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About StudentOfClimatology

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    Glen Echo, MD

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  1. I agree that 1957-58 had more Niño4 forcing, but just by a little bit. The Niño4 OLR differential between 1957-58 and 1972-73 is small, relative to the differential in eastern regions which was much larger. I'd actually argue that 1957-58 featured more basinwide forcing relative to 1972-73, which featured stronger forcing in Niño3.4 & weaker forcing in both Niño4, Niño3 and Niño1-2. There's also a positive correlation between IO forcing and the PDO in Niño winters, so maybe they're linked.
  2. True, but when looking at OLR, 1957-58 actually had significantly more Niño1-2/Niño3 forcing N of the equator than 1972-73, to the point where the east/west forcing contrast was greater in 1972-73 than 1957-58. Niño4 forcing alone is probably insufficient to explain what happened w/ the NPAC that season. There were significant differences w/ the IO/maritime forcing, which probably explains a lot of the pattern differentials.
  3. The 1972-73 Niño was okay re: ENSO forcing longitude..not that different from 1957-58. It was a screwy winter due to forcing differences over the IO/Maritime domain.
  4. What droughts are you referring to, specifically? The instrumental record is relatively short, so you run into sample-size issues when trying to analyze the proxy-instrument relationship. Interpolating it back in time can be tricky too because antecedent conditions governing tree growth can change. I'm an A.S student specializing in paleoclimate and seasonal forecasting. I've done tree ring analysis before. I'm sure you could manage it. Interpreting tree rings doesn't require an advanced degree.
  5. The easterlies have actually been stronger than average in Niño 1-2 and Niño 3 recently. Looks like primary forcing/WWBs will be shifting west for a bit as easterlies strengthen further over Niño 1-2 and Niño 3. Also notice the flip in the IO. This may allow for some relative cooling in the eastern regions:
  6. Where'd you read that? Week 3 and week 4 both have a +PNA going:
  7. The problem is there's so much contamination potential, given the slew of factors that influence tree growth, that isolating a single variable on a 1yr resolution using a tree ring proxy is extremely difficult. I would never attempt to do it myself. Tree ring spacing is influenced by precipitation, temperature variation on multiple timescales , sunshine hours, wind speed/transevaporation rates, etc, and varies with different tree species. There are a lot of factors that need to be accounted for here. What they're doing is risky and may flaw the entire study should there not be a way of isolating these phenomena and determining their role.
  8. No tree ring proxy will capture snowpack variability on a year-to-year resolution. I'm fairly certain this paper doesn't claim otherwise.
  9. That was a good one. I think I experienced lower visibility in the subsequent ground blizzard than in the actual snow squalls.
  10. Low of 48.6 here last night. Currently 70.8/48.