Windspeed

Modeling and the shorter range is coming together to miss Ni'ihau and Kauai to the west. The main official guidance is also locking in just far enough west to breathe easier. We still have to watch for any late adjustments back east to avoid impacts, but I feel a lot better about the core not impacting those two islands. Also, yes, the surf and wave action should be insane through the next week.

This is now on the short end of the midrange at no less than 120 hrs out now. Yet, it still should be tabbed with unusual uncertainty due to the lower accuracy of modeling a trough capture interaction. Yet, these are severe modeled impacts we have to watch. I must also be clear that the GFS has had its issues. Really, all global OPs have due to various lacking of data sampling. That being said, five days is, well, five days. We're creeping closer into short-range territory. Does this hold? I must admit I don't like this appearance. Any undermodeling of that trough and cutoff evolution, and we're even further east. Never like to be east of these when it comes to a southwesterly steering current.

The 18z ECMWF operational is more gradual with Lowell's northward turn and is slower with the capture of both Karina and eventually Lowell by the mid-to-upper trough. Lowell passes by at a further distance from Ni'ihau and Kauai before turning back towards the NW as the trough fills/weakens. The 00z GFS is much faster with Karina's capture, and the trough has a stronger influence on Lowell, impacting both islands. To be clear, at this range, both OPs are too close for comfort, and I am sure this is going to further fuel speculation tomorrow. Here is the 00z ECMWF. Still misses to the west, but it appears to be a closer pass than the 18z run:

Edouard isn't moving away from the juiced environment fast enough, and unfortunately, the mesoscales are showing deep intense training cells over the same locations this afternoon and evening. Some of these feeders may back'build towards the GOM. Flooding is going to become a big problem.

As mentioned in a previous post, we still need to watch that developing buzzsaw (Lowell) for a northward turn in a few days. Some of the globals have been flirting with Kauai every other operational run. It may ultimately miss to the west, but that may not be nailed down yet until we see how trough interaction evolves.

Edouard's structure remains quite impressive this late AM. It doesn't appear these deep convective bands are going to let up anytime soon. It's no surprise that the rain totals are beginning to lead to flash flood emergencies.

Storm totals so far with the worst falling between Warren and West Livingston. Storm motion is slowing, but the circulation is holding together quite well.

A discussion we can take over to the main seasonal thread, but I just wanted to state that the record shown by Dr. Klotzbach is definitely in jeopardy. To reiterate the point already made in above posts, given the rate at which Edouard was organizing over a mere 24 hours, I concur that it would have become a hurricane. Formation a bit further southeast over the east-central GOM, and it may have even bombed into a major prior to landfall. Granted, the environmental conditions weren't perfect. Lingering pockets of stable airmass in the mid-levels did appear to interfere with the convective envelope at times. But shear was light, and the immediate surface temperatures prime for rapid deepening once the system mixed that out. Location of genesis and the short window of time were ultimately the most critical factors in Edouard's development.

000 WTNT65 KNHC 011925 TCUAT5 Tropical Storm Edouard Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052026 225 PM CDT Tue Sep 01 2026 ...EDOUARD MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JOHNSON BAYOU, LOUISIANA... WSR-88D radar data from Lake Charles, Louisiana, and Houston, Texas, indicate that Edouard made landfall near Johnson Bayou, Louisiana, at 220 PM CDT (1920 UTC). Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 60 mph (95 km/h). A National Ocean Service station near Texas Point, Texas, (TXPT2) recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (93 km/h) and a wind gust to 71 mph (114 km/h). SUMMARY OF 220 PM CDT...1920 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.7N 93.8W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Mahoney/Berg/Reinhart

We still do not have an official landfall per the NHC, though it should be momentarily. Edouard's vortex has been stubbornly hugging the shoreline just ESE of Sabine Pass for quite a while now.

Really rare hiccup from the NHC with their timestamps... Edit: The public advisory has been corrected.

Not playing devil's advocate, but it was a small core to begin with. I don't think it needed tightening so much as it just needed an intense inner band to erupt in close proximity to the nascent LLC. Once that happens, it's better able to absorb/feed off of the immediately high SSTs. It's essentially a feedbak loop. You need a strong cell to wrap and increase that inflow into the updraft, hence what we are seeing now. Sure, it doesn't hurt to be near the shoreline and moving over high heat content.

There is still a weaker component to the northern semicircle of the overall vortex, but compared to even three hours ago, this is a very significant improvement in core presentation.

Wow, look at that strong mesovortex wrap up at the tail end of the intensifying core band. Fascinating stuff watching this unfold on radar.

