Windspeed

Westerly windshear has dramatically decreased across the Caribbean and much of the MDR below 20-25° latitude. Additionally there are signs of backing Azores ridging, which should continue to relax easterlies somewhat over the next week. Robust waves and inverted troughs are exiting Africa during this time. Though the globals are reluctant to latch onto anything yet aside from occasional blurps out of the GFS, I expect a shift towards favorable atmospheric conditions and a decrease in subsidence going into early September. Some of these waves should be strong enough to break off the suppressed ITCZ and amp up moisture feed, convergence and lift across the lower central development region. Essentially, aside from obvious climatological cues, I don't expect things to be quiet much longer.

This is nuts.

Posting this in the OBS and medium-long range threads just so everyone notices: 000 NOUS64 KMRX 121054 FTMMRX Message Date: Aug 12 2019 10:56:47 KMRX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR MODIFICATIONS AND WILL BE DOWN THROUGH 8/16/2019. B ET

Posting this in the OBS and medium-long range thread just so everyone notices: 000 NOUS64 KMRX 121054 FTMMRX Message Date: Aug 12 2019 10:56:47 KMRX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR MODIFICATIONS AND WILL BE DOWN THROUGH 8/16/2019. B ET

Agree with the increase in storms. Things are quiet and will likely remain that way through late August. OTOH, September and October are shaping up to be very active. ENSO has transitioned to neutral into at least early Winter. Westerly wind shear should be low across the Atlantic MDR. Easterly windshear should become more favorable by late August as the SPH backs north and surface pressures fall. Could be a really interesting setup for the MDR into the Caribbean and not just from a climatological perspective. SSTs/OHC temps and depth throughout the region is running above climo mean and will be conducive for TC development when atmospheric conditions improve.

Lekima is approaching 130 kts or upper Cat 4 per ADT#s the past few hours. This cyclone may even become a Cat 5 on Saffir Simpson scale. Of course a reminder that the agency responsible for that region measures in 10-minute sustained averages, but nonetheless the TC is a beast tha lt may be a Super Typhoon near initial brush / land interaction with Ryukyu Islands, Japan, near to Ishagaki.

TOOL!!!!!!!!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of disturbed weather stretching from central and eastern Cuba northward to the central and southeastern Bahamas is forecast to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, and then move northward on across Florida and the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida during the next few days. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this disturbance during the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Yeah the 12z ECMWF has some very strong 400-300 mb southwesterly winds moving in a line from Cuba across the Bahamas and Bermuda in the 5-7 day range. The GFS is more aligned with the Hudson to Nova Scotia trough and better supportive stacked southerly flow. Hence the GFS has a borderline major hurricane rounding the western periphery of backing 580 dm heights versus the ECMWF which is NOT southerly stacked in flow, which just decapitates any tropical entity that would dare move near the SE CONUS / Bahamas.

Disturbance near the Cape Verdes is up to 40% for the 5-Day Outlook. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart

TS Flossie continues to intensify and will likely also become a major hurricane over the next couple of days.

Erick is cranking away as a major hurricane. Might reach Cat 4, though an ERC may be about to occur in the short term. The system will cross into the CPAC tomorrow and should experience a weakening trend in three to four days due to strong shear and trough interaction near Hawaii. As such, any interaction there should be minimal.

The one very deep wave over interior Africa already has a decent surface low in conjunction to an abundant moisture envelope. The CCKW should still be in place when it emerges into the Atlantic MDR for the first week of August, so we'll have something to watch. However, keep in mind that Azores 500 mb ridging is still kicking in overdrive right now. Though upper level Westerlies have relaxed out of the W. Atl and Caribbean, deep MDR development is still questionable until strong Easterly mid-level flow can relax somewhat. Easterly shear is still a deterrent and it easing will allow SAL to relax, amplifying moisture and convective instability out of the southern ITCZ.

56°F and feels freaking amazing outside right now. Driving home from work I even turned on the heat. Granted, I had the windows down. Negligible humidity, inhaling that crisp fresh Canadian + radiational cooled air. Premature Fall ejaculation perhaps, but it feels glorious!

Most if not all of the upwelling occurred in the central and NW GOM. The eastern GOM is still at or above normal. Air temps are running in the mid-to-upper 90s through the end of the month regardless. You are correct in that it won't take very long for the western half of the GOM to rebound for August.

Did not see a recent banter thread so thought I would just post here. This new video by Pecos Hank discussing super computer mesocyclone and tornado genesis with Dr. Leigh Orf is an absolute must watch:

This video by Pecos Hank discussing super computer mesocyclone and tornado genesis with Dr. Leigh Orf is an absolute must watch:

Even though we are still beyond 72 hrs from a trackable feature, if one does indeed resolve, there are already two different camps between the GFS vs ECMWF runs over the past few days. Though both models do have a sharp surface trough / low pressure system over the SE US & NE GOM, the ECMWF is more aggressive in southern advancement of that boundary and an attached 850-700 mb vortex. Cyclogenesis on the Euro is much further south out over the GOM, versus the GFS runs which keeps the feature either inland or in closer proximity to land. Granted we are still early into in these model runs and confidence should remain low for now. If given a scenario of better modeling agreement on the eventual placement of the surface trough, even with a disturbance positioned out over the GOM doesn't guarantee TC development. That being said, last night's 0z ECMWF was the most aggressive in development so far:

A boundary is forecast to stall and linger over the north GOM next week. An MCS currently organizing over Kansas may push SSE with the boundary and move off the Panhandle coastline possibly developing a sharp surface trough / area of low pressure, which some of the globals are trying to close off into a tropical or sub tropical cyclone. At least something to watch for development towards the mid-to-late week timeframe.

Though T#s have decreased and intensity has come down, still a formidable Cat 4 and looking quite good on SAT.

Barbara's eye finally cleared and became more stable after some old vortex convection dissipated. As such, ADT # responded upwards this afternoon, but has since leveled off to around 7.0. We're probably observing a high end 4 / borderline 5 now.

The EPAC has finally taken off with its second named storm, Barbara reaching Major Hurricane status and Category 4 intensity.

Strong storms moved through TYS and MRX but most things have calmed down and seem rather tame at the moment.