Windspeed

Couplet coming for (TMEM) Memphis INTL Airport's Radar tower.

Yes. This is the Tor warned cell WNW of Memphis.

Right on cue...

Nice video looking down upon the river and adjacent communities of Quelimane to give a small glimpse of the coastal geography there.

I'd imagine a pretty dire surge situation for low-lying coastal communities there. Non-stop onshore onslaught of flow and fetch in the southern semicircle of the cyclone must be driving water into the port and river estuaries around Quelimane.

Freddy is crawling into this latest landfall. Some modeling allows the cyclone to stall just inland only to re-emerge off the coast (again) with another period of reintensification. Need to go back over ACE numbers, but Freddy may have even surpassed Ioke for all-time highest now.

Yeah we did actually have some strong gusts associated with winds mixing down during the quasi-linear event. I am certain we had gusts around 50 mph. But I have to admit, the winds that came several hours after with partly cloudy skies were more impressive. No surprise that there were more outages that followed last night. Looks like counties up in Kentucky got it worse than Tennessee however.

We lost power a few times, but only briefly. Some outages lingering here and there, but fortunately, the event was rather tame around KTRI. Nothing tornadic. Probably had a few strong gusts around 50-60 mph near S. Holston River/Lake area that brought down some trees. Some strong gusts in southern and eastern portions of Sullivan Co. Hope everyone fared as well elsewhere.

SEL3 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 240 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of North Georgia Western North Carolina Western South Carolina Eastern Tennessee Far southwest Virginia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 240 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A long-lived QLCS should continue to progress rapidly east across the southern Appalachians vicinity through early evening. Damaging winds and embedded tornadoes will be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Bristol TN to 30 miles southwest of Athens GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 61...WW 62... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams

SPC AC 031959 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes and scattered swaths of severe damaging winds are probable into this evening from Ohio Valley towards the southern Appalachians. ...20Z Update... ...OH Valley... An intense mid-level cyclone continues to move northeastward through the Lower OH Valley. Recent surface analysis placed the associated surface low near EVV, and sampled substantial pressure falls (greater than 8 mb over the last 2 hours) downstream across southern Indiana. Surface analysis also revealed a very sharp warm front extending eastward from the surface low to about 20 miles north of LEX (in northern KY), and then more southeastward to about 20 miles north of JKL. Given the strong mass response, some modest northward progression of this front is still possible, despite widespread cloud cover across the OH Valley. Strong convective line currently ongoing near the surface low will likely persist for at least the next few hours before the limited buoyancy associated with the narrowing lead to weakening. However, the surface low will continue to occlude, limiting downstream moisture advection and likely keeping buoyancy very limited across portions of eastern KY, southern OH, and western WV ahead of the approaching dry slot. As such, the severe threat has decreased enough to remove Enhanced probabilities. ...Eastern TN/Northern GA/East-Central AL... As addressed in recently issued MCD #247, a fast-moving line of storms will continue eastward in eastern TN, east-central AL, and northern GA. Buoyancy with remain rather limited, due to displacement from the cyclone. However, ascent along the front will continue to promote thunderstorms amid the warm and moist air mass over the region. Strong wind fields will continue to support the threat for damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 03/03/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Fri Mar 03 2023/ ...TN to OH Valleys and the central/southern Appalachians... Two primary areas of convective activity are ongoing from MS/AL/TN border area northwest to the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers. Leading pre-frontal squall, low-topped near the central MS/AL border with progressively deeper tops northward, will likely persist east-northeast this afternoon and reach the southern Appalachians by early evening. With broken cloudiness across AL and richer boundary-layer moisture, sampled by the 12Z LIX sounding, advecting north from the central Gulf Coast, this QLCS should ingest the northern gradient of peak surface-based buoyancy. This should result in intensification of the squall line with embedded QLCS tornadoes and damaging winds as the primary hazards. Farther north, broken convective bands are evident along the northern periphery of the warm sector near the MS/OH Rivers confluence, close to the deep surface cyclone. A robust surface pressure rise-fall couplet and the extreme low to deep-layer shear should compensate for the meager surface-based buoyancy and likely yield a mix of low-topped supercells and quasi-linear bowing segments, as convection rapidly spreads east-northeast. Tornadoes should be realized in sustained supercells and line-embedded mesovortices, a few of which could be significant. Given the supercell wind profiles and morning CAMs suggesting more broken convection, damaging winds will probably consist of scattered swaths of severe gusts from 60-80 mph. Severe potential today will be limited on the southern part by weakening DCVA and frontal convergence with southward extent, on the northern end by northward loss of boundary-layer destabilization away from the warm-frontal zone, and to the east by loss of both daytime heating and overall lift. As such, the unconditional probability gradient is kept rather broad on both sides, though the actual southern/northern/eastern cutoffs of severe could be abrupt. CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z CURRENT UTC TIME: 2016Z (3:16PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Mesoscale Discussion 0247 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Fri Mar 03 2023 Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee into parts of northern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 031912Z - 032045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...An additional watch will likely be needed for parts of eastern Tennessee and northern Georgia. Despite weaker thermodynamics, strong, veering low-level winds will support a risk for damaging winds and brief tornadoes. DISCUSSION...A fast moving line of storms will continue eastward through Middle Tennessee and northern Alabama. Strong wind fields continue to be sampled by regional VAD data. Some cloud cover has kept temperatures a bit subdued, particularly in north Georgia. Parts of eastern Tennessee have warmed into the mid 70s F. Between cooler temperatures, decreased moisture, and warmer temperatures aloft (especially with southward extent), the overall thermodynamic environment will likely be weaker than areas to the west. However, storm motion in addition to 50-70 kts within the boundary layer would support a threat for damaging winds even with relatively weak updrafts. Strong low-level shear would also promote some risk for brief tornadoes within the line of storms. A watch for parts of this region will likely be needed this afternoon. ..Wendt/Grams.. 03/03/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC... LAT...LON 34698479 35328439 36228371 36528303 36488267 36088257 35948260 34848317 33808397 33658427 33708460 34018494 34698479