You know, interestingly, in the past thirty or so minutes since posting that, the old inner circulation or nascent core is getting absorbed by a strong band that is intensifying. That is what you want to see if you want strengthening, but it needs to wrap around to become a proto-eyewall feature. At any rate, such a strong band should be resulting in a significant expansion of convection / cold cloud burst on satellite soon.

The southern semicircle of the circulation continues to improve. However, the NE quadrant has simultaneously deteriorated on radar. I'm doubting we're going to see any significant intensification prior to landfall at this point, though there is still time for some further pressure fall and marginal increase in winds. A moderate 50-55 kt TS still seems quite possible, but a borderline hurricane would be surprising at this point. We would need to see nascent eyewall or core band developing, and that doesn't seem to be occurring. We've got, what, six hours remaining, give or take an hour?

Deeper cells appear to be trying to build around the small central vortex. Also, it does appear that the southern side of the circulation is beginning to fill in with precipitation somewhat and perhaps is feeling the lower central pressure with increasing low-level westerly flow. Now, to see if ongoing deeper convection does take off before the window closes this morning.

^ I concur. There were some fallacies pertaining to the current particular situation with Edouard versus just some rather highly detailed overexplaining of the prototypical pre-intensification process we see in early onset TCs with respect to shallow convection. At any rate, I wouldn't go so far as to say it was AI regurgitation. But I did scratch my head as I don't see how some of that applies here. We may very well see deep convection take off due to internal dynamics nearto Eduardo's small vortex this morning (and there are hints that may be starting to occur on radar and satellite), but I digress.

Gains in organization got us a TS and some slight increase in inflow and wind, but Edouard needs deeper cells to wrap the nascent core. A moist environment was sampled, but some pesky pockets of stable mid-level air mass may be inhibiting deeper growth. The forecast discussion anticipates convection in the preceding hours to landfall, which could quickly spin up such a tiny vortex. Otherwise, Edouard will have maxed out its potential here. I wouldn't say the system has outperformed yet. I think we suspected the system to get named. With the forecast calling for additional strengthening now, however, I dare say it will underperform if convection doesn't take off prior to landfall. Which I find amusing now, given where we were 24 hours ago.

No surprise. The MCS appears to be drilling down at that location with a very small vmax underway. We may have a depression. We'll see what the NHC does. I imagine they would at least go with a PTC at 11AM/10AM CT.

The HAFS suites like closing this off and bring a tropical storm into East Texas. As is typical with NGOM genesis, placement and timing remain critical. How fast can a tight vorticity develop? A small system like this has an intertwined advantage and several disadvantages. The main disadvantage is time. We're only looking at a small window of 24-36 hours here. The other is the environmental factor with marginal relative humidity over the adjacent landmass at present combined with dry airmass in the mid-levels countering any rapidly forming convective envelope. This could delay organization by landfall. In most cases, a small system should struggle as mid-level steering flow will mix in that airmass. But small systems can develop faster if the environmental factor is limited. Being so small is also an advantage if rapid development of intense mesoscale convection does occur and can persist. The immediate envelope moistens and persistent convection results in the formation of a small vortex under negligible shear. A large circulation would still be susceptible to pulling in the dry air. Negligible shear prevents dry mid-level airmass from advecting into a small vortex against the mid-level steering flow. SSTs are very high, so this system could outperform the TC models and SHIPs parameters if the organization gets going today. Regardless, I do like this getting named by landfall, and I'm going to be a bit bullish with this one. I like a better than a weak TS (40-50 kts) and perhaps even a moderate to strong TS (50-60 kts) by landfall. Too bullish? Yes, it's a tiny system. But I think convection will blossom today and shield off any dry air entrainment. I'll favor any small system moving over high SSTs with negligible shear with at least marginal supporting environmental factors to outperform versus a broad system when time is the biggest factor. Fortunately, time should limit anything stronger.

FWIW, the GFS this morning redevelops Dolly's remnants in the GOM and gives Texas a hurricane.

Agree with everything that has been said and discussed. We're all essentially watching if something can slip through and under a favorable environment north of the Antilles and time just right with an ECONUS ridge. Essentially, Andrew. However, that takes a lot of luck (or bad luck for perspective). I really don't expect much out of the MDR other than some early developing TCs that end up getting ripped apart. Too many reforming walls of shear that probably aren't going to leave us through Autumn. Additionally, we still have to watch the GOM and the WCARIB for something that might pop up out of a gyre. Those can sometimes get lucky with a wave breaking event to the east. The GOM is boiling and will be primed well into late October.

Long-range operationals this morning across the board are some of the most hostile shear parameters I can recall over the Atlantic Basin for early September in well over a decade. Perhaps even further back past previous dead seasonal peaks. This in of itself is quite fascinating.

I'm beating a dead horse here, but that is a horrible look. It would be nice to have at least one powerful long-tracker to, well, track. No use in complaining. It is what it is...