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About jgf

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    Offshore Sailing and Racing

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  1. INVEST 90E - unlikely to amount to much.., but still.., kind of an early start... NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center 6 hours ago NHC has issued a Special Tropical Weather Outlook regarding a large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure that has formed over the eastern North Pacific Ocean several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are favorable for some gradual development during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves slowly northwestward. By late this weekend, conditions will become less conducive for development. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 2 p.m. PDT Friday, or earlier, if necessary - www.hurricanes.gov The eastern North Pacific hurricane season officially begins on May 15th, and on June 1st for the Atlantic basin.
  2. I have seen Atlantic forecasts for the 2020 season.., but nothing for the Eastern Pacific. can anyone point me to a discussion or forecast for the 2020 Eastern Pacific tropical season? Thanks
  3. well, i can understand that.., but given that density varies.., two equal values of dPa S^-1 might have completely different actual vertical velocities.. also.., the 850mb surface is itself defined by pressure.., so now we are talking about the rate of change of pressure, on a constant pressure surface... i guess it could be looking, in a lagrangian sense, at the rate of change of pressure for a particle moving through that 850mb surface.., but maybe rather than speculate i will hope that someone clears it up.
  4. in the 850mb and vertical velocity chart.., the units of vertical velocity are dPa s^-1 i googled it, but couldn't find anything - i am very familiar with the Pascal (Pa) as a unit of pressure.., and i am assuming d is for deci ..,but how are pascals per second a unit of velocity?
  5. I often wonder the same thing - were you looking at the unified surface analysis? I think that they put them any where that MSLP contours close - it may however be a contour level that's not plotted besides front's, i also sometimes see many L's plotted in regions with very weak gradients - a relatively flat but undulating surface could have many places where contours close it might also be be a because they see an area of convection on a satellite i think it varies from forecaster to forecaster - some probably put more than others.., although i understand this is becoming automated, so it could be the computer that's doing it sometimes.
  6. if you look on the IBM website for GRAF, they talk a lot about "democratizing" access to good weather forecasts; "IBM Global High-Resolution Atmospheric Forecasting System (IBM GRAF) helps democratize weather forecasts so people, businesses and governments—anywhere—can make better decisions." and here https://newsroom.ibm.com/graf-democratizing-the-worlds-weather-data yet it seems nearly impossible to actually see any of their forecasting products
  7. are any new houses in upstate new york being built with electric heat today? have you looked into the amount of electricity that would be needed to heat all the houses in new england, and compared that with wind and other renewable electricity coming on line? I live near the water - the wind on the water right now.., dec 22, is about 2kts - it's 23degF outside. it's actually fairly common for low wind speeds to be associated with low temperatures.., as a high builds in. it went down to about 20degF overnight is there really any proposal for enough non wind-dependent, non sunlight-dependent, electricity to heat all the houses in new england? 10 years from now, houses in new england will mostly be heated by oil and gas, just as they are today. about the only renewable with a chance of making a dent in home heating over the next 10 years is wood pellets
  8. did NY also place a moratorium on heating houses? i would bet >95% are heated with oil or gas - and i doubt that will change significantly any time in the next decade
  9. interesting - i have seen cloud streets at sea in the trade winds.., but didn't realize it was the same thing here so, a parcel of air must follow a helical path - roughly from NW to SE in the example above, with the surface winds in a herringbone pattern
  10. big difference between ECMWF and GFS for the track of Invest 95 - this is today's 6z GFS and 6z EC forecast for friday nov 2 GFS in blue, EC in black
  11. In this image, you can clearly see the cold front that has passed over the east coast and moved out to sea. you can also see the expected cloud development in the vicinity of the front - lot's of cumulus clouds right behind the front and pretty high tops at the front. I am asking about the clouds that basically are forming right off the coast - they are pretty low, and aligned in a NNW-SSE direction - parallel to the low level winds.., and perpendicular to the cold front when you watch an animation, the clouds are not really moving offshore - rather they are forming right offshore, and getting entrained in the winds. so we have cold air moving over warmer water - why are the low level NNW -SSE clouds forming?
  12. https://codepen.io/mcmcghee/full/GYmZjZ upper right it's stopped but you can still view the last 5 min or so
  13. Sorry if this should be in the 101 forum..., but I guessed this one would be more appropriate... Anyway... The NOAA NHC Tropical Weather Outlook: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 It gives an estimated probability for a "Tropical Disturbance" to develop into a "Cyclone" over the next few days. For example, in the current TWO, the probability of Disturbance #1 becoming a cyclone is 30% over the next 48hrs, and 40% over the next 5 days. This is the one currently between Bermuda and the Bahamas. Disturbance 1 is elsewhere called Invest 98 I have always figured that the % probability refers to the probability of the tropical disturbance becoming a tropical depression (or greater) - is that correct? The lowest level cyclone is a depression, according to most definitions, so this makes the most sense However, I was trying to confirm this, and looked at the product description page for the Tropical Weather Outlook, but I don't see anything more specific for this development % figure. the description says: "The Tropical Weather Outlook discusses significant areas of disturbed weather and their potential for development during the next 5 days, including a categorical forecast of the probability of tropical cyclone formation during the first 48 hours, and during the entire 5-day forecast period. The 48 h and 5-day probabilities of formation for each disturbance are given to the nearest 10% and expressed in terms of one of the following categories: low probability of development (0-30%), medium probability (40-60%), and high probability of development (70-100%)." https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutnhcprod.shtml#TWO
  14. Euro predicted ~3" for me.., but I got ~8"... that's 2.5 X the forecast...