SEL2 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far southeast Illinois Southern Indiana Kentucky * Effective this Friday afternoon from 1210 PM until 500 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely SUMMARY...Low-topped supercells embedded within broken line segments will sweep east-northeast across the Lower Ohio Valley and Kentucky through this afternoon. Tornadoes and damaging winds are the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northwest of Louisville KY to 65 miles east southeast of Bowling Green KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 24055. ...Grams

SEL1 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CST Fri Mar 3 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern Alabama Northwest Georgia Extreme southwest North Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Friday morning and afternoon from 1035 AM until 400 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible SUMMARY...Fast-moving QLCS will spread east-northeast from middle Tennessee and northwest Alabama with damaging winds and embedded tornadoes as the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northeast of Crossville TN to 25 miles south southwest of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25050. ...Grams

I think we should probably isolate a thread for this event. The ground is saturated. 55+ mph wind gusts alone are going to make for a very bad day for utility companies. But with potential strong storm modes plus strong LLJ, regardless of tornado potential, we're likely to see significant winds with this system mixing down to the surface. Widespread 65+ mph gusts seem quite possible, with numerous isolated 80+ mph winds. With such parameters in place, it wouldn't be much of a reach if the NPC upgrades to moderate for the Cumberland Plateau into Kentucky. Timing of cells and storm modes ironed out in the morning.

I am expecting a slow season for 2023. Anything active to hyperactive would really be unexpected. Though last year was a decline versus the decadal uptick in activity since 2016, we still had some strong long-trackers even if overall ACE was lower than previous seasons. This year, I believe a moderate El Nino will dominate the tropics and substropics. That being said, we could still have a couple of strong landfalls. And as has been repeated over and over again, it only takes one.

Gulf Stream SSTs vs very cold upper tropospheric temperatures at play here, which is fueling the convectively supportive instability for this hybrid system. The argument to be named operationally is warranted. I do believe it met requirements to be a subtropical cyclone. It may get reclassified as a nameless cyclone in reanalysis next year unless the NHC decides to jump on it overnight. The system should weaken tomorrow regardless.

KTRI could see an inch or so of accumulation. Sometimes these NW flow events can surprise and produce with enough lingering 700mb moisture in the Holston River Valley. That is if the EKY ranges and Clinch Mountain doesn't steal our bands. I'd imagine Holston Mountain, Shady Valley, Mountain City, Erwin and the Blue Ridge province areas like Roan Mountain, Boone, NC, etc. will get a 6+ thumping regardless. I don't think KTRI will get shut out, but I doubt anything more than an inch or two totals.

I think you can get a package for Radarscope for your Windows or Apple PC and your mobile platforms (Android or Apple OS).

[emoji849]

Best radar presentation yet. More symmetrical eyewall, though not fully closed ATM. The W to SW semicircle however is looking better organized and currently raking Grand Bahama, which should be ongoing for a while this afternoon with current motion.

Good for discussion, but I think dry air entrainment was a bigger factor yesterday through this morning. Upper tropospheric temperatures are cooler therefore 26-27°C OHC can be quite sufficent for evaporate induced strong lapse rates to drive convection. We've seen strong late hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic Basin over relatively moderate SSTs, even around the 26°C threshold as that threshold can drop several degrees based on upper environmental conditions. In other words, if Nicole can mix out the dry air, I do not think the moderate SSTs will be as big a deterrent for strengthening this evening. The Bahama landmasses are also not very big with respect to being a deterrent for strengthening as well. Perhaps for already intense hurricanes or stalled ones there, yes. But not one with a fairly decent relative forward motion. I do think Nicole will become a hurricane tonight despite the small interactions with land and the moderate SSTs if the core can be successful at mixing out the southerly fetch of a dry airmass. We shall see.