Isotherm

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About Isotherm

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    Veritas Vos Liberabit
  • Birthday 09/24/1990

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    http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

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    Colts Neck, NJ

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  1. Thanks, @WEATHER53. Should be in approximately 2-3 weeks.
  2. A strict construction of the ENSO-oceanic analysis may reveal neutral tending toward weak nino, but inclusion of the GSDM into the analysis yields a different conclusion. The total sum of momentum additions/subtractions evinces an apparent deficit/easterly momentum dominating the tropical/sub-tropical domains, and as such, retrogressive features will be the mainstay of the short to medium term. Whether the GWO neutralizes, thereby comporting more with the oceanic appearance remains to be seen.
  3. Yes, I agree. The cool down is unimpressive. Only when juxtaposed with the recent week's heat does it seem more dramatic; however, average first frosts are nearing for most of NNJ in suburbia. As far as drought, my local area is still fine, due the excessive rains we received this past summer.
  4. Station indicates a high of 93F for my area today. Today was the hottest October day I can ever remember. There have been memorable days in the mid-upper 80s, but they had a much more "summer in autumn" type feel. Today, to me, was indistinguishable from mid July, if I didn't have a calendar handy.
  5. 81F dew point 55 here, after a morning low of 50. Warm in the sun but still quite comfortable.
  6. 42.5F to 77.5F and now down to 58F already. Impressive diurnal ranges the next few days.
  7. I am not sure precisely what is included in this index; however, while it may be a fine proxy for ENSO specifically, I do not believe it adequately considers other pertinent variables, such as the GWO and associated torque variations, which would provide a more veracious macroscale view in my opinion. At several points on that graph in which neutral or Nino is depicted, other indicators such as GWO cycling and tropical forcing ostensibly indicated a Nina esque atmospheric regime. Again, it may be fine for the purposes which it is designed for, but I personally would not rely upon it as the most accurate indicator of the macroscale atmospheric status.
  8. KA was one of the few in the already small long range community who produced consistent results. I did not initiate my long range forecasting career as early as you, KA, or Matt. However, I began in 2006, and have a 80.0% success rate [including summer/winter outlooks, 25 outlooks total sample size]. As per usual, I intend to issue a winter outlook again this autumn. Will look forward to reading yours.
  9. Thanks, Paul. I'm envisioning another interesting outlook season -- think there will be a bit more divergence in forecasts this year.
  10. I concur, @SACRUS. Wednesday will likely be a near miss; Thursday has a good chance as does Mon-Tues.
  11. Yes, no disagreement there. The second half of August tended cooler and 90F days were too high in the PHL-NYC corridor as noted in the verification above. There may actually be 1 to 3 more chances for 90F for many of these stations but we'll see on that.
  12. This is a warmer than average August for most of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Slightly warmer than normal (but remember, the forecast for August was not very hot either).
  13. Dew points were quite high most of August through the third week. It was very humid, and most in the Northeast corridor were slightly warmer than normal. While August was slightly cooler departure wise than expected, July compensated. The trimonthly range is most important for long range seasonals (which directly hit). I often debate whether I should even include monthlies, because it's substantially higher difficulty than the already difficult seasonal, and people will tend to myopically focus on any comparatively diminutive error in one of the monthlies. And the "increasing heat and humidity" was taken a bit out of context. July and August certainly featured increased heat and humidity compared to June, with respect to normal. The assertion in the outlook was that the first 1/3 of summer would be coolest relative to normal with increasing warmth/humidity thereafter, which verified objectively.
  14. Summer outlook verification can be found here. The summer went very well in accordance with expectations.