Jump to content

Windspeed

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,156

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Windspeed
    32° and moderate snow. Only got an inch of accumulation so far but that is probably due to the initial sleet/graupel slush mix melting on the ground. Things are picking up now. Expect accumulations to build from this point forward.
  2. Windspeed
    Event is already underway but worth posting the 0z ECMWF totals before things get crazy:
  3. Windspeed
    Downsloping off Clinch Mtn perhaps? There may also be downsloping off Holston Mtn, but I am far enough away that it isn't affecting me.
  4. Windspeed
    Yeah, keep in mind that it is still really early and I hadn't originally expected a full changeover to snow until around 3-4AM at my location. I've got a slushy accumulation on everything that isn't pavement. Sleet/graupel mix with flakes right now. We're no where near the meat of the event and I expect the column will continue to cool despite the nose. May be near, perhaps after dawn before TYS sees anything significant as far as snowfall. KTRI should be all snow well before then.
  5. Windspeed
    Temp holding at 33° but getting a heavy sleet/graupel mix with flakes.
  6. Windspeed
    Same here. Surfaces starting to cover.
  7. Windspeed
    33° here now.
  8. Windspeed
    Same here. This has started well before I expected. Heavy wet flakes. Oh boy...
  9. Windspeed
    Light snow continues to fall with a little bit of sleet mixed. 37 now. I don't think we're going to see any rain at all now. All frozen at this point. Edit: Make that 35° now. Temp is falling fast. I would still consider light snow but it has definitely picked up the pace. Game on...
  10. Windspeed
    Sleet has changed to light snow. Temp is now 38°F. Can't say I ever remember it snowing, even if light, at 38°F.
  11. Windspeed
    I had a burst of heavy sleet for about five minutes and now it's light. Again, expected only light rain at this point, hence my comment that the column must be cooling fast. Hopefully this means we will miss a significant duration of freezing rain.
  12. Windspeed
    I have heavy sleet coming down right now. Surprised as it's 39°. The column must be cooling rapidly. I am about 10 miles just south of Bristol.
  13. Windspeed
    3k NAM is insane. Heavy snow in bright echoes for a long time over KTRI. This is going to be a monster run.
  14. Windspeed
    Still sitting at 40° for four straight hours near Bristol. Kind of surprised it hasn't dropped a little at least. I'm sure it will start falling once the precip picks up.
  15. Windspeed
    Not only has it caved, look at how much better it resolves the vort at 850mb. The past few days it didn't even resolve 145dm. We essentially have stronger lift in the weakness over the Southern/Central Apps. That, and also the precip column should be a classic dynamic cooling event for heavy wet snow.
  16. Windspeed
    Edit: Moving this out of the main thread since I just realized we have this storm obs thread going. John, can you get the obs thread stickied? I reached 41° about an hour ago. Now 40° with a light breeze. Expected high was 43° but that's basically static. Though I guess 2° difference does matter when it's all down hill from here. Idk, perhaps it doesn't matter when it will probably be snowing above 32° for most of the AM, hence the heavy ratio. Probably won't get below freezing until after dawn unless the rates are absurd and it drives down the air temperature in the column much faster.
  17. Windspeed
    I have increased my expectations for the total at my location south of Bristol near the Holston River. My original thinking was 4-6" inches, but these late runs so close to event have me convinced to go higher. I expect 5:1, then 8:1 ratios as the column cools, then perhaps 10:1 between 7-10AM. Thinking 7-10 inches of cement. I had thought some nose might reach us here, perhaps enhanced by some downsloping, but that may be a minimal effect versus rapid cooling of the column. We'll be lucky to keep power.
  18. Windspeed
    Latest ECMWF for posterity:
  19. Windspeed
    Just noticed that for KTRI. Of course, still early in meso land and subject to change, but .25 to .4 with significant heavy snow on top would be disgusting. Models were hinting/showing this last night and I want no part of it. As I said last night as well, hopefully initial rain will transition to sleet quickly and then that forcing turns all snow in short order and remains snow through conclusion of event by Monday AM.
  20. Windspeed
    18z 32k NAM resolved a much better defined 850 vort over N. AL/GA and 700 mb weakness up into Kentucky versus 12z. No surprise at greater forcing and crushing snowfall rates over ETN this round. You can follow the 304dm and 145dm contours respectively.
  21. Windspeed
    Much wetter with a stronger and more pronounced surface low over the panhandle at 42 hr. 850-700 mb weakness is cranking back over ETN by 42 hr and a thumping in progress by 48 hr.
  22. Windspeed
    Not surprised at the NW back building in the 12z ECMWF. At any rate, we're in hirez meso range. Global modeling at this point probably won't change or matter much with the 850-600 mb level weakness against the HP within 24 hours of event in progress. It's hirez meso time from this point forward folks. Good luck to everyone! Hope this event verifies for everyone and the sharp cutoff stays NW enough to produce for those posting/lurking.
  23. Windspeed
    0z NAM was the sweet spot for NE TN/SWVA region. 06z and 12z NAM is caving to the more southerly suppressed trend as well now. The 850-700 mb feature advancing out of E TX/Ark/W TN that was very evident on previous runs just isn't as strong versus stronger heights over Ohio Valley and New England. Still time to swing back but clearly the trend remains South for this system:
  24. Windspeed
    I'd obviously much rather have a period of sleet than freezing rain. Dave Dierks @WCYB seems confident in 4-6 inches of snow for the Bristol area now but I do not want a period of freezing rain mixing in under that. Would mean damage to to grid and power outages galore. Of course, there is also the possibility that the 920 - 850 mb nose doesn't make it NE of Morristown/Greeneville. That would mean KTRI and Abingdon getting crushed with significant heavy wet snow and outages regardless. I have bought into around 7 inches of heavy wet snow at this point for my location. I noticed the NAM crushes us but I just want to see if tonight's Euro stays in play. 36-48 hrs, we're getting into crunch time folks.
  25. Windspeed
    Happy Thanksgiving everyone! Despite all the problems and negativity, and I am plenty guilty of it myself, we are still a blessed country and nation of people. I also would like to say that I am very thankful for this forum and for the people who post here. It is a wonderful community and an avenue to excercise my love of meteorology and science. A big thanks to all of you! Here's to a full belly and many good conversations today. Cheers!
×
×
  • Create New...