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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Modern? Well the most destructive is still going to be Katrina for what it did to the MS and LA coastlines. Most powerful? That's still going to be the Labor Day 1935 storm with its ridiculous sub 895 hPa landfall and 185 sustained winds.
  2. It's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure.
  3. I had hoped the southern eyewall would miss Providecia. It looks like they weren't so lucky. If you notice the image posted of the on-board radar panel here, the island was contained within the southern eyewall's strongest echoes. Though they may not have been crossed by the most intense portion of the inside eyewall edge nor highest core wind. This is only my speculation, of course. It is likely based on the radar image and these ground images that they did get hit by at least Cat 4 sustained winds and gusts even if they might have barely missed Iota's peak wind on the southern inside edge of the eyewall.
  4. FWIW, Eta was a slow mover and spent a long time over that shallow shelf. Though the mix likely recovered somewhat, it's likely only around ~28°C in places at the surface. So Iota has probably reached MPI at that latitude considering the warmer upper tropospheric temperatures. At any rate, it likely won't weaken too much prior to landfall. We're still looking at a high end Cat 4 landfall at least.
  5. Though Eta was a beautiful hurricane, I think Iota is going to sweep the pageant for the Atlantic 2020 hurricane season. The visible presentation on this thing is just incredible.
  6. I'd say they'll allow for both passes before any downgrade and if it is close they may keep it at steady state 160 mph sustained for continuity.
  7. Yeah the upshear convection is impressive right now. It will be interesting to see if the SFMR winds have come up on the new passes to coincide with the pressure falls measured during the last recon mission. Then again, it may have level off to around 140 kts.
  8. Slopes are still saturated from Eta. Make no mistake, about as high a mudflow / lahar event as your going to see for a number of volcanic edifices and steep river gorges.
  9. RE: Odd flight paths on last recon passes...
  10. By the time the next recon reaches Iota it may very well be past peak or in the throws of an ERC. So if we don't get the upgrade with current data, we likely won't get an upgrade at all. I think there is enough data, especially the pressure data, to go ahead and do the deed. It's not a hard sell or that it's questionable though SFMR can be. I'd like to have had higher SFMR readings but it's close. We shall see...
  11. 2017 was hyperactive. One of the worst Cape Verde seasons we've experienced as well. So technically just 3 years apart.
  12. The western eyewall has consistently had the most explosive CBs rotating around the southern semicircle through the morning hours. But interesting data for sure.
  13. That may do it right there. Wind would still be increasing due to ongoing pressure fall. The NHC knows this so they may go ahead and upgrade to 140 kts now.
  14. Based on most recent best track, it doesn't look like the NHC is going to pull the trigger unless there is better substantial surface data. SFMR was 140kt but the flight-level/SFMR blend so far is 135kt. High end Cat 4 155 mph as is. Impressive system nonetheless. May be at peak now so Iota may not ever reach Cat 5 unless it can maintain and intensify a bit more by next recon pass. AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 135, 921
  15. By the time recon gets there, it will be nearing peak. I don't know of Iota is going to reach Cat 5 but it sure as hell looks like it is trying. With all the recon issues during Eta, it's possible Eta did reach a 5 for a short while only we lacked the data or sampled past peak. Iota on the other hand may actually not be at peak yet as the eye is still yet getting warmer and more circular. So timing of the next recon should be interesting. Also, holy guacamole at that GLM count in the southern eyewall. Provencia may be just south of it hopefully. Not sure. Parallax can be deceiving.
  16. With such a rapid pressure fall, this will likely be a Cat 4 by dawn.
  17. Iota has gained just enough latitude on a more WNW track over the past six hours now. So it looks like the southern eyewall will miss Provencia to the north fortunately.
  18. ACE is now at 170. Probably going to hit 180 if Iota rapidly deepens into a Cat 4. The Greek list has been a season in of itself.