensity if it landfalls on the Panhandle. It's pretty cut and dry, no pun intended. So you want that solution, not the ECMWF solution.
  3. I mean major hurricane landfalls are indeed rare regardless but Florida does dominate the metric.
  4. We're still way below average for climatological ACE through yearly date, but boy is it closing fast. Should surpass it by the end of September. If October has a few hurricanes, we'll likely end up as what is considered an active season, but still well below seasonal forecasts. At any rate, we're staring down the barrel of two strong landfalls.
  5. Yeah ultimately though the low level wave is there and has tilted/folded north, this thing needs convection. That may not come until tomorrow though.
  6. I am finding the sub 930s hard to believe even with all the model agreement. Perhaps sub 940, but it just seems a bit too extreme, though obviously not impossible. That's a good 30 mb below their records. We shall see...
  7. Yeah I am pretty certain that is old wall cloud debris slowly dissipating. Fiona is looking pretty sexy right now. Wonder what peak will end up being. I'm going to say 145 mph sustained sometime during the day tomorrow, though certainly it could get there tonight.
  8. That may be cloud debris from the old eyewall left by the earlier ERC or partial cycle rotating around.
  9. Recon found pressures have fallen to around 933'ish but the winds have not increased. In fact they have dropped. This may be due to new strengthening eyewall convection but perhaps the vortex has not yet spun up to respond to the pressure falls.
  10. I think forward motion to the north is gaining just enough to finally ease the 300 mb flow, though it had already eased on the core somewhat the past 24 hrs, which allowed Fiona to become a Cat 4. There are some strong outer banding features, so cannot rule out multiple ERCs during the next few days, but Fiona may not have peaked yet if a stable eye can take advantage of the ever improving upper environment.
  11. Forward motion matters with respect to the Pandhandle and shelf waters as well. Sure, if the potential TC is intense but gets left behind prior to landfall, it would stall, upwell itself plus entrain continental airmass. However, if it remains at a decent northerly forward motion into the panhandle, shelf waters are still currently running hot. There has yet to be a significant cold front pass through or at least one to bring down SSTs. So the shallow shelf would be more than sufficient to fuel a Cat 5 just like Michael or Camille. Of course, a hook to the right, 300mb flow, trough ventilation, structure, trough bypass, all speculation for a week or more and we don't even have a TC yet.
  12. Discussion of 98L becoming Hurricane Hermine are bit premature. The AEW/AOI in the eastern MDR is gaining support for development. It's quite possible 98L will be slower to go through TCG until the central Carribean versus the AEW in the visible imagery that is a more concentrated surface low right now. The MDR AOI doesn't even have an invest tag yet, but it may not be long today. The Caribbean system could be the dreaded "I" storm. Though of course that's all poppycock superstitious hogwash.
  13. This map is blowing my mind. I get the extreme high latitude in association with the Gulf Stream current for catagorical cyclone intensity potential. But the upper portion of the map seems impossible, as though those SSTs are running above normal, they're still very cold and way below the threshold to support a tropical surface low.
  14. Pressure continues to fall but Fiona's slow forward motion is allowing the 300 mb flow to impede it somewhat keeping it in check. The double wind maxima is perhaps telling that it won't resolve these structural issues until it gains faster northerly forward motion, which should allow it to take off intensity wise.
  15. This is actually easier to see via AVN as you can better make out the -80C/coldest tops. Notice all the GLM lightning detections with each convective burst/tower going up around the northern eyewall to reach highest altitude in the western to southwestern semicircle. These towers are rotating into the 300 mb flow and some of the canopy is overshooting the eye. That being said, the intense convection is likely dropping pressure and increasing the gradient. Fiona is intensifying.
  16. Hot towers are firing against the 300 mb flow. It's a light shear essentially, so mid-level cloud debris is sinking into the eye. The positive ventilation to the north is outpacing the negative counter vector flow from the southwest. I'd call this favorable for a strengthening major hurricane, but perhaps not a perfect envelope until the hurricane turns more northerly. All in all, a period of RI tonight or in the morning remains quite possible.
  17. Well we need the AEW to spawn a surface low before I get too excited, but obviously if we do see genesis out of this, the modeled potential is worth the superlatives. It appears the Atlantic got tired of the whining and woke up. If this and a few other systems pan out, we should push ahead of normal climatological ACE into an active season. But unless the Caribbean goes bonkers in October, I am pretty confident we won't eek out a hyperactive season at this point. Here a nice tweet describing the setup for the potential future TC into the Caribbean.
  18. I thought there would be some lag time post exit of landmass for reintensification. Perhaps atleast 6-10 hours of ocean time. I mean this was a trek over the DR, even if the core remained over the lowlands. But I was considering the mountainous terrain impeding some of its low-level inflow into the core. Uhhh... that appears to be a big negatory, slappy. Fiona looks like it is about to experience some explosive deepening.
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