Windspeed

The setup for early-to-mid May could be a volatile one for strong storms for the Mississippi and Tennessee Valley. Potent shortwaves enhanced by southwesterly jet out of Mexico, cooler than normal upper levels in May, advancing dry lines out of Texas, strong bulk shear, etc.; it only takes one of those surface lows to come in line to make for a memorable event. Yes, obviously not wanting to overhype so far in advance. Yes, it's Spring and there shall be storms with increasing juicy Gulf moisture as per the norm, but the atmosphere may very well be conducive for at least one strong Southern outbreak.

Summary on the Jacksonville, AL tornado that was rated an EF3. Considering the area it passed through, it's amazing there were no deaths and greater numbers of injured. https://www.weather.gov/bmx/event_03192018_jacksonville

Haha nice work, Josh! I headbanged a little. Good luck on your chases this year. May they be as successful as 2017, though hopefully less witnessing to devestation of densely populated areas. Edit: *2017

Marcus is traversing cooler waters and weakening as expected. Without respite, however, another cyclone is intensifying rapidly out of the Torres Strait and moving into the Gulf of Carpentaria. Cyclone Nora already has a clearing eye surrounded by -80°C tops and is on the way to becoming severe. The system is moving through an increasingly favorable environment for significant intensification and could interact with land as an intense cyclone. A more unfavorable environment late on the forecast period and slow movement may allow weakening prior to landfall of the cyclone's core. But that same slow movement may exacerbate flooding.

Marcus will definitely be among the most powerful tropical cyclones of 2018:

Severe Cyclone Marcus is a Category 5 on the Australian scale. It would probably be a Cat 5 on the US and Japan scales at some point as well. The cyclone looks to have completed an ERC and the eye that was partially covered in cloud debris appears to be clearing again. Dvorak is closing on AdjT#7 and 135 kts. The CDO is symmetrical with a thick ring of -80°C tops and MW representive of an intense eyewall. Here's the current Aus Met advisory:

That was likely a violent long-tracker unfortunately.

I was referring to the cell between Cullman / Good Hope i65 and Arley, AL. Though the rotation has weakened now.

Cell ENE of Arley, AL probably about to be tornado warned.

Cullman cell is intense. Looks like they are getting rocked with possible 2-3" hail over downtown.

The strong cell / updraft SE of Addison, AL looks like it may be on the verge of producing. Signs of a couplet forming.

Cell near the state line is bearing down on i-65. Looks more and more impressive. Will pass very near Ardmore.

That's an impressive donut meso on the state line cell...

That cell near the AL/TN line may be trying...

This was earlier as the couplet was moving through Russellville.

Tight couplet west of Russellville, AL.

That is a nasty hail core on the super cell near Belmont in Tishomingo County, MS.

Today's SPC PWO risk graphic for posterity.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0014.html

Good to know. Thanks!

Yikes...

Good morning. I suspect we're in for a long evening and night. Good luck to everyone as far as hail or wind damage. And don't forget to unplug your sensitive electronics and hardware if you're going to be away from your home this afternoon-evening. Sometimes surge & ups fail and warranties can't replace everything.

Cyclone Marcus has been quite nuisance for Darwin and Kimberley in N. Australia the past few days. The core will be pulling away from the coast on Monday and will put on quite a show this week in the SE Indian Ocean. Forecast reasoning and modeling suggests a rapidly intensifying and prolonged cyclone event and Marcus may reach Category 5. Fortunately it will be doing so a good distance away from land.

**Warning: Loud volume with explicit language** I saw this video on another site that mentioned near Etowah. Save your ears and adjust volume down prior to viewing.

SPC is definitely leaving the door open for a possible upgrade as well: "Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases and the centroid of severe coverage is better established."