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Isotherm

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  1. For the years with blocking, 2009-11 juxtaposed with 2013-15, the NAO centric blocking of the former period still wins for ny area. 72" and 58" vs. 64" and 53". Close, but if I had my ideal scenario, I would prefer NAO centric blocking due to snowpack retention, which was better in 09 to 11 vs the latter period. I95 tends to be more prone to occasional warming without downstream blocking. The bursts of severe cold might not occur as frequently, but I'd trade that for persistent snow cover.
  2. Yeah, I checked the records for the COOP station nearest to me, and it appears 33F was reached as late as May 25th. Last freezing temperature was the 20th. Yesterday 81 and today 83 here. It seems like we've been doing the "second week of April 80F dance" almost every year lately.
  3. Yeah, winds were still busy here until about 4am. If we decoupled earlier, it likely would have been colder. We are generally one of the cooler spots in NJ other than the SNJ Pine Barrens and the deeper valleys of NW NJ on clear / calm nights. I've personally witnessed frost as late as mid May around here, and I know out latest 32F on record was around the end of May. But most years we can count on some sub freezing nights into late April.
  4. 29.5F this morning here. Still before my average last freeze date which is circa April 18th. I expect to see at least a couple more nights sub freezing.
  5. Temp bust today? Backdoor slicing through monmouth with temps in the 50s vs forecasts of mid / upper 60s.
  6. I have read conflicting figures; some sources indicate greater than 45 degrees is the threshold for D conversion in the skin. If so, one could receive some D as early as the second week of March and as late as late September.
  7. 3.08" total for the event here. Impressive. Almost 7" of precip for the month of March.
  8. Seems like we're jackpotting here. 2.52" thus far and still pouring. 42F.
  9. 1.54" and pouring here. 40.4F.
  10. Agree. Quite cold here as well with temperatures stable in the 42-45F range today. Impressive period of marine induced chill. I am at -3.6 for March here. As you posted heretofore, there will likely be another trough amplification subsequent to early next week's potential storm, so at the very least, no protracted warmth on the horizon. 0c 850s invading the NE again on the euro in the D7+. Thinking that after we were well ahead of schedule in terms of vegetation growth, we may begin to fall behind. Due to the cold March, vegetation is fairly close to on schedule right now (that is, still essentially dormant save for some silver maple red buds and growing buds on early flowering trees).
  11. -3.7 for the month here. Mean temperature only slightly warmer than January. 39.2F with persistent mist here. Daytime temps never surpassed 41 - on par with January. This week looks generally near normal overall with mid to upper 50s for the most part. Tomorrow has the best chance for 60F+ it appears.
  12. Unimpressive late March high of 62.6 here, and now down into the upper 40s, continuing to plummet, with gusty, raw NELY winds. The interior may sneak in a warm day Tuesday, but it's a mediocre mild pattern for the coast. 60s at the end of March isn't anomalous like it is in winter. Keep in mind normals are getting into the upper 50s now.
  13. General rule of thumb is to forecast a slightly more equatorward progression of backdoors, especially given the cold waters and snow cover to the north. This looks like a rather dreary pattern to me with backdoor city from 40N northward and limited torching - which is 70+ at this time of year
  14. 21F at MJX in the NJ Pine Barrens.