Jump to content

Windspeed

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,746

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Windspeed
    The OBS make logical sense. Though Dolphin's eyewall has clearly intensified, the expansive sink and spread out low pressure surface trough due to many days of large eyewalls and concentric banding now surround the central vorticity maximum and core (i.e. background pressures are very low around the typhoon's envelope). Dolphin won't increase the overall maxium wind too significantly. However, it will allow strong winds to mix down better in the eye. Still an impressive system regardless if it is not capable of reaching high end typhoon status again.
  2. Windspeed
    Land interaction appears to have allowed Dolphin's inner core to tighten up over the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation sort of speaks for itself. The inner eyewall has remained over water while any concentric banding is moving directly over the mountainous terrain of Okinawa and surrounding peaks of Nakijin. Fractional convergence is winning, and Dolphin's eyewall appears to be intensifying at present. Several CBs rotating around allowing the CDO to cool in the process. A magnificent satellite presentation.
  3. Windspeed
    Spiral galaxy mode engaged.
  4. Windspeed
    Dolphin is definitely winning in beauty points. Absolutely gorgeous expansive typhoon.
  5. Windspeed
    Dolphin appears to be entering a new phase of intensification. Dual CBs are currently rotating around the core. Tops are getting colder with a notable HT. The core looks overall healthier than the past few days. Again, the gradient may still be too spread out to actually make another run at Super Typhoon status, but clearly, some intensification is underway as ADT numbers are back on the increase.
  6. Windspeed
    It's pretty fascinating thermal dynamics at play with Dolphin. The system remains in relatively low shear. It has already gone through numerous EWRCs. The typhoon has morphed from a deep, heavily banded system to one of multiple concentric rings that tend to hinder the core. Yet, shear should remain light. It will be moving across another degree Celsius or two of higher heat content. It will be interesting to see if Dolphin can reestablish enough intense core convection to tighten its gradient. It most likely will not reattain super typhoon status again. But it may have another period of strengthening. We shall see...
  7. Windspeed
    Dolphin is evolving into a Caterpillar 797 tire..
  8. Windspeed
    Yes, the grass never seems to dry off regardless of whether it rains that day. Mowing is a pain in the ass of late.
  9. Windspeed
    Kudos to the UKMET. Especially with the eventual westward component that it started suggesting before anything else. A few days ago, the ensembles latched onto taking the feature into the WATL. I was confident of that as well. But confidence means little in the early stages of a disorganized system caught between several dominant features and weak steering currents that are not fully resolved. Now, we have to see how convection evolves with the overall broader surface low. If a smaller vorticity becomes dominant, location if where that occurs will be critical to how long this system remains over water versus the gradual westward turn. Regardless, it looks like copius rainfall is on the menu for the Panhandle/So. Alabama, MS, and LA.
  10. Windspeed
    The lightning in these overnight cells gets intense, and if you happen to find yourself under one, look out. I had a tree struck around 2AM here. Virtually no wind. Just periods of frequent CGs.
  11. Windspeed
    If nothing else, at least it is a feature to track and watch. There is nothing much to add beyond the most recent posts. Spot on. It's a mid-level system / pulsing MCS. Let's see if it will ramp up again this evening. We need persistent deep convection to drive inflow and get vorticity to resolve in the low levels. That happening out over the GOM sooner than later determines if we get a TC or just beneficial rains to the upper peninsula. Again, it's something interesting to watch, and we may not get many of these this season.
  12. Windspeed
    Potential surface disturbance in the NE GOM is still hinted by ensembles. But realistically, any surface low would need steering currents to remain weak to gain development time and any potential vorticity to resolve away from land for something substantial to form.
  13. Windspeed
    Ditto.
  14. Windspeed
    Oh no!! He will be greatly missed! Thank you GaWx for letting everyone know. Rest in peace, Roger. May your contests be forever eternal in the great beyond.
  15. Windspeed
    If El Niño is strong, which I do think it will be, it should, in theory, give the Atlantic a break this year. That doesn't mean we still won't see a few hurricanes or perhaps even a few landfalls. The old saying, it only takes one while recalling Andrew in '92, a strong Niño year, etc.; however, I would expect overall activity to be below normal for seasonal numbers. Too much shear and unfavorability across the basin should curb CV long-trackers. Obviously, if ENSO doesn't swing too positive or the Niño is weaker, then anything is on the table. As of now, based on current trends, I do expect below normal overall activity in 2026 for the Atlantic basin.
  16. Windspeed
    I think KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.
  17. Windspeed
    We are either going to tie or break our record low for KTRI by daybreak. Skies are clear, and I am at 0°F at my location. Showing 1°F at KTRI. The official record low for KTRI on February 2nd is exactly 0°F. With a clear sky and no wind, surely we can drop another degree or two at the airport. Edit: And we officially recorded a new record low for February 2nd. Currently -1°F at KTRI. Edit 2: Posted in the storm OBS thread, but will paste here for posterity. KTRI officially got down to -3°F at the airport, but my vehicle read -5°F at work in Bristol. Either way, an official new record low temperature for February 2nd. Fortunately, there's no wind, so there's no real difference in wind chill.
  18. Windspeed
    It's just too cold for brine to be effective at these temperatures, no? They heavily treated the main road nearby, and it's all white other what they've managed to scrap or plow.
  19. Windspeed
    Congrats to everyone who got smashed. The event is still going, of course. We still have nice backing bands. Might we get a deformation band or trowal as the precipitation pulls eastward this afternoon?
  20. Windspeed
    One bad aspect of the initial melting the first few hours this afternoon is that all that wetness is going to freeze solid under the snow tonight. Should be pretty slick for driving upon later even with the more powdery stuff to come on top of it.
  21. Windspeed
    Cranking heavy snow here just south of Bristol. Big fatties. Ground is white. Starting to cover driveway and road.
  22. Windspeed
    The RGEM crushed our souls last week once it got into range. Everything quickly followed suit, so I'm going stubbornly stick with it through the evening. The 12z run doesn't have my location with an inch of accumulation at 10:1 until around 0z / 7PM. That seems reasonable, given the melting occurring with the sun. I figure we won't see heavy returns until sunset. As the temperature drops that ratio should also increase with the cold column in place.
  23. Windspeed
    We're nearly in nowcast mode. Banding across Kentucky into SWVA is steadily thickening on returns out of Jackson. Some of this may no longer be virga. Also returns are beginning to fill out of Morristown. Game time is upon us.
  24. Windspeed
    Latest RGEM...
  25. Windspeed
    Text for the map above..
×
×
  • Create New...