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StudentOfClimatology

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Everything posted by StudentOfClimatology

  1. StudentOfClimatology

    Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

    I agree that 1957-58 had more Niño4 forcing, but just by a little bit. The Niño4 OLR differential between 1957-58 and 1972-73 is small, relative to the differential in eastern regions which was much larger. I'd actually argue that 1957-58 featured more basinwide forcing relative to 1972-73, which featured stronger forcing in Niño3.4 & weaker forcing in both Niño4, Niño3 and Niño1-2. There's also a positive correlation between IO forcing and the PDO in Niño winters, so maybe they're linked.
  2. StudentOfClimatology

    Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

    True, but when looking at OLR, 1957-58 actually had significantly more Niño1-2/Niño3 forcing N of the equator than 1972-73, to the point where the east/west forcing contrast was greater in 1972-73 than 1957-58. Niño4 forcing alone is probably insufficient to explain what happened w/ the NPAC that season. There were significant differences w/ the IO/maritime forcing, which probably explains a lot of the pattern differentials.
  3. StudentOfClimatology

    Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

    The 1972-73 Niño was okay re: ENSO forcing longitude..not that different from 1957-58. It was a screwy winter due to forcing differences over the IO/Maritime domain.
  4. StudentOfClimatology

    Climate Change Banter

    What droughts are you referring to, specifically? The instrumental record is relatively short, so you run into sample-size issues when trying to analyze the proxy-instrument relationship. Interpolating it back in time can be tricky too because antecedent conditions governing tree growth can change. I'm an A.S student specializing in paleoclimate and seasonal forecasting. I've done tree ring analysis before. I'm sure you could manage it. Interpreting tree rings doesn't require an advanced degree.
  5. StudentOfClimatology

    Favorite Winter Terms, Phrases, and Images

    Banding
  6. StudentOfClimatology

    Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

    The easterlies have actually been stronger than average in Niño 1-2 and Niño 3 recently. Looks like primary forcing/WWBs will be shifting west for a bit as easterlies strengthen further over Niño 1-2 and Niño 3. Also notice the flip in the IO. This may allow for some relative cooling in the eastern regions:
  7. StudentOfClimatology

    Possible strong/super El Niño forming?

    Where'd you read that? Week 3 and week 4 both have a +PNA going:
  8. StudentOfClimatology

    Favorite Winter Terms, Phrases, and Images

    #nostalgia
  9. StudentOfClimatology

    Climate Change Banter

    The problem is there's so much contamination potential, given the slew of factors that influence tree growth, that isolating a single variable on a 1yr resolution using a tree ring proxy is extremely difficult. I would never attempt to do it myself. Tree ring spacing is influenced by precipitation, temperature variation on multiple timescales , sunshine hours, wind speed/transevaporation rates, etc, and varies with different tree species. There are a lot of factors that need to be accounted for here. What they're doing is risky and may flaw the entire study should there not be a way of isolating these phenomena and determining their role.
  10. StudentOfClimatology

    Climate Change Banter

    No tree ring proxy will capture snowpack variability on a year-to-year resolution. I'm fairly certain this paper doesn't claim otherwise.
  11. StudentOfClimatology

    September Banter

    Congrats, where to?
  12. StudentOfClimatology

    September Banter

    Yeah, no thanks.
  13. StudentOfClimatology

    Favorite Winter Terms, Phrases, and Images

    That was a good one. I think I experienced lower visibility in the subsequent ground blizzard than in the actual snow squalls.
  14. StudentOfClimatology

    September 2015 Obs and Disco

    Low of 48.6 here last night. Currently 70.8/48.
  15. StudentOfClimatology

    September 2015 Obs and Disco

    Complete whiff here.
  16. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    This is the problem you run into when comparing radiosonde datasets to satellite datasets. http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature/validation Most of the radiosonde launching stations are located in the same geographic realms, and all have similar sampling issues over the oceans and over the SH. This explains why the radiosonde datasets tend to trend closer to one another, and visa-versa regarding the satellites. Simply comparing them with no quality control is a pretty dumb way to go about this, because the numbers will never match up.
  17. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    When accounting for the lack of spatial sampling in the radiosonde data (by sub-sampling the RSS data only in areas covered by the radiosonde data), close to 90% of the divergence is eliminated. It can therefore be concluded that the lack of spatial sampling in the radiosonde data is the primary reason for the divergence. http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature/validation Using HadAT, which has the largest spatial coverage of any radiosonde dataset, you can see that when the lack of spatial sampling is accounted for via sub-sampling, the divergence is eliminated:
  18. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    Yes, this was discussed by the RSS team and it was found that the vast majority of the divergence between RSS and the radiosonde datasets can be attributed to the lack of spatial sampling in the radiosonde datasets. This is actually a fascinating read. http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature/validation Some paleoclimate studies have come to the conclusion that TCR/ESC is unstable and non-linear, owning to an every changing boundary state. I wouldn't rule anything out.
  19. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    No, they don't say anything about UAH or RSS. You're looking at two completely different domains in a non-linear, cooperative thermodynamic relationship. The accelerated SST/OHC warming may, in fact, explain the lack of lower tropospheric warming. An reduction in global surface wind speeds by just 0.4m/s, for example, may account for reduced evaporative cooling of the oceans (warming), and reduced latent heat transport into the troposphere (cooling). Could a reduction in global wind speeds be attributed to AGW? There is some modeling suggesting this to be the case as the Hadley Cells expand and the equator-pole thermal gradient weakens.
  20. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    Word in the E.S dept here on campus is that UAH will submit a validation paper sometime this winter. For their sake, I hope they do it sooner rather than later.
  21. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    That looks like an old validation paper from 1999. Is there anything newer regarding their interpolation/sampling procedures w/ the newer AMSU/sonde data? Most of the sondes and sounding units used back in 1999 are no longer operable.
  22. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    What data is being used in the NCEP reanalysis? If it's radiosonde data, the divergence is probably related non-homogenous sampling between NCEP and the satellite data before extrapolation. The RSS team found that the accounting for sampling differentials corrected about 90% of the divergence w/ the radiosonde data. http://www.remss.com/measurements/upper-air-temperature/validation Meanwhile, if it's satellite data they're using, the question is what satellite(s) are they using and have they accounted for orbital and diurnal drift to an adequate extent?
  23. StudentOfClimatology

    2015 Global Temperatures

    RSS measures from 70S to 82.5N, or ~ 95% of the globe.
  24. StudentOfClimatology

    September 2015 Obs and Disco

    The pattern over the Pacific looks nothing like any of the modern super-niño Septembers. Lots of Aleutian ridging. Looking at the CPC ensemble analogs for the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods, I have yet to see 1997-98, 1982-83, or 1972-73 crack the top 10 all summer. In fact, the only niño years to show up consistently are 1965-66, 1968-69, and 2002-03. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610analog.off.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814analog.off.gif
  25. StudentOfClimatology

    Antarctic Sea Ice Extent

    It's possible, but most of the literature blames increasing O^3 depletion for the stronger PV/SAM. The depletion of O^3 has resulted from a combination of both anthropogenic CFC emissions, and a weakening planetary magnetic field.
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