Windspeed

Beryl may end up being the most expensive Cat 1 landfall just from wind damage. Katrina was pretty high due to Miami. It's never good when you have an eyewall cross over a densely populated metropolitan and residential area, not even a Cat 1.

As has been repeated, an intensifying eyewall and associated bands with strong convection mix down more efficiently versus an eyewall that is falling apart with gusts that are merely gradient driven. I am not surprised by all the 80+ mph gust reports. There are plenty of examples of rapidly weakening category 3 hurricanes that had very spotty or limited 90-115 mph gusts. Though we have limited data currently, this same hurricane may have been exactly such an example on its landfall in the Yucatán. Most reports were unimpressive versus the reports out of Jamaica. There is no need to bring up Carriacou, Union, and the Grenadines, which were devastated. 100% certain Beryl will be retired.

Beryl appears to gradually be increasing forward motion. Must be feeling the trough. Flooding is occurring, but hopefully, Beryl can lift out by this afternoon, and the metro can avoid any trailing feeders off the GOM.

Landfall. Discussion....

Josh has 982 mb and dead calm, near the center of the eye. Official landfall is imminent. Edit: 981 now.

Where are you approximately? Edit: Nevermind, I see you're in Bay City.

Western eyewall as well. Surge must be coming off the lagoon / Matagorda Bay.

Subsidence helps to clear out an eye feature, but if you analyze the current structure of the core, you'll see the broad structure remains. Note the area of 50 kt + 2-km winds away in the NE quadrant. Shallow convection is too slow in process to force the contraction of the vortex and RMWs in the small window of time. We need to see explosive deep convection ASAP to drive rapid pressure falls and create a sink for contraction. (Image Source: Lidar from the LROSE project @ CSU)

We would need to see persistent intense CBs in the core, and that just hasn't occurred yet. Beryl is gradually improving but still lacks a well-formed eyewall. Good news so far to mitigate wind and surge. We're within the 12-hour window from landfall. Unless there is a rapid change in core convection, a Cat 2 is looking less likely.

Beryl's broad RMW and the lingering effects of stable airmass thanks to interaction with the ULL are all very critical and fortunate caveats to the evolving pristine upper environment and thermal support. Very little doubt in my mind that Beryl would have been a category 3 or 4 given a much earlier headstart of recovery off the Yucatán. Still, 18 hours is enough time for Beryl to rein in the vortex if it can build an eyewall by this afternoon and mix out what's left of the stable airmass. A category 2 landfall is still very reasonable.

Good discussion by Beven. When recon arrives, it will be interesting to see if the surface circulation is getting tugged any underneath the new MLC and if the intense CBs on the western periphery continue to be due to the onset of an eyewall. I will say that these convective bursts are not waning this evening. If anything, it's growing in coverage. But structure is an unknown until recon gets there with Beryl not being in range of radar.

Hypothetically, Beryl needs a strong eyewall already evolved and nearly constant CBs by at least tomorrow evening if we're presented with enough time to reach Category 3. The pressure needs to be in a nosedive and rein in that RMW to allow rapid intensification to occur. But something like Harvey? That is going to take extreme pressure drops in a 24-hour period to overcome Beryl's current structure. Harvey bottomed out at 937 mb at landfall. I have been shocked plenty of times during my obsession with this discipline, and this would no doubt be right up there near the most. Beryl may find itself under a pristine ULAC with northerly jetstreak enhancement, but there will still be a trade-off between intermittent gulps of dry air that may occur. I think a Category 2 is a safe forecast. A three should be the ceiling. But hell, there is always the absurd when it comes to 30°C SSTs to fuel it. We'll see what Beryl's structure is like in 12 hours.

I really don't understand why Ryan posted that image, especially without any context. It's two completely different scenarios, and it just misleads. I am astounded sometimes at professional mets. I realize they're human and susceptible to excitement and hype. The adrenaline gets to me sometimes as well. But there is a limit. This is not Harvey 2.0.... Good on Webb there. It deserved a good thorough explanation of why this is not the same situation to curb any fears for pre and post landfall.

Yes, Beryl's problem with a partial core, despite deep convection aiding in regenerating an MLC, is that it's not yet shielded off from the stable airmass that still lingers within the southern half of the circulation. The ULL is still too close and feeding that stable air into the mid-levels. And any nascent core is very prone to downdrafts in this scenario. So even this convection and attempt at a new core could rapidly collapse. We'll just have to see if it's resilient. If anything, this kind of continued bursting will moisten and assist in future convection. Obviously, the modest environmental conditions will continue to improve and become more favorable.

In less than six hours, Beryl went from devoid of any mid-level vortex to a partial eyewall. That's absurd. I had just analyzed the storm this morning and accepted, based on in situ recon and the stable airmass parked over the low-level circulation, that it was going to take at least another 24 to regenerate its core. Good grief... Tropical meteorology is the toughest for reason. Too much chaos.

