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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. By the time the next recon reaches Iota it may very well be past peak or in the throws of an ERC. So if we don't get the upgrade with current data, we likely won't get an upgrade at all. I think there is enough data, especially the pressure data, to go ahead and do the deed. It's not a hard sell or that it's questionable though SFMR can be. I'd like to have had higher SFMR readings but it's close. We shall see...
  2. 2017 was hyperactive. One of the worst Cape Verde seasons we've experienced as well. So technically just 3 years apart.
  3. The western eyewall has consistently had the most explosive CBs rotating around the southern semicircle through the morning hours. But interesting data for sure.
  4. That may do it right there. Wind would still be increasing due to ongoing pressure fall. The NHC knows this so they may go ahead and upgrade to 140 kts now.
  5. Based on most recent best track, it doesn't look like the NHC is going to pull the trigger unless there is better substantial surface data. SFMR was 140kt but the flight-level/SFMR blend so far is 135kt. High end Cat 4 155 mph as is. Impressive system nonetheless. May be at peak now so Iota may not ever reach Cat 5 unless it can maintain and intensify a bit more by next recon pass. AL, 31, 2020111612, , BEST, 0, 135N, 816W, 135, 921
  6. By the time recon gets there, it will be nearing peak. I don't know of Iota is going to reach Cat 5 but it sure as hell looks like it is trying. With all the recon issues during Eta, it's possible Eta did reach a 5 for a short while only we lacked the data or sampled past peak. Iota on the other hand may actually not be at peak yet as the eye is still yet getting warmer and more circular. So timing of the next recon should be interesting. Also, holy guacamole at that GLM count in the southern eyewall. Provencia may be just south of it hopefully. Not sure. Parallax can be deceiving.
  7. With such a rapid pressure fall, this will likely be a Cat 4 by dawn.
  8. Iota has gained just enough latitude on a more WNW track over the past six hours now. So it looks like the southern eyewall will miss Provencia to the north fortunately.
  9. ACE is now at 170. Probably going to hit 180 if Iota rapidly deepens into a Cat 4. The Greek list has been a season in of itself.
  10. Looks like Provencia Island is going to take a direct hit from Iota in the morning.
  11. Eye is warming. This is escalating pretty quickly now. Should be a major by morning. Cat 4 by tomorrow afternoon.
  12. Oh boy... This looks like it's about to go off like a stick of dynamite.
  13. I'd say things are improving atmospherically pretty quick now....
  14. Don't shoot the messenger but, well, yuck.
  15. I'm not real enthusiastic about this rapidly deepening into Nicaragua. They've already been through hell last week. That being said, there's enough time for the upper environment to evolve into more pristine conditions for it to have a period of rapid strengthening before landfall.
  16. Upgrade to Tropical Storm. NHC now forecasting a Major Hurricane. 000 WTNT41 KNHC 132044 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Iota Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL312020 400 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2020 Banding features over the eastern and southeastern portions of the cyclone's circulation have increased since this morning, and the overall organization of the system continues to quickly improve. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that there was a fairly large area of light winds near the center, and that the low-level center was displaced to the northwest of the mid-level center seen in visible satellite imagery. Since the system is still in its formative stage, the low-level center may reform closer to the mid-level feature, and the advisory position is a compromise between the low- and mid-level circulations. The earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of around 30 kt with several higher rain-inflated vectors. Based on the continued increase in organization, and Dvorak T-numbers of T2.5 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt. Iota becomes the 30th named storm of the recording-breaking 2020 hurricane season. The environment ahead of Iota appears to be quite conducive for intensification. The system will be moving over warm waters, in a moist atmosphere, and within an area of very low vertical wind shear. As a result, steady to rapid strengthening appears likely over the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Iota to reach hurricane status within 36 h, and now calls for the system to be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. The NHC intensity foreast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, and the 70-kt increase in intensity over the next 72 hours is supported by the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index that shows a nearly 60 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in intensity during that time period. The tropical storm has not moved very much today, and the initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 255/3 kt. A strong mid-level ridge that extends across Florida and the western Atlantic is forecast to slide eastward over the next few days causing the cyclone to move faster toward the west or west-northwestward. The track guidance has come into a bit better agreement this afternoon, with only the HWRF showing a track farther north over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous official forecast, and no significant adjustments to the earlier track forecast were required. Key Messages: 1. Iota is expected to strengthen and be a major hurricane when it approaches the coast of Central America. There is a risk of dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts across portions of Nicaragua and Honduras beginning Sunday night or early Monday. Hurricane Watches will likely be issued for a portion of this area tonight or early Saturday. 2. Through Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall from Iota may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding across portions of Haiti, Jamaica and Central America. Flooding and landslides from heavy rainfall could be significant across Central America given recovery efforts underway after Hurricane Eta. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 13.8N 74.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.7N 75.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 76.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 13.9N 77.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.2N 79.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 14.6N 81.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 15.0N 82.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 15.2N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/1800Z 14.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
  17. This looks straight up depressing for Nicaragua even if it were to slip NW. That's going to be another 72 hrs of floods and mudslides over areas already digging out of the aftermath of Eta.
  18. Yes. Also a 67 mph gust now reported near Dundee in Polk County.
  19. ACE is at 163 for the season. If 98L, possible future Iota develops into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, that should get us to 170. A little bit of irony in that. Several preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season, including CSU/RAMSDIS had 170 ACE, including myself early in the thread. Thought it unwise to forecast higher as it takes a lot of luck and a number of long-tracking high end intense hurricanes. Of course this season being dominated by near-to-land rapid intensification and weaker TCs, it's still pretty phenomenal we made it to 170. Thank the late season burst of hurricanes for powering ACE upwards. I had actually revised my number down a lot back in early October to around 140. Definitely busted on
  20. Downgraded. Punta Gorda just had a 69 mph wind gust.