Windspeed

Looks like the inner core has weakened somewhat, likely due to land interaction and some disruption from the terrain, as the eye has filled in partially. Makes little difference as these training bands remain the biggest impact.

Looks like TJUA/NOAA's WSR-88D has gone down. Was really hoping it would stay online to estimate these absurd totals, which have already topped 15+ near the tower. Edit: Came back online. Latest images...

Unfortunately the slow and steady angle of approach is pretty much a worst case scenario from a flooding perspective. The core has only clipped the higher terrain, it is not weakening. But it's driving the southerly feed of moisture off the Carribean right over the island, with orographic enhancement. Maria was horrible and I don't want to say Fiona will eclipse that in impacts. But it may outperform even Georges from a flooding event. This is looking really bad.

We don't have a CONUS major hurricane so season canceled. [emoji849]

Are you saying done deal as in no US hit? PR is the US. Your angle there sounds like you were focusing on the CONUS. At any rate, Fiona is crawling and the worst of the hurricane (heavy precip) is going to drag prolonged over the heart of the island. Those folks are hurricane hardened, but flash flooding is always worrisome to life and infrastructure. Could see some nasty totals and a mudslide threat.

I mean even now the mid level canopy/circulation is already tilted to the E/ENE of the low level vorticity maximum. A strong persistent convective envelope has allowed TCG to occur way in advance of modeling, hence now the TD. But it's going to be a prolonged struggle. It has certainly surprised already, but the same environment may keep it at best a weak TS until it reaches the northern Antilles.

Shear may also impart track adjustments if the upper level vector is southwesterly. I'd stay it's not a horribly confident track position for the DR/Haiti at this stage. I'd be more inclined to see some slight poleward adjustments if the LLC gets tugged north of west downstream. Of course that relies on there being persistent deep convection. Long way to go. May be over the DR or might get tugged slightly north of the GAs. Patience will be a virtue watching this track verify.

Not expecting anything in the short-to-midrange. Really just need to survive as a disturbance and get better dynamics after the wave breaking event. There may be some pretty good dynamics to enhance whatever 96L is / wave near the GA or just north of it. This means a lot of boring watching until next week. I think this could be a player if it's positioned well at that time. Specifically this setup. Any tropical surface low under that is going to intensify: This is borderline long range however. So really how and when those upper dynamics set up is a huge ?. ECMWF is actually faster at kicking out the TUTT. So all we can do is watch how modeling evolves and if there is a disturbance in the vicinity, if that would be 96L or something behind it.

A potential strong mid-to-upper anticyclonic wave breaking event is modeled by the 12z GFS between 72 and 144 hrs off the SECONUS that would impose shear. However, if the system can persist and position itself just north or near to the Bahamas in 5-6 days, a very favorable upper pattern may unfold for whatever potential disturbance would be in the area. There are major discrepancies between the operational GFS and ECMWF. GFS is strong with unfavorable shear out to 200 hours vs the Euro which is more favorable in the mid range. The GFS creates a mega favorable upper pattern in the 200 hrs range however. Probably would be a dangerous setup if this can make it to around Bahamas/S Florida/Cuba with an ECONUS build in heights, but that's getting into the long range, so just unknown chaos from 200+ hrs. At least something to watch.

There a brief window of semi-favorable upper forcing next week versus the current blunt trauma across the MDR if the AEW can hold together. We'll see if it can hold together on approach to the Lesser Antilles.

Interesting thread/discussion. Of note, the entire Northern Hemisphere is only 55% of normal ACE for year date.

Idub thee a new Public Service Announcement. It will be known as the Idub PSA or IPSA. IPSA is a new non-profit organization to remind folks every day for the remainder of the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season that a hyperactive season (ACE of 165+) will not occur in 2022. IPSA will be on repeat every day to remind you that though it was supposed to be hyperactive, the year is not hyperactive. Nor will it become hyperactive. So do not expect it to become hyperactive, even though it was supposed to. But you need to be reminded of this. You need it. Absolutely not hyperactive. IPSA. Every. Day.

Here is a recent ASCAT that puts perspective on how large and elongated the broad SW to NE oriented gyre remains for 91L. Point of TCG is very much still an uncertainty as it's too chaotic for any global to simulate with a high degree of accuracy which blob becomes dominate. So I would continue taking track resolutions with a grain of salt until we have a specific tighter low level vorticiy maximum organize and track/model. Admittedly, the northeastern most MCS is looking better at the moment. But it needs that SW MCS to die out to counter the continued elongation of the surface trough.

We've had something like 8 or 9 active to hyperactive years in a row. Without the ridiculous subtropical wave breaking persisting abnormally long into the ASO this year, the general consensus would have most likely been correct. That is it was supposed to be active and even hyperactive. We've also got 8 more weeks to play with. But I wouldn't sweat it.

The beastly annular Super Typhoon Hinnamnor ongoing in the WPAC may threaten landfall near Okinawa in the coming days. Could be some interesting direction changes in its track with respect to the strong block and Fujiwara interaction to a developing TC to its south. Though as strong as Hinnamnor is and the upper ridge it is inducing, the extreme southern bend by the TC mesh models might be overdone as the second system may get sheared off and remain weak.

One thing is for certain, whatever pattern evolves in place for the remainder of the Atantic hurricane season and Western Hemisphere, the ongoing La Niña is going to be one of the strongest well into the Winter months.

A potential effect of the monsoonal depression persisting over the same location for so long is that the elongated surface gyre with multiple MCSs is likely cooling SSTs a degree or two to that central and significant location of the MDR. Though 91L may eventually go on to organize into a TC and move on into the Western or Northwestern Atlantic basin, such a long duration broad convectively active gyre may leave a large area of sub 28° SSTs for systems that traverse that locale down the road. Though it's still warm early September in the tropics so that should rebound some.

91L is an elongated mess right now with competing clusters of storms. There no longer appears to be any minimally organized surface vorticity with either cluster and just an overall broad SWrly to NErly stretched surface low. Until some deeper convection can concentrate along the axis somewhere and spawn a tighter vortmax, all we've got are the globals that simulate genesis. But these may be far off from where the actual point/location of TCG occurs IRL, if at all. So it might be best to consider and remind of the great uncertainty with any track guidance, as a 200 mile difference from TCG in the NE region of the wave is going to be modeled substantially different than TCG occurring in the SW most region of the wave, with varying degrees of resolved guidance.

Sarcasm aside, it's going to get active. No need to throw in the towel prior to peak. I'm down for a bunch of storms without them hitting the CONUS anyway and perhaps that will play out. Interesting to track minus the devastation we've experienced in recent years. And if it plays out that 2022 is a huge bust and the season remains silent, so be it. It's been a crazy stretch of years.

Then leave? We can handle the dead season and take it from here.[emoji846]

lol busting out the sock now eh?

lol bless your heart. You don't have a major to ravage the coastline. Guess you'll move on to a subforum Winter thread now? Peace out, homeslice!

Yeah there is a plethora of research on volcanic aerosols either from a coolant or greenhouse influence via SO2 or CO2 as it relates to specific large eruptive output. But Tonga is unique in that it forced a tremendous amount of H20 water vapor into the stratosphere rapidly. I suppose that's posing new questions about how and to what effects that may have where it appears the research is far more limited.

Yes, the large Tonga eruption. There is chatter ongoing that it might be having some subtle influence on present macro scale patterns like current ENSO state but it's early on speculation and just a hypothesis. I do not think it has been scientifically linked via research or proven yet.