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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Bristol picked up about a .5-.75". Was pouring pretty good there for a bit to make the roads covered and slick. It was fun getting into work. [emoji854]
  2. Intensive analysis of Hurricane Dorian has been released.
  3. Pouring in Bristol now. Early radar echoes all seemed mostly virga, but now seems like the column has moistened up enough for some moderate flakes. A nice surprise!
  4. Not going through the entire modern historical record, but it's not frequent. These are the most recent years that the North Atlantic Basin had higher ACE than the NW Pacific Basin. 1998 1999 2010 2017 2020 Interestingly, the two other hyperactive seasons in the Atlantic, 2004 and 2005, got stomped by the WPAC.
  5. Model evolution / trends over the past 12 hours are definitely swinging towards a major snowstorm event for the eastern half of the Valley. Also extreme SWVA to Roanoke looking better to avoid a potential sharp cuttoff around KTRI. I suppose I am cautiously optimistic now. See if this can hold serve on the next few runs to gain confidence.
  6. That 12z ECMWF run has peaked my excitement. I have been cautiously optimistic but now I am in full hype mode. I feel conservatively 3" is now a safe call for KTRI. Edit: Meh, maybe 2-3" would be the safe call.
  7. Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. [emoji102] JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction.
  8. This is a pretty big deal and thought it should go here.
  9. Yeah you can always live vicariously through New Englanders. [emoji25]
  10. Worth pointing out that Central America was hit very hard and we shouldn't forget that. Though Louisiana was certainly beat up this season, the US still has the resources to mitigate and assist our fellow citizens. We shouldn't forget them either. That being said, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and the SW Caribbean were already struggling. Millions of of people are suffering there economically. Now we have a humanitarian crisis as many localized regions are currently devastated. This was a horrific hurricane season.
  11. I think last Tuesday's outlook was a wrap on the 2020 season folks! ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. Forecaster Beven
  12. Modern? Well the most destructive is still going to be Katrina for what it did to the MS and LA coastlines. Most powerful? That's still going to be the Labor Day 1935 storm with its ridiculous sub 895 hPa landfall and 185 sustained winds.
  13. It's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure.
  14. I had hoped the southern eyewall would miss Providecia. It looks like they weren't so lucky. If you notice the image posted of the on-board radar panel here, the island was contained within the southern eyewall's strongest echoes. Though they may not have been crossed by the most intense portion of the inside eyewall edge nor highest core wind. This is only my speculation, of course. It is likely based on the radar image and these ground images that they did get hit by at least Cat 4 sustained winds and gusts even if they might have barely missed Iota's peak wind on the southern inside edge of the eyewall.
  15. FWIW, Eta was a slow mover and spent a long time over that shallow shelf. Though the mix likely recovered somewhat, it's likely only around ~28°C in places at the surface. So Iota has probably reached MPI at that latitude considering the warmer upper tropospheric temperatures. At any rate, it likely won't weaken too much prior to landfall. We're still looking at a high end Cat 4 landfall at least.
  16. Though Eta was a beautiful hurricane, I think Iota is going to sweep the pageant for the Atlantic 2020 hurricane season. The visible presentation on this thing is just incredible.
  17. I'd say they'll allow for both passes before any downgrade and if it is close they may keep it at steady state 160 mph sustained for continuity.
  18. Yeah the upshear convection is impressive right now. It will be interesting to see if the SFMR winds have come up on the new passes to coincide with the pressure falls measured during the last recon mission. Then again, it may have level off to around 140 kts.
  19. Slopes are still saturated from Eta. Make no mistake, about as high a mudflow / lahar event as your going to see for a number of volcanic edifices and steep river gorges.