Windspeed

Impressive...

To be fair, Julia is the most eastern CV hurricane to reach Cat 4 intensity in the Atlantic Basin, however, it pulled this off 10 days earlier, and in comparison to Lorenzo, it was tiny. Julia's far eastern location will likely remain a record for Cat 4 intensity for many years due to how incredibly rare it has been observed in the satellite era. But Lorenzo's period of intensification doesn't appear to be leveling off yet. Lorenzo will likely end up stronger than Julia, though I am not expecting it to reach Cat 5. It will certainly end up being the most intense TC we have observed that far east in the MDR and also during its eventual trek up through the central Atlantic. Julia at peak intensity:

Lorenzo should become intense enough to get the N. Atlantic Basin above the century mark for ACE. @ 88.8 we are just above climatological mean of 76.4 for this date in the season. This season should finish well above average as we may have a few more MDR systems. Of course there is always the western Caribbean to watch out for in Oct. At this time, the N. Atl. and N. Indian are the only basins above seasonal average for calendar date. The N. Hemisphere as a whole is below average @ date with 332.3 (373.1).

Pinhole eye. Probably won't last long with such well-organized outer banding, which will likely lead to an ERC and a larger eye. Nothing suggestive of a change in track at this point. Still looks like a powerful central Atlantic major. Need to keep an eye on possible interaction with the Azores though. Depending on recurve trajectory could be one of their strongest impacts.

That's a mean for projected return. It doesn't suggest we are due in another 10-20 years, only that per climatological average, a sub-900 mb landfall occurs within a spread of 102 years. There could be more or less years, or even 300 years between such events. I would need to read the paper in more detail on how they came up with those means. The 265-yr mean seems much too large to me however these are modeled datasets from projections and not historical observations since we do not have measurements prior to the 1800s. There are only a few estimated examples of such strong tempests prior to that due to captain logs or governing records.

Future big ACE generator right here. With a big deep layer central Atlantic trough it should not impact anthing west of 60°W however it could impact the Azores depending on how fast it recurves. With the deep layer trough, Lorenzo may actually continue deepening or remain a major hurricane as it moves north into the central Atlantic as the steering layer may offset upper level wind shear. Such trough interactions can enhance favorability versus negative upstream shear. Hence why I think Lorenzo will be a big ACE producing Cape Verde hurricane.

Likewise NCEP forecasts a strong heat ridge over the eastern CONUS the remainder of the month into Oct. Don't just assume modeling will follow suite with every MDR to Caribbean system from here on out. It only takes one getting missed by a weakness and slipping under an ECONUS ridge at the right time to end up as far west as the Gulf. Ridge and trough interactions are dynamic, not held within stasis. Even looking at current global modeling, a case in point. Look at the location of fantasy hurricane moving under the ridge into an amped CONUS pattern. That would spell trouble:

There are already TS force sustained winds being observed. I suspect this may be the shortest classified TD on record as they may upgrade momentarily. lol... Somebody want to do the honors and make a thread?

Something I would like to point out as a reminder about the NHC Outlook's hatched regions with respect to potential cyclone development: These are not intended to be a representation of track nor to be confused as track guidance, they are merely to show a most probable region for a disturbance / area of invest to undergo cyclogenesis. Too many times I see reference to these discussed as forecast track, when in reality, any cyclogenesis that occurs could begin to track towards another direction once a system has been classified. For example, 95L's sharp wave axis or area of low pressure could form a vortex at highest forecast probability anywhere within that hatched zone, but the classified depression or tropical cyclone could immediately begin tracking west from initialization, north or even northeast. I am not accusing anyone of this in current discussion with 95L, but I have certainly seen it done here in the past and elsewhere. Additonally, this is also why the NHC will usually use arrows from an invest's location to a hatched region when they feel it will not develop at its current location. In that case, you can assume some track for the disturbance in an official sense, but only to the region of expected higher probs for cyclogenesis. Before any of this, it's just model slag discussion really.

Yeah I am infuriated. What does it even mean to be an American anymore with shit like this happening?

This is bloody disgraceful.... So much for being a beacon of light.

The topography of the Shizuoka prefecture already doing a number on Faxai's northern circulation. There is plenty of topography there besides just the majestic Mt. Fuji. The eye has become cloudfilled though radar still shows a robust northern eyewall. This will be the strongest typhoon in recent memory for the port of Yokohama and the harbour there based on current intensity, but hopefully the surge won't be too severe in Sagami Bay and Tokyo Bay due to Faxai's small core.

Kozushima getting hit pretty hard:

Hey Ryan, I was just about to post that GMI pass but I see you tweeted it.

Even when you prove by Trump's very own actions and statements how irresponsible and dangerous he is, some people go with this ridiculous "it's just weather" bullshit or any other lame excuse for the hundreds of other examples of inappropriate actions/behavior. Yeah, you can go **** right off with all of that. I'm done dealing with you. There is no overcoming this lemming mentality and cult insanity anymore with a narcissist megalomaniac. I've thrown in the towel. I pray for the day politics is boring again and matters of public safety are not denigrated into spectacle, misinformation and outright lies. I really am tired of this timeline. Perhaps some day we'll have a government again that isn't undermined all the way to the top with heads of the executive cabinet and congressional branches who actually do their damn jobs. For now it is a three-ring sideshow circus. Actually I shouldn't disrespect circus performers. They actually have value / worth and a place in our society. Edit: Well I guess I'm no longer refraining. I apologize for the extreme rant. I've said my peace and I am done with it. Try to get back to a positive mentality and move on. What else you going to do in these times?