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tmagan

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  1. tmagan

    Did Hurricane Andrew Hit As a Cat 5 Or Not?

    Here is the last NHC advisory on Andrew just before landfall. ZCZC MIATCPAT4 TTAA00 KNHC 240249 BULLETIN HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA... HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES ...220 KM...EAST OF MIAMI. ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THIS PATH THE CENTER OF ANDREW WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING. ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. NASSAU...BAHAMAS...REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH NEAR 830 PM EDT...0030Z. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 14 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR SOME LOCATIONS ON THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...WITH UP TO 18 FEET POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST AND KEYS NEAR TO WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...WITH POSSIBLE HEIGHTS OF 9 TO 13 FEET IN BISCAYNE BAY. STORM SURGES OF 7 TO 11 FEET ARE POSSIBLE ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE HURRICANE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE PATH OF THE HURRICANE. A FEW ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...25.4 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD ...WEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB. INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EDT AND 3 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT 5 AM EDT...MONDAY.
  2. tmagan

    Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii

    There is a buoy in the eye that reported a wind gust of over 90 knots.
  3. Soulik probably wont be at typhoon intensity when it makes landfall in Korea, but fairly remarkable that Thursday will have simultaneous possible typhoon landfalls in Japan and Korea.
  4. tmagan

    Hurricane Lane impacts Hawaii

    Reading all this reminds me of a NHC Hurricane Floyd forecast discussion from 1999: ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT MON SEP 13 1999 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/12. THE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS BASICALLY UNCHANGED...CALLING FOR AN EROSION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FLOYD AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT A LITTLE FASTER AND NOW SHOWS THE CENTER CROSSING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AFTER 48 HOURS. THERE ARE NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN THE MOTION OF THE HURRICANE OR IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE AND NONE OF THE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE HURRICANE OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HOWEVER SINCE FLOYD IS FORECAST TO MOVE DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...AS PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE ...A HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO INCLUDE DADE COUNTY FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK ALSO REQUIRES THAT THE HURRICANE WATCH BE EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. RECON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND GPS DROPS IN THE EYEWALL SUPPORT 135 KNOTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WIND. THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 921 MB WHICH CORRELATES WITH 140 KNOTS...AND THE HURRICANE COULD EVEN GET A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER 135 KNOTS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO GET EVERYONES ATTENTION. LAWRENCE FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/1500Z 24.1N 72.1W 135 KTS 12HR VT 14/0000Z 24.5N 74.0W 135 KTS 24HR VT 14/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 135 KTS 36HR VT 15/0000Z 27.3N 78.8W 135 KTS 48HR VT 15/1200Z 29.6N 80.3W 135 KTS 72HR VT 16/1200Z 35.0N 80.5W 65 KTS...INLAND
  5. tmagan

    May 2018 General Discussion

    Impressive mid-level swirl with the complex over SE IA.
  6. Islip, NY has just observed nine inches of snow in two hours, something you see in the great lake effect bands.
  7. 1) Arctic air has been absent from the region since mid January 2) Central Park March months with ten or more inches of snow are rare
  8. Have they used any this year?
  9. I think it will be much closer to 3".
  10. Also, I'd look for a top ten wettest March in Central Park.
  11. CPC has a 40% chance of above normal temperatures in March. I think it is pretty much a lock of an above normal mean March temperatures.
  12. Happened around December 30th in the winter of 1989 - 1990, which is pretty similar to this winter without the snow.
  13. That is a bit of a misnomer. You can snow in late March/early April with a cold core upper level low overhead which brings the cold air downward while surrounding areas are above freezing. For reference, the early April Long Island snowfall a few years ago.
  14. tmagan

    Jan 29/30 storm threat

    I noticed this too, common with any coastal low.
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