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About jgf

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    Offshore Sailing and Racing
  1. The SailFlow private sensor on Culebrita survived the passage recording gusts of ~140mph... the sensor is on the light house which is the highest point on the (tiny) island - i've attached a photo i took from the light house a few years ago
  2. 12Z GFS with WaveWatch III significant wave height in meters 18m - probably the biggest i have ever seen it forecast...
  3. Significant Wave Height forecast (meters) from the NOAA WaveWatch III model almost 14m in the center... OPC is saying 50ft possible
  4. The School in L'Orient.., would be pretty low (pun intended..) on my list of places to shelter from a hurricane passing just north of the island... i can't really think off hand of any large public buildings that are at high elevation, but many houses/villas are i guess i would probably go to this party and hope for the best! edit - for those who don't know.., even though it says "Guadeloupe".., it is in Gustavia, St. barth, so just a few miles south of the track- St barth is in the french department of guadeloupe, which includes all the french islands in the caribbean
  5. i travel there pretty regularly too - while i agree with what you say, i think they will fare better than any other island would if it got hit with a cat 5 eyewall - as they might... it is basically a 1st world place - people don't live in shacks...
  6. my very first post in the thread addressed the issue of insufficient proficiency in algebra yes, of course it's critical to have a good working knowledge of algebra before taking even a basic calculus class what i said in that post was that you need to go back to whatever level your weakness starts at, and learn from there - that might even be pre-algebra stuff - fractions, decimals, geometry, and so on... if you do that - and it might take a year or two - i am confident that you can reach a level of preparation that will enable you to succeed in basic calculus class based on your previous posts, i am sure you won't agree, so let's agree to disagree
  7. I went to undergraduate school at a pretty good "highly competitive", but not great, smaller liberal arts college, with quite good science departments and very good engineering departments. like a lot of schools, that school had two tracks for first-year calculus. They had an easier track which was basically one year long - 1 semester of differential calc, and one semester of integral calc. This was the "cookbook" class - it was mostly taken by humanities majors, as well as some science/econ majors who wanted a BA rather than a BS. I maintain that pretty much anyone with high school math through algebra could succeed in this calc sequence - i am not sure it even involved trig. I certainly don't agree that it was necessary to "already know the material" to get say a B. nearly all homework and test questions could be solved by following the steps outlined in the example problems. The other track was much harder (different text books), and consisted of 3 semesters - differential, integral, and multivariable. this was mostly math and engineering students, as well as science/econ majors who wanted a BS. This sequence was not cookbook, and i was challenged by it. in this track, there were proofs, and it was common to see questions on exams that were not exactly like anything in the homework. Because i was an idiot and had no clue what i wanted to do.., i ended up taking both! I will note that I am old enough that I was in college before it was common for students to have had calculus in high school. Today, many students going to "highly competitive" colleges have had some level of calculus in high school. My kid's high school offered two levels of first year calc - roughly equivalent to the levels i outlined above, as well as a pretty advanced multivariable class.., and a linear algebra class. the kids taking multivariable and linear algebra, had all had the harder first year of calc in their junior year of high school!
  8. if tropical cyclones are in part a reflection of the heat imbalance between equatorial regions and polar regions.., wouldn't the observation that the poles are warming more rapidly than equatorial regions argue for fewer cyclones?
  9. so I understand that in a basic sense, when i look at the super res velocity in radarscope, i am seeing the magnitude of the vector component of wind parallel to the radius from the radar location - at the altitude of the return but when there is no rain.., what is actually being measured? here is KOKX (Upton NY) saturday august 28 at about 11:25am it's a bright sunny day - for the most part, as indicated by the reflectivity the velocity plot is indicating relative movement with respect to the radar my question is: relative movement of what?
  10. sorry to infuriate you... but i still feel the same way.
  11. South Beach, Ocean City NJ
  12. i am in darien - my power was out already for about 30min i think - i wasn't home it was back on when i got home major road (for darien) is closed around the corner
  13. i race sailboats, so i look at the hrrr wind forecasts quite a lot - i notice that it is frequently initialized with directions completely different than what is observed
  14. some local wind speeds...
  15. So, when NWS says A strong southern branch upper low over the Tennessee Valley this morning will send a deepening surface low off the Mid Atlantic coast this afternoon. does "southern branch" just refer to the geographic location? as far as i know there is no officially designated "southern branch" of the NWS... it's in today's AFD from Upton NY, discussing the big storm expected later today