Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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Nice ERA-5 model reanalysis of Hurricane Hugo:- 46 replies
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- historical tropical cyclones
- hurricanes
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22/11/6 *** stares down [mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention] with The Good, the Bad and the Ugly theme playing ***
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The previous TCHP maps may have been showing old data. This does seem to make sense based on the Gulf Stream data from last week being virtually non-existant for heat content on previous maps. There should be noticeable kinetic energy in the GS off of Florida by this time frame, yet last week's maps were showing zilch there.
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Awesome for you to have gone back and checked previous days. Yes, something is amiss.
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Strong +AMO/+NAO with robust Azores ridging may keep the wavetrain and ITCZ slightly displaced at a lower latitude this August-October. Though it should back down somewhat, the pattern could result cyclogenesis at slightly lower latitudes within the MDR and ESE of the Lesser Antilles.
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Another amazing day today. I'll take a sunshine, low humidity and 81°F any day in Summer.
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- tennessee river valley
- wind
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Though I have been sharing posts from meteorological and climatological social media, and making comments of my own about the 2020 season, I've yet to make a formal post on any predictions. At this point, it's probably not going to surprise anyone that I am now calling for a "hyperactive" 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. There is no doubt that it will be active, but too many signals are suggesting we will see a big ACE producing year. Possibly even near to something like 2017. Though I do expect more action in the deep Caribbean vs the northern, I also expect MDR development in August-October to be above normal with plenty of cyclogenesis occurring at low latitudes. We may see an Ivan, Dean, Allen or Gilbert type powerful Cape Verde Hurricane reach Central America or the GOM. I expect significant Western Caribbean development as well. Perhaps more than one. The setup looks amped for big numbers and indicators make it difficult to not give into the hype. So really if we see anything not representative of a very active to hyperactive season by October, this would be a huge forecast bust. I am pretty confident in these numbers: An additional 19 tropical cyclones beyond Cristobal for a total of 22, 11 of those hurricanes, 6 being majors, with around 190 accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) for the season. Edit: Already revising total numbers up to 22 as I was thinking ahead and did not account for having had 3 TCs already.
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^ RE: Long-range velocity potential mentioned above into July from GFS and EPS members:
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Maps of TCHP and depth of 26°C isotherm. I never recall seeing such high-end anomalous kinetic energy stored up this early in the calendar year. These maps look more akin to mid-August. There will be an amplified easterly jet below 700 hpa this week that will hopefully bring down / cool off the MDR somewhat. But with hints in long-range modeling suggestive of a synoptic pattern that would support long-tracking deep Caribbean TCs, the anomalous OHC is a bit troubling, especially given the atmospheric pattern for velocity potential over the Caribbean may be among the most favorable for TCs development during the heart of the season.
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Informative chain thread on long-range modeling SSTs and steering pattern for 2020 Atl Hurricane Season:
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All signs within long range modeling pointing towards a very active synoptic setup for the heart of the Atlantic Hurricane Season:
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Wild Speculation for Winter 20 -21
Windspeed replied to Holston_River_Rambler's topic in Tennessee Valley
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Might the African wavetrain get an early start this year?
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SSTs along the NW GOM are still relatively minimal 26-27°C to support an intense TC. However, if Amanda or newly named system's location is timed just right, a more favorable divergent upper pattern could be in place as it approaches landfall. Also SSTs may warm to 28°C by next weekend if cloud coverage/storminess clears out for the most part. We'll have to wait a few more days to see how the forecast ahead of any potential TC will be influenced by the synoptic and oceanic environment.
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053112z ECMWF ensemble...
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I hate to April 27th a meteorological topic for hyperbole, but many of the characteristics of 2005 are coming into play with the late pattern swings here. That year saw a strong -NAO flip postive with a favorable AMO and ENSO for a hyperactive Atlantic. There are other variables, of course, not excluding WAM (West African Monsoon) and ITCZ suppression/placement along the surface wave-breaking entrance into the MDR and SAL. But with a +AMO and +NAO, a late shift like we saw in June that year gave us some incredible early fireworks out of the MDR as well. This year is going to be incredibly interesting to watch unfold.
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That is NOAA though. Though SSTs may lag on rapid warmth due to the late swings in pattern, negative to positive NAO and positive AMO, -ENSO, etc., June looks amplified for strong favorable environmental gains to support an active TC setup in the western ATL basin by July. Might even see some W Caribbean / Gulf development into early June. Looks like an active to hyperactive season.
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Amphan is likely a Cat 5 Saffir-Simpson right now. But it has a very tiny core. Outer banding is also clearly intensifying and consolidating a circular structure on MW. An ERC within 24 hrs will be underway. The real question is what happens after that ERC for the low-delta and coastal plain. Will a larger eyewall begin intensification prior to landfall or will Amphan struggle through landfall? Varying landfall intensities with a larger eyewall could be mitigatable or catastrophic event for Bangladesh. All we can so at this point is wait and see how Amphan morphs and evolves.
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Yeah, also a +AMO. If the pattern does flip late and a +NAO roars into June and July, there's going to be some serious fireworks in the tropics w/ southerly hot & muggy flow across the greater Tennessee Valley and Southeast CONUS. Essentially successive rinse & repeat days until soil moisture begins to decline by August. A lot of variety isolated afternoon thunderstorms giving way to greater and greater spreads between days with precipitation. So still thinking Aug.-Oct. 2020 will lean dry barring a land-falling TC making its way across the region.