Windspeed

Josh was in the eyewalls if Haiyan and Patricia. He's smart even if a huge risk taker. He might get killed one day, but he has always admitted the risk. Still, he usually seeks out the safest concrete structure to record data and has years of experience. Hopefully he will be okay.

Was there any discussion as to why or was there perhaps just not enough mods available to handle it today? Thanks for your time regardless.

It will be among the worst landfalls for sure for the US. But we have had more intense hurricanes make landfall than Michael. This storm is going to be devastating to the panhandle, so it doesn't need downplaying, but I don't think it will be the worst ever to hit the US.

Upper level divergence is a hell of a drug.

Be careful, there is still plenty of time for it to fall apart.

But I have a side and refuse to see, much less believe with regards to anything other than what supports my close-minded agenda that I support!

Not to overly defend, but NE GOM landfalls tend to be more bark than bite. We all have doubts just from recent history. The fact is that major hurricanes do make landfall there. They are perhaps just more rare due to typical atmospheric environmental conditions. Michael has not yet made landfall and given the presence of strong SW flow, we could still see core degradation before landfall. But this is the crux of it all. Inevitably, whether it is Michael or a future TC, we would have seen a major make landfall in the panhandle again.

Take a shot every time I mention mid level shear and you will end up with alcohol poisoning.

I love AVN. Oh how I have missed thee. [emoji7] Also, thanks WxWatcher007 [emoji106]

Josh is at Panama City Beach:

It is due to there having been a number of sleepers over the years that I am apprehensive. The last bad impact for the panhandle was Ivan. Michael presents an intriguing possibility of a strengthening or at least steady state category 3 landfall on a NE bend. Due to experience with lower impact events, people could easily be taken by surprise or off gaurd tomorrow.

It's still early and time for shifts in models, but I have to give props to SnowGoose69. He has been sticking with a further west track vs the previously slower and further east modeling by the ECMWF. But that shift west and increase in forward speed by the 12z ECMWF was an eyeopener.

Yeah, I do not want a Cat 3, much less 4. But keep in mind, just because it's a banter thread doesn't mean you get to trash people without getting any flack yourself. This certainly isn't personal, however, so fair enough. This is hardly a heated disagreement and I'm not stopping you.

Calling out your crap is also what the banter thread is for.. [emoji16]

Nate? Nate was a much different setup. This won't be moving at 25 kts at landfall and Michael actually has good modeling and synoptic support to attain major status. You may very well hit the target that Michael is more dud than stud at landfall, as it may be weakening, but to just criticize folks for reacting to actual data on a meteorological forum is essentially trolling. Why don't you post something akin to actual weather reasoning than just being insulting?

Because that's not warranted in a meteorological discussion? Haha, yeah. Models show potential major. Don't post that though, it's hype!

Who is hyping? The forecast is for a major hurricane. Sure, it may not make landfall as such, but hyping or hyperbole is not the case. Have yet to see any gloom and doom posts. Though if this undergoes RI, those will probably appear like clockwork.

That's not looking good for you. Hope you can make arrangements for a later date. Though you would rather be on left side of track than right at this point with an advancing trough, as any shift in future track would likely be east vs west. Hopefully Michael isn't bad for Seaside but if surge/wind is bad it may be next week at the earliest due to inundation of low lying areas and power outages due to downed trees.

Josh Morgerman stated he would be heading out today to chase Michael per his Twitter feed.

An issue for any vertical city is wind funneling. You may have 70 kt sustained at the airport, but in downtown with skyscrapers, off the bay, etc., wind will have greater effect and look more intense.

You don't even have to live near or adjacent to a river. This much rain will flood any drainage tributary. Yes, it is expected if you live near the coast. But we're starting to get into unprecedented territory even for NC. We need Florence to move out ASAP.

Did you fail to notice that this is a weather and meteorological forum? You keep going on about extinction events. Since those don't occur due to tropical cyclones, I don't think anyone here is impressed with the hyperbole. We're here to discuss the effects be it marginal or severe and your self-righteous belittling diatribe has worn thin. I bet you would be tooting a different horn if you lived in any of these impact areas. When all this is over and locations surveyed, we will see plenty of damage due to surge across the barrier islands, up inlets and estuaries; and unfortunately, several hundered thousand people will continue to be severely impacted by record breaking rainfall totals for weeks to come as the watershed continues crest and drain. Intense bands are still pushing well into and across NC. The river flooding may even surpass Matthew and Floyd when all is said and done.

Intense rain band creeping closer to Wilmington..

The 0914 00z ECMWF continues to model grim totals for the event.