Windspeed

To say Lorenzo is impressive in the Satellite Era would be a one hell of an understatement.

Anybody else noticing this? Lorenzo is bombing again. Holy crap, Batman...

Edit: The default text issue should be corrected now.

Lorenzo has reintensified to a Cat 4... 000 WTNT43 KNHC 282040 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112 kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt. These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb. Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest global model guidance. Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3 days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4. Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5. Key Messages: 1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should monitor the progress of the hurricane. 2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Haha ok... Thanks!

Are my posts texts even showing up on here? Scroll up and let me know please. lol...

112 kts NE eyewall. With ADT satellite estimates at 127 kts and what appears like ongoing intensification per recon, I'd say the NHC will go with 115 kts on the 5pm advisory package. That may seem conservative, but with an expanded vortex Dvorak estimates are going to be too high in that regard.

Recon sampled unflagged 110 kts on second pass through the eastern eyewall -- a 10 kt increase over the first pass. I think they're going to turn after this NE pass for one more punch through the eyewall again as a dropsonde sampled 143kt just below the 850 mb level. It appears Lorenzo is deepening while they are currently investigating. It also appears Lorenzo has made its turn north and is picking up forward motion. On that heading, the eastern eyewall would hypothetically have the strongest winds and that is why recon has focused sampling there.

ADT back up to 6.3/6.6 for 122 kts. -80° cloudtops in the northern semicircle of the CDO. -70°C wrapping around. Though the eye still looks a bit ragged, this is likely due to leftover cloudmass from the old eyewall still rotating around inside the new. At any rate, Lorenzo looks to be reintensifying this afternoon.

000 WTNT43 KNHC 281447 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019 Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt. Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of 350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day 3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids and is very similar to the previous forecast. A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo, but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period. Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern side of the Atlantic basin in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Berg

Lorenzo is moving over a region of slightly higher SSTs for the next 24 hours. There is roughly 10kts of westerly shear interacting with hurricane, though CIMSS analysis suggests upper level southwesterly flow has weakened somewhat. There could still be some mid-level disruption going on but overall Lorenzo looks improved versus 12 hours ago. The eye has been showing up through the high cirrus canopy this morning, partially clearing out at times. However, you can make out the larger eye in place under the cirrus canopy on visible. ADT still supports a borderline Cat 3. Based on the improving structure, the NHC will probably keep it a major for at least the next advisory period, and there may even be some slight reintensification going on through this evening based on its recent improvement on satellite. Lorenzo should turn due north as the Azores ridge backs southeast the next few days. By Tuesday, the strong deep layer trough digging into the central Atlantic should turn the hurricane NE and increase its forward motion substantially. Though OHC decreases, the core will be moving fast so that the immediate surface layer temperatures will be sufficient for latent heat, however, baroclinic forcing will also be coming into play at that time. The NHC will probably keep Lorenzo above hurricane intensity all the way through the Azores and it may even deepen again due to both baroclinic and upper tropospheric forcing. Not improbable that Lorenzo could be a Cat 2 impact on the far western islands of Flores and Corvo in the Azores.

RE: UK impacts... Looks like Lorenzo will have fully transitioned by then. You would need strong convection to mix down the more intense 850mb winds within the jet flow. Sure, it will be windy, but I'm not sold on strong gale force impacts by that point. The Azores on the other hand... They could get rocked depending on trajectory and track.

Developing story: NOAA recon was diverted on flight path due to ship distress signal. I knew something was odd and then I thought, "Oh no, they must be having technical issues." Nope, a ship is caught in the hurricane. They are looking for survivers.

Good for training and sampling of atmospheric data to obs the upper tropospheric temps in that region. This could help better explain Lorenzo's MPI last night from the SSTs it traversed. Lorenzo is clearly past peak now however. I would be surprised if they still found a 125-130 kt hurricane. 110-115 kts vort msg now however would probably reinforce somewhat that it was much more powerful in the past 12 hrs based on current dropping SAT AdjT# 5.6 numbers.

