Windspeed

The mid-to-upper flow around the ULL over the western GOM combined with Beryl's forward motion seems to have thrown a wrench into forecast modeling. Beryl's center is north of the EPS again. The OPs have continued to shift north. This does two things: 1) obviously increases threat up the Texas coastline and 2) tracks Beryl further away from the influences of shear and stable airmass and into a region of higher divergence aloft. How well does Beryl's core hold together this evening before reemerging? How quickly can the vortex regenerate? Honestly, I am getting a little uneasy for a potential major hurricane landfall now.

It appears as if the NHC is going to wait until the center crosses Akumal to declare an official landfall. I say the southern tip of Cozumel got robbed! All jokes aside, it's been fascinating watching Beryl's structure morph with the ULL overnight.

The radar out of Cancun is delayed. But radar out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba shows the center of circulation is near the southern tip of Cozumel. It's very close to being an official landfall there.

Looks like what's left of the NW eyewall is weakening rapidly on radar. Notice the end of the animation: As the band crosses Cozumel, it falls apart. Edit: That may look more rapid due to absent data on radar. There is a blank sector in the beam in the direction down the Rivera Maya coastline. Not to complain, it's nice to have access to radar down there. But the array is situated very poorly by the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional for the beam coverage to be so bad for their own shoreline.

Beryl is minutes away from its second landfall. The NW eyewall is currently over Cozumel Island. Edit: Notice the influence the flow around the ULL has on Beryl, now pulling on the CDO. You can see the ULL stretching the cloudtop canopy towards the NNW.

If shear does not abate while Beryl is over the Yucatán, the tilted vortex, deprived of high oceanic heat content to sustain updrafts, will rapidly shear off. Even with just a short amount of time, there won't be strong enough updrafts to keep the mid-level circulation driven from the low-level circulation, and they will separate. Both HAFS models simulate this well in their 0z runs. On the other hand, shear should begin to decrease as Beryl moves into the southwestern GOM. Beryl should remain a compact surface low. The better environment may allow a vortex to regenerate quickly.

Beryl's vortex is tilted again. Shear is winning for now. That being said, the NW quadrant of the eyewall appears strong on radar. It also shows up / aligns perfectly with colorized IR, that section of eyewall (purples), which is actually so well defined right now because strong flow aloft is countering the overshooting top. Anyhow, Beryl will still pack a punch where that section of eyewall crosses the shoreline.

That's exactly the scenario when a TCHP map becomes critical. It's why we can have a Category 5 make landfall along GOM shoreline, where THCP maps are negligible, if the hurricane does not stall. Hence why we have Camille and Michael in the record books. The shallow shelf was above 29°C at 10 meters when those TCs crossed over it. But a slow-moving Category 4 or 5 would upwell cooler water due its own upwelling prior to landfall if it is moving too slow. Intensity hangs on forward motion in those cases. We have even seen slow-moving hurricanes like Harvey reach upper Category 4 over the shallow shelf with negligible TCHP. But it moved inland just in time before its upwelling mattered. But if you tried to forecast intensity based on THCP maps alone, without regards to the actual immediate shallow SSTs, you would always assume TCs like Dean, Gilbert, Allen, Felix, Camille, Michael, etc., etc., would all be weakening, because they crossed over a section of the TCHP map that had negligible values. Simply put, forward motion is critical. Again, Harvey in 2017 is a great example. It continued to intensify into an upper Category 4 hurricane through landfall, right over the shallow shelf of the SE Texas coast, but moved inland before its own upwelling became an issue. The SSTs were at 30°C however. Still, if Harvey had taken longer to move inland, it may have halted its own intensification.

I should clarify that TCHP maps are very misleading. They should put a warning label on them for fast-moving hurricanes. Beryl does not care what's below 30 meters when it is essentially moving too fast to utilize anything but the immediate shallow layer, which within 10 meters is pushing 30°C. I only give regards to depth with slower moving TCs. That is when TCHP maps become critical. For something moving at 20 MPH, all you need to give regards to is the actual SSTs.

And yes, the high shallow-layer SSTs are obviously a huge reason Beryl has been able to keep its strong vortex intact. Persistent strong updrafts so far have won the battle against any mid-level dry intrusions and downdrafts. Those have occurred. But Beryl rebounds every single time. Bery has also just been, well, lucky. Very lucky. How close can a vorticity maximum at 500 hPa flirt with disaster? Beryl is now the case study. It has been on the cusp of 25+ kts of shear numerous times the past 36 hours, and yet here it is still maintaining. TCHP at depth really doesn't matter too much right now either. It's the shallow immediate surface layer of 29-30° that is driving Beryl's vortex. Beryl's motion is way too fast at 20+ MPH for deep oceanic heat content to matter.

