Windspeed

Still a pandemic. I doubt anyone would be making the trip into the Philippines. At least I am aware of none.

This may have to be tabbed a special indicator by the survey crew, not unlike the ripped up hospital parking stops for the Joplin EF5, but this rebar enforced concrete foundation was annihilated at a home site in Bremen.

Looks like ground scouring can be seen near Bremen.

Potential mountain snow.

The problem with having a "Category 6" based on Dorian is the limitations of categorically confining a value of time and motion. Dorian was horrible regardless, but even worse due to its slow motion. You cannot underestimate how much the long duration of sustained Category 5 winds did to magnify the devastation. In reality, anything above 155 mph sustained that persists for a slow mover is going to be magnified. There is no need for a Category 6. If it's a fast moving intense hurricane, the damage is going to be less than a slow moving intense hurricane due to inevitable structural failure caused by prolonged wind force.

It's currently not tropical or subtropical. At present it is a mid-lattidutinal cold core bomb cyclone. Down stream it could gain subtropical characteristics however as it is forecast to move over the Gulf Stream.

Yeah, and just to clarify my post, I certainly am not bashing the official forecast. I also clearly thought this would even outperform their intensity forecast with my Cat 4 call. The environment did look primed for RI as a hurricane, not just initial development. But sneaky micro-regional atmospheric conditions, i.e., upper-level northerlies off the central American continent versus mid-level steering flow must have played out as a deterrent here. The structure is just taking way to long to evolve.

lol, and then marginal mid level shear and structural core issues had other plans it seems. Rick may not even reach Cat 3. Something something that whole forecasting intensity is hard bit. [emoji849]

NHC is forecasting a Category 3 landfall for Hurricane Rick. But the core looks to be in a favorable environment for some beefy rapid intensity gains over the next 24 hours. Leaning towards Rick being a Category 4 landfall near or between Lázaro Cárdenas and Zihautanejo. Hopefully not a direct hit on either city.

Pretty impressive statistic here. I had thought the entire tropics, not just the Atlantic Basin, but globally, seemed too quiet. But no Category 3+ hurricanes in such a long period of time for early-to-mid Autumn is rare.

In early October, there were indicators of an active Caribbean around mid-to-late October. I had expected several more hurricanes including one more major hurricane by closing of shop in November. Well that appears to all be unlikely at this point. Beyond a marginal convective disturbance southeast of the Lesser Antilles, the basin appears to have shut down. Can't rule out one more hurricane but the potential is just not there for the time being.

Really? Man I must be on a different wavelength.

2003 had Isabel, which did a number on the coastal regions of the Mid-Atlantic while weakening due to its large size.

The list posted a page before had Donna, Carrie and Esther listed in the top 10; of course they were pre-satellite era hurricanes. Everything prior to satellite archive is based on shipping and land obs in and around those earlier historical systems that were reanalysized for ACE. So it might be best to post the top 10 since '66, which here that is along with a nice write-up by Brian McNoldy, a TC Researcher at The Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, Miami University. http://bmcnoldy.blogspot.com/2021/10/hurricane-sam-clinches-its-place-in.html This places Sam in the top five during the satellite era.

Going to be real close with Luis on the 5PM AST package if it hasn't transitioned by then. I think it will fall just short with transition occurring during the evening. Over calculated the numbers a smidgen. Inez is safe at this point. It really needs to stay tropical until 11PM AST and I don't think that will happen now. Transition is already underway. EDIT: Sam did indeed have enough tropical fire left in the furnace to remain a classified TC on 11PM AST/3AM GMT; therefore, Sam surpassed Luis before succumbing to the frontal trough. Still a very powerful PT low for any maritime shipping interests. That's all, folks.

Sam is now among the top 10 biggest ACE producers, kicking down Matthew. It should pass Esther and Allen on the next advisory to reach 8th. It might stay tropical long enough today even supplant Luis and reach 7th place. Going to be a close call on Inez.

Don't ever recall seeing such mature concentric eyewalls this far north. I suppose this type of thing was always possible as long as OHC is sufficient enough to support intense lapse rates and convection. Of course, colder upper tropospheric temps this time of year at this latitude combined with +26°C ought to do it.

Yeah, I'll reiterate wow here. Sam looks like it has reintensified this evening as it crossed over a +26 warm eddy within the Gulf Stream.

Sam has one more +26°C warm eddy to cross on its trek across the Gulf Stream. After that the SSTs drop off dramatically. However, ET transition should begin tomorrow with the trough ejecting off of Eastern Canada. Presentation is pretty darn good for a hurricane at ~40°N.

He's either a troll or a cry baby when we aren't observing TCs shelling out death and destruction in real-time. A score of C- for this season? lol... At any rate, it's Oct. 2nd. We've had seven hurricanes, four majors (two landfalling as a major), a landfalling upper Category 4 with unfortunate loss of life and significant damage to infrastructure that will be in the tens of billions USD. An ACE of 130+ with two months to go. Any questions? The MJO will phase active for the WATL in about another week that will persist into late month. This spells trouble for late season Caribbean / GOM activity close to land, or homegrown TCs even after the MDR declines. We can hope for shear over the SECONUS with Autumn troughs acting as a bit of protection, but perturbations in amplified waves might also time right for something to gain latitude under a favorable atmospheric environment, so we'll just have to play it by ear. Additonally, La Nina appears to be kicking into high gear now which should help keep late seasonal mid-to-upper level VWS somewhat abated across the Caribbean due to a limited EPAC convective envelope. I expect a few more hurricanes and at least one more major hurricane before the season closes.

Sam has maintained a ridiculous structure for a combination of latitude and Larry's cool wake. There is a cool eddy just NW of Sam's core that dips below 26°C, a region that Larry churned up a few weeks ago. Marginal OHC between 26-27°C exist further down the forecast track as baroclinic enhancement begins however. That should allow Sam to remain a strong hurricane for several more days, even though its time as a Category 4 may only linger a little further into Saturday afternoon. That puts Sam at over 4.25 days at that category since the 4AM AST package on Tuesday morning. This thing still looks gorgeous on visible with a lot of symmetry and could make it well into Sunday as a major hurricane.

The strong upper trough amplified by Sam's outflow is just too much for Victor to overcome here. It has probably peaked as a strong TS now.

Sam has been a Category 4 Major Hurricane for over 3.5 days. That's incredible. Gotta go all the way back to Irma (2017) to find an Atlantic hurricane this intense for such a long duration.

No as it still has banding features. With trough interaction commencing, I doubt it ever will.