Windspeed

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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. In the shortterm, the remnants of Sixteen-E will be a real nuisance to cleanup and relief efforts and bring further potential for heavy rains and flooding. Strong convection has persisted this afternoon and appears to be reorganizing the LLC that's going to pass very close to southern Baja before entering the Gulf of California. I wouldn't rule out this being reclassified. Either way, this system will bring gusty winds and heavy rain, prolonging the flood threat over the southern peninsula. THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 19N110W ARE MOVING NE 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS SLOWLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF ODILE. IT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.
  2. I don't know what's more impressive: Josh's chasing record in Mexico or his cellular service there. A gnat can fart and I'll drop a call.
  3. I am amazed he is getting these out as I figured cell reception would be down by now. May not be in service for much longer. I would say they're going to get raked with high backside winds and onshore flow for quite a while.
  4. Notice the intense banding of cloudtops on the eastern semi-circle cooling on IR. Unfortunately, Cabo may not have seen the worst yet. Looks as though the eastern eyewall is going to rake directly over the entire city. Winds will be directly out of the south and probably at their peak for the entire event.
  5. Wow, Odile is really getting its act together right at landfall...
  6. Per Josh: 8:45 pm. Wind has suddenly gone from a whistle to a roar. Doors shaking like in a bad earthquake.
  7. Well radar is down but we at least have microwave...
  8. I'm not so sure there won't be a damaging surge due to Odile's path. Granted, inclination is higher south of the Baja Penninsula; however, a shallow (7 meter) reef area makes up the Bahia and immediate coastline towards the eastern tip. The wind direction will be pushing water against the southern penninsula and the current should be blocked somewhat by the shape of Bahia San Lucas. Unfortunately, even a small surge may be quite damaging due to significant wave action on top. A 3 meter surge into the Cabo Marina and lower night district would be quite devestating.
  9. Cabo is definitely going to get rocked for a while. Even if the inner eyewall wobbles back to the west, the outter eyewall is going to rake the larger Cabo area. Josh should get some great footage.
  10. On the cell that may have produced multiple touchdowns in Rock Springs, Gray and possibly Boone's Creek and Watauga communities near Johnson City, it appears from the videos captured near Rock Springs that there was an overall larger funnel at height that may or may not have touched down; however, with multiple smaller or satellite vortices that did touch down from it as it progressed SSE. The following image shows the wall cloud and funnel as the cell moved through. It's on WCYB's page, but I haven't been able to confirm the exact location: Are there any videos out of Campbell County? I have yet to find anything.
  11. I'll second that... Both Dave Dierks and Mark Reynolds did a fantastic job with the live coverage.
  12. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 639 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL JOHNSON COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE... NORTHEASTERN CARTER COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE... NORTHEASTERN SULLIVAN COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE... SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... THE CITY OF BRISTOL IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 730 PM EDT * AT 639 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BRISTOL VA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... BRISTOL TN...BRISTOL VA...ABINGDON...MOUNTAIN CITY...WALNUT HILL... DAMASCUS...SADIE...LAUREL BLOOMERY...BENHAMS...SHADY VALLEY...SOUTH HOLSTON DAM...HILANDER PARK...HARR AND DOEVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
  13. Yeah, here's the new warning on that cell that's moving into SWVA. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 438 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN WISE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... CENTRAL SCOTT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... NORTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... * UNTIL 530 PM EDT * AT 438 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER KENVIR...OR 9 MILES EAST OF HARLAN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... GATE CITY...BIG STONE GAP...PENNINGTON GAP...APPALACHIA...ST. CHARLES...DUFFIELD...CLINCHPORT...DRYDEN...FORT BLACKMORE...JASPER AND PATTONSVILLE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
  14. Cells intensifying behind the currently Tor warned cells. Don't really see any sign of a transition from discrete to linear on these supercells. This event may last into darkness for the eastern Valley.
  15. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY 405 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON KY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHERN CLAY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY... SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT * AT 403 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR CORNELIUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... EGYPT AND WELCHBURG AROUND 410 PM EDT. SHEPHERDTOWN AND MAULDEN AROUND 415 PM EDT. CHESTNUTBURG AND MALCOMB AROUND 420 PM EDT. LAUREL CREEK AND THOMAS AROUND 425 PM EDT. AMMIE AND FELTY AROUND 430 PM EDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE HIGH KNOB AND ALGER. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
  16. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 357 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CAMPBELL COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE... WESTERN UNION COUNTY IN EASTERN TENNESSEE... * UNTIL 445 PM EDT * AT 355 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ZION HILL...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF LA FOLLETTE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. IN ADDITION...THIS STORM HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND LARGER...PLUS DAMAGING WINDS IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LA FOLLETTE...MAYNARDVILLE...JACKSBORO...JELLICO...CARYVILLE... FINCASTLE...ROYAL BLUE...ELK VALLEY...WHITE OAK...COVE LAKE S.P.... INDIAN MOUNTAIN S.P....BIG RIDGE S.P....SHARPS CHAPEL...NORRIS LAKE AND NORRIS DAM S.P.. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME OR OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.
  17. We've had about an hour of sun. It's already muggy. Dew points are rising. There's some high debris clouds coming in from the cells over Kentucky, but it probably doesn't matter at this point. This is probably the best chance at seeing a tornado producing super cell for the Tricities region since 2011. Never thought it would be in July. At any rate, whether that pans out or not, I'm pretty much banking on significant hail and high wind gusts at this point.
  18. I want to say the cloud deck in place is really helping our neck of the woods. But it's still early in the game. Even a few hours of sunshine would simply aid the instability that's already in place.
  19. I am curious if the NPC will extend the moderate risk and sig hatch a little further south and west tomorrow. The 4km nam is keeping supercells discrete much further south, arriving later in the evening, and coinciding with the highest helicity values and 60 kts shear. This is primarily over SE KY, the upper plateau of TN, NE TN and SW VA.
  20. A MCS has really taken off over SRN IL and SRN IN and will push through Kentucky later tonite and eventually E TN before dawn. Could be some wind, though I suspect line will weaken somewhat before it reaches the TN Valley. May be some lingering showers and a cloud deck after sunrise for the upper TN Valley though. Will have to see how quickly this stuff burns off by the afternoon before the second wave of energy can go boom.
  21. If the initial MCS doesn't pan out this evening across the upper Mississippi and Ohio Valley, we may not have any much in the way of cloud debris/showers scattered across the upper Tennessee Valley in on Sunday morning. SPC has already dropped the MOD threat for the upper MS Valley-Ohio Valley for tonite. Less cloud cover in the morning could make for even greater instability by the time initiation occurs on Sunday afternoon. With such high dew points and cold air aloft, things are going to be rocking anyway.
  22. Looks pretty ominous for ERN KY. How often do you see Tor Sig parameters above 50 this far south in freaking July? Not unless there's a tropical cyclone name attached to it. The upper Cumberland will likely see discrete cells form with large hail and damaging winds. Though I still think the more violent stuff will remain just to the north of the eastern Valley, likely merging into a line/bow/derecho before impacting my neck of the woods. Really anxious to see if the 4k NAM creeps the exit region any further south this evening. Going to be an interesting event to watch. Better make sure any loose stuff outside is tied down, put inside, or you'll be collecting what's left off your neighbor's property.