The eye is presently covered by high cirrus, but if you look closely, there are convective towers rotating around all quadrants of the eyewall. Shooting overtops just remain restricted to the southeast. In other words, the vortex remains healthy. Obviously, Beryl is not even within a moderately favorable upper environment, and a system that did not have such a well-formed vortex would struggle way worse. But Beryl has remained just barely outside the stronger axis of shear to avoid a breakdown of its strong vortex, even when it has tilted to nearly the breaking point. Yet, if anything, Beryl has actually recovered some this afternoon/evening to allow it to be, in the least, a steady-state from the previous weakening downtrend versus last night and this morning. If the ULL can retrograde west with some haste while partially filling due to Beryl's 300-150 hPa outflow, the hurricane might not weaken much further beyond land interaction. This presents some interesting possibilities for high intensity in the GOM. On the other hand, the ULL may not cooperate with Beryl, and shear could still take Beryl's vortex out at any time. We'll just have to see how this evolves.

Thanks to Beryl, the Atlantic will have an ACE of at least 30-35 heading into ASO. The basin would only need to produce 130 more points, give or take, during the heart the season to satisfy the definition of hyperactive (ACE > 175% of the median). Not guaranteed, mind you, but it would take an Atlanta Falcon's Superbowl type epic failure to not reach 160 ACE now, and the kind of forecast bust to perhaps make a climatologist reconsider their career path. Edit: Updating the numbers here a bit. The old median was 96.7 (1951-2020), which I think is still used by NOAA and some other climate agencies. However, CSU's Tropical Climatological Division has changed the median range from 1991 to 2020. Obviously, that removed nearly two decades of pre-satellite era datum. Furthermore, the last three decades have been more active regardless of any satellite-influenced bias. At any rate, the new median is 122.5, which is much higher. CSU has real-time monitoring and has pretty much become the defacto tropical climatology center. I can't see why their index wouldn't be reputable. 170% of 122.5 would target a 208.25 ACE value for a hyperactive season.

That is located here for a perspective of distance from the SW shoreline.

I had to step away. A busy day and trying to keep tabs. But unfortunately, yes, the northern eyewall is now over the southwestern shoreline of Jamaica. Ouch!...

This is the recorded update/live stream from the NHC director, Mike Brennan.

Yes, the tip of the peninsula. But that is mostly a coastal reserve down to Portland Point. The closest communities of Shearer's Heights near Portland, Rocky Point, etc., may have just missed the inner periphery of the northern eyewall on that closest pass, just based on radar observation. It was definitely too close for comfort, however.

The worst of Beryl still remains just offshore. Again, hopefully, no sudden jogs to the north that would get the inside of the eyewall over the southern Jamaican shoreline, as Beryl's northern eyewall looks quite nasty. I should stress, I am referring to the 10m wind at sea level. Edit: As before, I stress that wind gusts in the higher elevations along the ridges of the Blue Mountains may still be experiencing extreme hurricane force gusts due to their altitude within the northern circulation.

That is a pretty stunning recovery by Beryl in satellite presentation. Not surprising, given the appearance of the core on radar currently.

Sheesh, talk about a close shave. The outside of the eyewall is going to shave the small peninsula, but unless there is a jog north, the shoreline is going to miss the worst 10m winds of Beryl. Granted, there may still be higher wind gusts up on the ridges and higher elevations within the circulation.

Beryl's eye is just starting to come into range from the radar site in Pilon, Cuba. The returns from the northern eyewall reveal it looks as it should given this morning's most recent recon data. Beryl is still an intense hurricane for now, despite moderate shear. There is still time for weakening prior to impacts on Jamaica, but the window is closing. Hopefully, the northern eyewall can miss to the south.

It's 6AM-3AM depending on where you are, stateside. That's why it's quiet. It even got slow in here yesterday morning...

Interesting exchange between Hazelton and Webb. RE: Beryl's intensity in the NW Caribbean will have big influences on track evolution in the GOM. A stronger hurricane may help cut-off the TUTT faster, leading to an ULL that may retrograde faster over the GOM. This would have two impacts: 1) ventilate Beryl versus shear it and 2) allow Beryl to slip towards the weakness. Again, obviously, that scenario requires a stronger hurricane prior to Yucatan interaction, and Beryl could be significantly degraded there instead; however, it bears close watch of modeling trends with a focus on the upper levels.

The larger eye is completely covered by high cirrus right now. But the cloudtops are not warming. Perhaps the flow above 200 hPa is blowing over top of the eye from the SW, but so far, it looks like the core is overcoming the upper level environment with a vengeance.. OHC is very high here. Diurnal influences and strong convection are winning the night for Beryl at present. If anything, the CDO has expanded from the SW quadrant.

Like clockwork, watch the intense CBs and overall CDO structure rapidly improving on satellite. That was perfect timing for recon. It looks like Beryl is back on the upswing. Perhaps the EWRC had already completed, and the core is taking off again...