Windspeed

About as clear a reformation as you're ever going to see and neat to have it visualized on quality radar. Interestingly, though shear is negative on the vortex due to tilt, in this case it will have bought Nicholas more time over water since the LLC that formed last night was very near to landfall. The new LLC forming under or closer to the MLC is going to be further NE. Still a sheared system though. The anticyclone is too far south of Nicholas. Whether a strong TS or minimal hurricane, this is still all about the heavy rain and flooding potential.

Looking for if/when it can develop a core. If a core does develop with enough lead time prior to land interaction or an increase in westerly 300 hPa flow, then we have a shot at getting Hurricane Nicholas. If the system struggles to develop a core, then it likely follows forecast guidance for intensity closely. That's the uncertainty that the TC models will struggle with, with respect to intensity, for at least the next 24 hours.

Larry still looks impressive on satellite. I thought it would look more devoid of cold cloudtops over the core at this point. Labrador province may actually see hurricane force winds. Especially given the fast forward motion + winds still mixing down via convective bands.

Larry has gained significant speed in forward motion. The core has moved over the cool Labrador Current, however, interaction with the strong mid-to-upper trough, baroclinic forcing and cooler upper tropospheric temperatures are allowing convection to persist. Larry may not weaken below hurricane intensity prior to landfall. Really, the core doesn't look that bad at all given extra-tropical transition has begun.

Yes, it's a pretty significant change into the midrange. It's just one operational run but there has definitely been a trend for something organizing and steered west across the MDR. The modeled pattern does not support a recurve so whatever would hypothetically develop would have to be watched for the Caribbean and Western Atlantic. You can see this clearly with stronger WAR 500 dm heights extending over the SECONUS.

Definitely going to be their worst hit since Odile. Of course Odile was a Category 4. But this will still pack quite a punch being a strengthening cyclone. Interesting to see what Josh samples.

Olafs' eyewall looks to be intensifying right into landfall here. Cabo San Lucas is definitely in for a wild night / morning.

Hurricane Olaf has developed the dreaded pinehole eye and is forecast by the NHC to get dangerously close to Cabo San Lucas tomorrow. Hope this does not rapidly intensify prior to any land interaction there.

Agreed. My post is intended to give a ceiling for any potential reintensification. It would still be tough for Larry to regain major hurricane status given its broad windfield. Most likely it may just become more efficient at mixing down winds to remain a hurricane. Perhaps regain Category 2 intensity at best. Current maximum winds on the 11AM AST advisory is 90 mph sustained.

Are those your tweets? I've interacted with your tweets a few times over the years. "yconsor", "jconsor", I suppose that didn't require much detective work there. lol.. At any rate, Larry is looking better on satellite today, even improved in a way that an eyewall may be rebuilding. Recon should be interesting. If a strong eyewall exists, those 100+ kt 850 hPa winds may start mixing down better. Additionally, Larry still has several days to traverse sufficiently warm SSTs for reintensification given that it will be moving at a quicker pace. Shallow OHC, even at 27°C will support sufficient lapse rates in a large hurricane if it is moving fast enough and has adequate baroclinic support, which it looks like Larry will be given excellent support. Think Lorenzo in 2019. It was large and yet with excellent atmospheric dynamics pulled off Cat 5 intensity with shallow ~27°C SSTs. Larry has a larger/broader circulation than Lorenzo however, so I do not think it could pull off high end intensity of Category 4, but it certainly could tighten the gradient enough to regain major hurricane status.

Not mid-level shear though. This is favorable upper level divergent shear in the exit region of a digging upper trough. Just saying it wasn't in an unfavorable location for continued strengthening.

Larry's size is now what is impressive here. Yeah, yadda yadda Cat 5 stuff. But this is a true beastly maritime cyclone, period. Ridiculous long period wave heights being generated by this monster. This is the stuff of nightmares for shipping interests.

The small low-level vorticity maximum that developed is what got this going. Given another day or two, yadda yadda, would have probably been a hurricane.

Just edit your original post for the thread and change the title.

@SnowenOutThere If you start a tropical thread, you own it and keep it updated. [emoji16]

Looks like TS Mindy. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

Is not the NYC Post a mongering tabloid? *looks at the owning company* lol, yeah...

Just satellite estimates. Unsure if the Japan-based recon project from several years ago is still a thing. ADT unfortunately isn't the best with small 'canes/typhoons that have pinehole eyes. Hence 945 mb / 115 kts at present via latest estimates. JTWC notes this issue in its prognostic reasoning:

A little overzealous over night at a TS being "likely" in my post but there does appear to be broad low-level circulation with banding developing on the southeast side. There's assymetry and subtropical characteristics. Recon is not scheduled. NHC gives a medium chance of genesis. It's not got a lot of time prior to the panhandle but could gain enough organization to get classified.

Looks like a low-level circulation is forming tonight. Quite evident on shortwave too. Good call on the thread. A tropical storm by landfall is looking likely now.