Something else I keep noticing is a trend in the TC models to show an intense feeder or two off of the GOM long after Beryl is already well-inland and making the turn NE. These feeders could train over the same coastal regions of Texas and produce flash flooding. No where near as severe as Harvey, mind you, as Beryl should be lifting out of Texas much faster with trough interaction. But these bands off the GOM, given strong instability and training convection, do not take long to produce flash flooding. People in that region are hardened to flood-producing TCs. But they certainly don't need to deal with any more. Hopefully, Beryl's forward motion mitigates this.

The HAFS suite, in general, did an excellent job modeling Beryl's interactions with the ULL, including the dry stable airmass that now plagues its circulation this morning. Despite current conditions, it's important to note that persistent runs of these models, especially the HAFS-B, regenerate and tighten Beryl's vortex by the time it interacts with the Texas coast. Convection needs to burst and persist, not only regenerate an MLC, but stack the column if the RMW is to sufficiently tighten within an eyewall. Any delay in that process decreases the hurricane threat, and the official forecast could always come down. Still, as 40/70 Benchmark alluded to yesterday, a northward turn track adjacent to the Texas coast allows enough land interaction to assist Beryl in tightening the LLC. The NHC's forecast of 80 kts near the coast is quite reasonable. Mid-to-upper environmental conditions will continuously improve throughout this afternoon until landfall on Monday. With sufficient instability and divergence aloft, Beryl should be an intensifying hurricane through landfall. Hopefully, with the current delay and slow process of reorganizing today, we will avoid any rapid intensification on Monday. But a lot can change in 48-60 hours.

Beryl's mid-level vorticity is nonexistent this morning. The ULL is forcing extremely dry stable airmass into the remainder of Beryl's broader 700-400 hPa circulation. Without any compact MLC, all that remains is Beryl's surface low. Though that low remains very well-defined, the RMW is now over 60 miles at the surface. It's going to be a slower process for a core to rebuild and shield off the effects of all that lingering stable airmass. You can easily see the ULL is still pumping that airmass into the COC from the southwestern GOM on water vapor imagery. Beryl may need another 24 hours to produce enough convection over the center to regenerate a core. The current environmental state has squashed any concern I had of a potential major landfall yesterday. Simply put, Beryl just doesn't have enough time now. But I do think Beryl will eventually produce enough deep convection near the center to regenerate a mid-level vortex, and should have enough time to tighten its RMW and regain hurricane intensity, which the official forecast continues to call for, and remains well-supported by TC modeling. Beryl may end up with a larger core; therefore, wind and surge impacts could cover a larger area of Texas coastline.

Keep an eye on this convection that is building. It's in a motion that may wrap into the tilted vortex. It's also hinting of the higher heat content that the circulation will start moving over during the early morning hours.

Some good discussion on current and potential future structure of Beryl going on right now.

Based on reconnaissance, it looks like Beryl's MLC is decoupled or significantly titled downstream to the ENE of the low-level center. This is due to influences of the mid-to-upper level low over the western GOM. I anticipated this last night, and it was simulated in numerous TC models. But recon also did not find any other competing mid-level vorticity to the north. So, for now, we just have Beryl's dominant mid-level vortex. We'll have to wait and see if that MLC takes over by tomorrow or if the old low-level center regenerates a new vortex further southwest in track. Again, implications are high in both how quickly Beryl reintensifies and ultimately landfall location in Texas.

Shelf waters north of the Yucatán are relatively cool between March and July. This is a climatological norm for that part of the GOM due to persistent vertical transport of cold, deeper water onto shallow continental shelf north of the Yucatán, and upwelling from low-level trades. Additionally, some influence of drag off of the warm Yucatán Current (Gulf Stream), which is further east within the Yucatán channel, aid in cool water extending north. This persistent upwelling keeps SSTs several degrees Celsius below the warmer overall background GOM temperatures, usually ranging from 24 to 27°C along the northern Yucatán coast in June and July while the rest of the GOM ranges from 27-30°C. This typically halts intensification in TCs that track or wonder too close to there or delay reintensification of TCs moving back off of the peninsula into the GOM. But it's not a large surface area of ocean comparatively as SSTs increase substantially only about 100-150 miles north. As such, I wouldn't expect Beryl to immediately begin reintensification after reemerging over water until it's well northwest of the Yucatán, regardless of its core structure or upper-level environment.

Low-level reconnaissance is sampling the storm and should give us an idea of how close the COC is to the coast. Earlier, they flew through the strong convection to the north of Beryl, in the outer band, and there does not yet appear to be anything organized in the mid-levels out over the GOM. So, there is no sign of competing vorticity that was hinted at in earlier runs of the HAFS suite.

NHC 5PM discussion...

Isidore was a larger TC. It also stalled over the Yucatán for so long, it devolved into essentially very large surface/monsoonal trough. The boundary regions far away from the center kept firing intense convection, delaying low-level convergence in Isidore's broad center. The result was a sloppy mess that was only ever able to slowly reorganize. By the time Isidore had tightened its vortex, it was inland over Louisiana. I don't think it even reached Cat 1 again. Beryl may have to regenerate its low-level vortex, but it won't spend enough time inland today and should remain fairly compact. It isn't a large TC to begin with. Furthermore, though it may have some delay in low-level convergence due to convection north of the center, that's not occurring in all quadrants. The core should be able to reorganize fairly quickly tomorrow.