Windspeed

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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Yes, that latest SREF just absolutely clobbers the I-40 corridor across the entire state of Tennessee. If this verifies, it will be forever known as the I-40 Express.
  2. Yes, I'm getting more and more confident in significant snows for the I-40 corridor, however, minor differences in track at this point is key for who gets the heaviest amounts. Big difference in a spread of 4-6" and 8-12" totals.
  3. A thread to discuss the potential for a Southern winter storm affecting portions of the Tennessee Valley.
  4. Well 72 hours out and I'm now officially on the hype train. Chooo Chooooooo!!!
  5. Only takes one big system to change the perspect of this winter. But you really have to be shaking your head at this point. Hoping something verifies for a few inches here and there is really disappointing. I would've thought we'd have seen something a little more substantial at this point for 2015, especially in the upper valley.
  6. Still long range, yes, but the last week of January on all the major globals has my hopes up for the first time this winter. The pattern looks very wintry! Perhaps a good sign for February?
  7. Yeah, it's kind of slow right now in the weather deptartment. Not a lot to banter about there. So it's pretty easy to banter about other stuff that a lot of weather enthusiasts like to ramble on about this time of year, which, unsurprisingly is football, especially with the bowls and playoffs happening...
  8. The hype is going to be intense for the Volunteers heading into next season but I'm going to be a little more cautiously optimistic. Tennessee does return to prominence in 2015, perhaps even winning 10 games, but I think they're one more year away from being a national contender. They're still going to be a young team next year of prodominately sophomores. I'm not ruling them out of winning the East, but realistically, I think they'll finish #2 behind UGA. 2016 should be their year when they win the entire SEC and compete for a National Championship. They're definitely heading in the right direction.
  9. Many of the global models are showing development in the GOM or northwestern Caribbean next week. With a ridge driving down into the eastern CONUS, whatever does develop will be a slow mover.
  10. I'm thinking we might have quite a large clear eye and doughnut CDO by daybreak if the core can continue this trend unabated. The evolution and breakdown inside the new eye as revealed on recent infared is really grabbing my attention. Also notice how organized the banding is around the outter eye. The ERC is probably complete if not very close to nearing completion. I bet recon is going to find a much larger wind radii tomorrow. I just hope the winds have come down at the surface, though that may not be the case at all. This actually looks more impressive to me than at any point in Gonzalo's life cycle:
  11. Yeah, for now it looks like there will be strong mid-level shear impacting the system as it parallels the chain on Sunday. Probably not going to maintain hurricane intensity at that point (if it even attains hurricane intensity at all), though the models should have a better handle on the intereaction/timing of both upper level features after that Gulf Steam IV data gets ingested for the models tonight. This could easily miss the bigger islands entirely but I'd like to be more confident about that. Let's see what those model runs do tonight.
  12. Tough forecast for them. Not too much has to evolve with those upper features either way to switch from a mere weakening tropical storm to a strengthening hurricane. The shear axis is literally just a few hundred miles over the northern half of the LLC as opposed the the southern half. Plus you've still got to consider how that pattern evolves out through Sunday as opposed to the track shifting further west. I must say its no wonder they're not nearly as confident of Ana impacting the islands as a hurricane with its status quo. But in this case, there still appears plenty of uncertainty and in no way should it be written off yet as a typical tropical cyclone encounter with the island chain.
  13. Yes, if you could see Gonzalos' eye on recon's radar, it would likely look very similar to other completed ERCs that we get to observe on weather service radar near the coast. When an ERC completes, you'll only see a single eyewall again, but inside, remnants of the old decayed wall may continue to linger as isolated showers and light rain. On satellite, you'll see that debris as strato and altocumulus clouds, etc., gyring around until eventually they get precipitated or mixed out by drier sinking air. If unabated, larger eye should eventually show up nice and clear on satellite imagery again.
  14. Same issue as earlier. The mid-level vortex of the MCS remains mighty impressive, however, it's still not aligned with the LLC as it is rotating up off intense cells that remain displaced on the SW side of the overall surface circulation. Mid-level northwesterly shear must still either be affecting the system or the LLC simply fails to reorganizing under the MLC. May be a slow strengthening trend until shear backs off at the mid-levels. The upper level outflow looks to be there when this occurs and there is plenty of divergence aloft as noted in the persistent cold spinning MCS feature.
  15. The core of Ana taking advantage of some really impressive atmospheric conditions. The upper ridge is placed perfectly with minimal shear on the system and divergent flow aloft. The center also appears to be moving just south of due west right now, which could be very important in that, one, ultimately will have a bearing on exactly which island to be most impacted, and two, the eyewall is traversing 28ºC water. Update: Think I may have jumped the gun on RI beginning earlier. IR looked terrific with a very circular convective ring as you can see above. However, the satellite presentation may be misleading. Can't be certain that the mid-level vortex is aligned with the overall LLC at the moment. The MCS might just be rotating off intense cells on the SW side of the LLC based on microwave imagery and may not be a true center. Then again, small vortexes don't always show up well on microwave and can be just as misleading as IR. Recon sure would be nice right now.
