Windspeed

That's the thing, at 200+ hrs out, even 150+ hrs, really, trough vs ridge evolution is fluid and can change over a mere day of runs. If a pattern locks in place, fine. See if it holds. But it's just way too early. I only brought up the 18z because of that cutoff ULL placement. But it may not even be there by tomorrow's 12z. Overall, climatology says, yes, northern motion in the region north if the PR is usually OTS. But not if ridging builds back. We've got nothing else to do but explain why an OP solution is doing what it's doing. It's why we have a thread a week out from reality. It doesn't mean that will play out at all this early out.

Actually, the 18z is more of a Hugo hook, just displaced further east vs a comparable Floyd track. Floyd just drove west and turned north around ridge into weakness; no ULL influence. That mid-to-upper ULL over Florida that the GFS is now developing has to be focused upon in the coming week of runs. If potential Lee gets into the northern Leewards, near or north of PR, and drives NW, depending on timing, oh boy. That ULL develops with a New England ridge, it opens up the door for capture and landfall. This could evolve more west depending on how much ridging develops and how well-positioned the steering column plays out. Also that 300-200 hPa upper flow would be dangerous for intensity. But to caution, this is 200+ hrs out. So grain of salt.

12z GFS op missing the Leewards, however, there was a notable swing in the CONUS setup in 240-260 range vs previous runs. ULL over Florida and with increased heights over New England. The hurricane would potentially get driven near the Mid-Atlantic region. Might get interesting on this run... But, of course, this is late in the medium range. Main takeaway here is the WAR rebuilds into CONUS where previous runs it does not. See if this turns into a trend with this evening's runs.

Set of different data sets loaded. One also will use raw GFS for the UFS, while the other will simultaneously be used with sampled atmospheric data from reconnaissance. Obviously, that is only when recon is flying. Mainly to see the differences in output. That's really all I know; someone else may also want to chime in... Dr. Sundararaman (Gopal) Gopalakrishnan discussed this is a recent Weather Geeks podcast if you want to listen to him speak. It's a more evolved simulation platform with multi-outputs versus the older HWRF, which will likely be retired in a few years.

Both initial runs of the HAFS A and B have an intensifying hurricane by 100-126.

I don't think so. This is one heck of a healthy wave with evident broad turning in the low levels with an MLC already associated with the concentrated convection. With all of struggles over the MDR this season, regardless of the few systems that formed early, this one looks a go. Should be a long-tracking major hurricane. The big question isn't necessarily going to be if this can become a strong hurricane, but if it will end up a threat for the Lesser and Greater Antilles. Not mentioning the CONUS yet because it's just too early to know how/if the WAR will be there or break down.

To add to the previous post above about inland wind potential, I am curious how the core and southern semicircle of the cyclone will evolve as it increases forward motion across N.Florida and SE Georgia. The system will be interacting with the eastern trough. The potential for large swaths of downed old growth along major routes and interstates is there.

Wind interacts differently inland for a TC versus over the water or right at the coast. You get gusting bursts due to friction and turbulence. 100+ mph gusts are definitely possible if that is where the core traverses.

They still have time to leave, even if that time is short.

That doesn't seem unreasonable with this presentation... Things can change quickly for a TC when the mid-to-upper atmospheric environment cooperates. Idalia was still tilted and struggling a little over 24 hours ago.

It's no doubt an organizing outer concentric band. But the eyewall is ripping right now. By far the best it has looked. Idalia has a lot of banding features spiraling into even the outer concentric band. It very well may lead to a full on ERC, but it may still strengthen quite a bit before that can starve the current eyewall. We may see this level off intensification prior to landfall, but it could still deepen quite significantly tonight before that leveling occurs. Will be interesting to watch.

We're also at nearly 15k ft beam from Tampa. The mesos are going to stand out more. We can't see the lower vort precip in the LLC of the eyewall. It may be circular given closer range.

Aside from others, I'll eat some crow here. Granted, these two systems aren't from the MDR (which is still struggling due to the current pattern). Franklin formed out of a monsoon trough that collapsed. Idalia is the result of a CA surface trough. Either way, I gave up on the August window of activity. Not making excuses. We can have exceptions to the rule. Whether or not the MDR comes alive after Franklin and Idalia are gone will be the next course on the menu. It's still an El Niño year, but the Atlantic is now producing majors. Will it keep on keeping on remains to be seen.

Franklin over here with its big fat eyewall getting ignored...

Mr. Hazelton...

Papin!

There has been a dryslot on the western semicircle of the core for much of the late afternoon. But the eastern semicircle looks more like a merger over the past hour. There exist some very intense wrapping cells at present.

It's clearly due to me posting that there isn't time for an ERC prior to landfall. Murphy's Law. The eyewall appears to be intensifying, perhaps a merger? Perhaps the outer banding is involved in the new impressive bursts. At any rate, the pressure is falling, not steady state or rising, so no clue.

There must be a hidden thread just for weenies.

The next 12 hours are going to be intense. We're getting into a more favorable upper environment from this point until landfall that should continue to improve. I do expect the eyewall to take off tonight. It may not have time to enter into an ERC before landfall now, either. So it may very well still be deepening at landfall. I do think this will reach lower end Cat 4 as it is coming ashore. I'd like to imagine there's just not enough time for it to reach any maximum potential given the environment.

Wow, the recent convective burst over the past hour is just nuts! It's one of the more explosive ones I can recall. Uncertain if perhaps a little terrain / frictional influenced. No surprise at the resulting pressure drop regardless.

I stuck that here in banter being more of a personal experience thing, but I admit a little worry about getting down there. It normally takes about 17-22 hour drive shared between the better half. We should realistically expect an absolute mess. This involves a family member in Key West situation, but I am seriously considering canceling the trip despite that. I've got serious concerns about trees down all over the roads for many days post event across N.FL and S.GA.

I am expected in Key West on Friday. Driving down from Tennessee. I have been in hurricane aftermath paths before, but the forecasted turn and angle is going to bring down a lot of old growth along the interstate routes and major highways in S.GA and N.Florida. Some of these areas haven't seen this inland forecasted intensity in a long time. Idalia should still be packing a formidable punch as it is moving back towards the Atlantic with trough enhancement. This will also be a big circulation. To the point, expect a lot of downed trees everywhere.

Ol' Phil busted out the historical perspective. At 29°N, this is the lowest central pressure measured in a TC since records have been kept consistently (1979).

Franklin is without a secondary wind maxima for now, and it may not have yet peaked. Category 5 is a possibility later on during another pass, depending on how long this recon flight will be out there. Incredible storm for this region of the Atlantic. Of course, given record SSTs east of the CONUS, this isn't all that surprising to see Franklin crank given the favorable upper environment. Additionally, it had a very hard life up until a few days ago....lol.