000 WTNT43 KNHC 270233 TCDAT3 Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019 Lorenzo has intensified even more this evening, with a clear eye characterized by warm temperatures of up to 17 degrees Celsius. The eye is now completely surrounded by a ring of convection with cold cloud tops less than minus 70 degrees Celsius. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB, as well as the objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT unanimously support increasing the initial intensity to 125 kt. Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending over 200 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle, and a cirrus cloud canopy that spans greater than a 10 degree latitude by 10 degree longitude area. The initial motion is now north-northwest, or 330/12 kt. Model guidance is in very good agreement throughout the 5 day period on the future track of Lorenzo. The hurricane will move through a break in the subtropical ridge currently to its northwest over the next couple of days, gradually turning to the north then northeast as it rounds the periphery of a ridge to its east. Late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will begin to accelerate as it gets caught in southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The model guidance made a slight shift to the left since the previous advisory, but since the same guidance shifted right earlier today, I did not want to make much of a change to the track. The official forecast track is very near the previous one, and is now on the right side of the consensus guidance. The environment around Lorenzo is expected to change little over the next day or so. Both dynamical and statistical guidance are suggesting that the hurricane is nearing peak intensity. Therefore only fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are expected through about Friday night. Over the weekend, some moderate westerly shear ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough could begin to slowly weaken the cyclone. Late in the forecast period, the combination of strong upper level southwesterly winds and cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a faster weakening trend. The official forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and a little higher than most of the guidance through the first 48 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.6N 41.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

Good grief...

ADT SAT est. is now supportive of 130 kts. If the structure maintains and the NHC goes with that in a few hours, Lorenzo will be the strongest TC on record in the central-to-eastern Atlantic or anywhere east of 50°W longitude.

6.5 / 935.1mb / 127.0kt Putting on quite a show now... [emoji851] Should be nearing maximum potential intensity (MPI) soon based on SSTs and upper tropospheric temps for that region of the Atlantic. Also just read that recon is taking a training mission from Barbados out there this evening. Any wagers?

Agreed, and that got brought up because Michael still looked absurd in AVN. I do use both versions of colorized IR though. The new Enhanced IR gives detailed color bands (pinks to whites) in the -80° to -90°s range, which is useful for super intense overshooting tops in mesoconvective systems and volcanic plinian columns that punch through the tropopause. Occasionally you will get a TC in the deep tropics that will cool to that range. But it is otherwise kind of overkill for TCs and certainly not as useful as a comparative tool to past TCs. -70°C reds to -80° dark color band is a perfectly fine cap on AVN. Unfortunately I find the -60° to -70°s color bands much too dark on the new Enhanced IRs. It does make TCs in general look stronger if you were accustomed to AVN all these years. But now we have access to both colorized IRs, so whatever, it's all good.

Since NCEP stopped automated posting of GOES products (Himawari products are still being posted at current time) to the older SSD server, weathernerds.org began to use that color scheme as an option for measuring cloudtop temperatures. And yes, I agree, AVN is a valuable tool if not a more scathing one for historical comparison. Anyway, my eyes and empirical obs in general are better suited for 40 years of AVN because that is what I am used too.

I edited my post to mention the Azores (again), but obviously it would be a weaker purely tropical hurricane or at least a weaker baroclinic-forced hurricane versus what it is now. However, thereafter, most modeling had it phasing into a strong Northern Atlantic low in the medium-to-long range.

If that is the case, I hope they plan to head out there this evening. Obviously Lorenzo is not a threat to anything but shipping interests in the short-term (obviously the Azores may come into play), but from a meteorological perspective, Lorenzo is fascinating. It could very well end up surprisingly deep/intense based on recent satellite trends. It would be awesome to sample this hurricane near peak intensity.

ADT continues to increase. Lorenzo's entire CDO includes a band of -70°C or lower cloudtops now:

Did you quote the wrong post? That blurp by me was from yesterday evening before the new eye took over.