  16. Gonzalo is a compact hurricane, however, I don't think it's small enough to be considered a microcane. At any rate, CDO coverage will likely expand as environmental conditions/shear values continue improving through tomorrow. A 16mb drop this afternoon combined with slightly higher than normal background surface pressures in the western Atlantic -- windspeeds will continue to increase and this should reach Category 4 intensity over night even if the central pressure remains around 954mb, though certainly it may continue to drop.
  17. WTPA45 PHFO 181508TCDCP5HURRICANE ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014500 AM HST SAT OCT 18 2014 LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERELY RESTRICTED OUTFLOW IN ANA/S WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...WITH 20 TO 25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR NOTED IN RECENT UW-CIMSS ANALYSES. HOWEVER...DATA FROM A U.S. AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT ANA HAS NOT WEAKENEDSIGNIFICANTLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH MAXIMUM SFMR WINDSNEAR 67 KT...AND MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 75 KT. A BLEND OF THE AVAILABLE DATA SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SET AT 315/11 KT...WITH ANA LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVELANTICYCLONE. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE...AND TO THE NORTH OF ANA...AND WILL HELP MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTIONTHROUGH MOST OF TODAY. A NEW RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE DATELINE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARDSPEED...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. ALTHOUGH ANA HAS BEEN TRACKINGSLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TRACK...THE UPDATEDTRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS AT 24 AND 36 HOURS. THIS ISIN LINE WITH THE GUIDANCE SUITE...BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECASTCONTINUES TO RIDE THE RIGHT HAND SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORTTERM. WHILE THE GUIDANCE...AND THE FORECAST...REMAINS STEADFAST IN ATURN TOWARD THE WEST BY TONIGHT...IF THE TURN OCCURS LATER OR IS NOTAS SHARP AS ANTICIPATED...WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF ANA COULD IMPACTOAHU OR KAUAI COUNTY...THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS INEFFECT. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED THAT MAUI COUNTY WILL NOT ENCOUNTERANA/S WIND FIELD...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.THE GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY...BUT ASTHE NEW RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE CYCLONE ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ANA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ON AN INCREASINGLY NORTHWARD TRACK. BY DAYS4 AND 5...ANA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINENATIONAL MONUMENT...WITH TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWING INCREASING SPREAD ATTHAT TIME. ANA IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12HOURS...WITH MODEST WEAKENING THEN EXPECTED THROUGH DAY 3.PERSISTENT WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PREVENT ANAFROM INTENSIFYING OVER THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATER LOCATED TO THEWEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...UNTIL THE SHEARBEGINS TO RELAX ON DAYS 4 AND 5. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS OFFERING AWIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS AT THIS TIME...WITH THE LATEST FORECASTCLOSELY FOLLOWING THE TRENDS PRESENTED BY SHIPS AND LGEMGUIDANCE...WHICH INDICATE SOME RE-STRENGTHENING. THE IVCN CONSENSUSCONTINUES TO BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IN THE LONGERRANGES...AS HWRF AND GFDL STRENGTHEN ANA TO A STRONG HURRICANE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 18.5N 158.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 19.4N 159.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 19.9N 160.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 20.3N 162.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 20.6N 163.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 22.0N 166.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 168.0W 65 KT 75 MPH120H 23/1200Z 26.5N 168.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$FORECASTER BIRCHARD
  18. BULLETIN HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014 500 PM AST TUE OCT 14 2014 ...GONZALO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC... ...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 66.0W ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM E OF GRAND TURK ISLAND ABOUT 770 MI...1240 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES
  19. Other than the obvious threat to Bermuda, Newfoundland should keep close tabs on Gonzalo. The models have this barrelling north faster than it can complete extratropical transition. Interaction with the trough and baroclinic forcing may allow Gonzalo to maintain hurricane force winds upon a direct landfall there in around four days even though SSTs are obviously much colder.
  20. San Juan may get some strong TS force winds, especially if Gonzalo rapidly intensfies before closest approach, but the eyewall will pass well north of there. It's a pretty compact cyclone.
  21. I hope SRSO is being put to use for Gonzalo right now as that should make for an impressive loop. The eyewall just went gangbusters.
  22. Intense cells are going up in the northwestern eyewall that look to pass right over Anguilla. That should mix down some hurricane force winds. Gonzalo's structure looks terrific. It has an excellent shot at major hurricane status and I like its chances for rapid intensification tonight.
  23. In the shortterm, the remnants of Sixteen-E will be a real nuisance to cleanup and relief efforts and bring further potential for heavy rains and flooding. Strong convection has persisted this afternoon and appears to be reorganizing the LLC that's going to pass very close to southern Baja before entering the Gulf of California. I wouldn't rule out this being reclassified. Either way, this system will bring gusty winds and heavy rain, prolonging the flood threat over the southern peninsula. THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E LOCATED NEAR 19N110W ARE MOVING NE 15 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT 120 NM SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS SLOWLY BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF ODILE. IT WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHERE IT WILL APPROACH THE ENTRANCE TO THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.