Windspeed

That cell near the AL/TN line may be trying...

This was earlier as the couplet was moving through Russellville.

Tight couplet west of Russellville, AL.

That is a nasty hail core on the super cell near Belmont in Tishomingo County, MS.

Today's SPC PWO risk graphic for posterity.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0014.html

Good to know. Thanks!

Yikes...

Good morning. I suspect we're in for a long evening and night. Good luck to everyone as far as hail or wind damage. And don't forget to unplug your sensitive electronics and hardware if you're going to be away from your home this afternoon-evening. Sometimes surge & ups fail and warranties can't replace everything.

Cyclone Marcus has been quite nuisance for Darwin and Kimberley in N. Australia the past few days. The core will be pulling away from the coast on Monday and will put on quite a show this week in the SE Indian Ocean. Forecast reasoning and modeling suggests a rapidly intensifying and prolonged cyclone event and Marcus may reach Category 5. Fortunately it will be doing so a good distance away from land.

**Warning: Loud volume with explicit language** I saw this video on another site that mentioned near Etowah. Save your ears and adjust volume down prior to viewing.

SPC is definitely leaving the door open for a possible upgrade as well: "Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases and the centroid of severe coverage is better established."

The Lawrenceburg footage is very intense. Perhaps the most violent tornado ever recorded in Tennessee on video. Though the 20 mile path traversed sparsely populated communities, still quite miraculous that it resulted in no deaths.

Day of the EF-4 Henryville, Ind. tornado: ..and that same day near Chattanooga, an EF-3 hit Ooltewah and Cleveland, Tenn., and also this EF-2 in Etowah:

Those super cells earlier produced some minor wind damage reports but nothing tornadic fortunately. Probably haven't seen the last FFWs tonight though. Some serious heavy rainfall in these cells over NE AL and NW GA.

Some organizing supercells moving towards north-central Alabama. Weak rotation but nothing yet tornadic.

Gita is a gorgeous cyclone. The status is currently at Category 4. Though it temporarily reached Category 5 yesterday, it has maintained a fairly steady large eye and taken on some annular characteristics. A reminder that categories in the S. Pacific and Australia are not the same as the N. Pacific and N. Atlantic.

Did it not snow fairly significantly in the eastern Valley following weekend after the March 12-13th event as well? I believe we were around 14" officially at KTRI for the Blizzard of '93 event, though closer to 18" on average at our house. But later that next week I seem to recall an additional 3-6" off a seperate clipper. Edit: Nope, I'm getting the '96 blizzard mixed up with the '93 blizzard. Also, looking at the intervals of time between major blizzards during my childhood and teenage years is depressing.

Severe Cylcone Gita is churning away in the S. Pacific near Tonga. It is still classified a Cat 4 based on latest advisory, though, based on over-night imagery, it may have weakened temporarily or gone through an ERC. That process appears to have completed as the eye is again clearing out. The core will cross through a favorable environment and higher SSTs the next 24-48 hours. As such, Gita may not yet have reached its maximum intensity. The core will pass very close if not over the island of Ono-i-Lau very close to or at Cat 5 intensity.

https://africatimes.com/2018/01/05/madagascar-prepares-for-tropical-storm-ava-impacts/

A new peer-reviewed study in the British Royal Meteorological Society journal Weather is proposing that Super Typhoon Haiyan is likely the most intense cyclone ever observed in the Satellite Era. They believe the center eye pressure peaked near 860 mb. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wea.3045/full I have always argued that Haiyan remains the most intense cyclone we have witnessed in modern times. Had there been reconnaissance, no other cyclone's intensity data sets would top it. This paper puts that in perspective for me. I had no idea the station reading at Guiuan existed. Recorded 18 miles from center fix and measured to 910 mb, that observation is bloody insane! Even loosely estimating gradient, a center pressure of 866 mb is calculated. The authors settled on 861 mb and rounded to 860 mb based on a few variables. The eyewall had held a steady state in the 30 hrs following the last visible completion of an ERC. The coldest tower tops around the immediate wall were not warming at the recording of that surface pressure. The diameter of the eye had actually decreased slightly. Given Haiyan was positioned against the southern periphery of an amplified subtropical ridge (STR) at the time, imbedded in an above mean surface pressure regime, the pressure gradient most likely was not loose at that obs timestamp. They still did not go with the tightest gradient scenario however. The following is an excellent write-up by Bob Henson discussing the paper over at underground: This may all be semantics and the WMO may or may not take this new research into consideration for crowning Haiyan the most intense on record. But at least from a meteorological standpoint, that surface pressure ob is great evidence to support just why Haiyan's satellite presentation at that timestamp has no equal. Had there been a recon flight around that time, in my mind, the windspeeds would have no doubt been the strongest ever recorded in a tropical cyclone. Obviously, this is still speculation, but I believe it was at least 185 kts or equal to Major Hurricane Patricia. But given the surface pressure obs 18 miles from center fix and given the pressure environment, Haiyan may very well have had higher sustained winds. I realize It is difficult to fathom a 190-200 kts cyclone. But keep in mind, even though Patricia had a tiny core, it was imbedded in a surface trough. The hurricane was moving into a weakness by means of an advancing mid-to-upper trough and southwesterly steering regime. Haiyan's synoptic pattern contrasts significantly as the cyclone was imbedded within a moderate easterly steering flow against a strong mid-level ridge and higher surface pressures. Obviously, we will never know for certain Haiyan's peak windspeeds with the absence of reconnaissance. After considering all these factors and the new paper, however, I am confident Haiyan is the most intense system even if unofficial. To me it remains the Godzilla of tropical cyclones.

I like this system to undergo a period rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hrs into landfall. I think this makes landfall stronger than 80kts. Perhaps even reaches Category 3. The core is getting established and the upper environment is clearly favorable. 27-28°C SSTs should support sufficient enough instability given the divergence aloft and jetstreak to the north.

Heavy rains the past few days and issues with the spillway have put the Guajataca Dam under significant threat of failure. Placing this here as it's obviously still an aftermath issue by ol'Maria:

What the hell? https://www.buzzfeed.com/nidhiprakash/puerto-rico-cremations?utm_term=.ak8Bpg3PE#.jfRrwg4LW

^Likely. But the cyclone did inflict some horrific devestation and loss of life. It hit two major fleets and several large ports so fortunately plenty of details were logged that can be ironed out from a meteorological standpoint. Hopefully they don't spend the entire episode in Weenieville.