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Isotherm

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  1. Same here, and I've yet to hit 90 this month. Highest was 89 on the 1st.
  2. If we achieve weak Nina while concurrently maintaining a +PDO, that would be a very conducive, rare couplet.
  3. The euro seasonal reminded me of the 76 z500 progression to a certain extent. Big cold from Nov-Jan, then winter dies thereafter. I guess one could call 76 a front end winter since it was very Dec/Jan weighted in terms of cold. The AMO has been hampering cold December prospects as well as the unpropitious NAO signal, a multifactorial issue.
  4. The old farmers almanac looks like it went furnace, with a warm and wet look. I will post the maps later. Last winter it went mild for most of the country and snowy in the interior Northeast. I've been checking the OFA forecasts since the early 2000s and have found they are much more accurate than the FA. Lets hope the FA is correct. I think the FA went cold last year too. Of course you don't see the OFA in the news headlines because it's a benign look.
  5. Must be at least several thousand feet. That's a cold summer morning low for that latitude.
  6. 2005 had a nice 2 week stretch the first half of December, 2002 was also one of the best Decembers in my memory with a SECS on the 5th and a snowy Christmas night. 2000 was a good front loaded winter with the MECs during the holiday week and cold January. IIRC, while not a great winter, 98-99 featured some snow around Christmas. Edit - yes, 2 to 4" event through NJ on the 23rd-24th of 1998. Not sure what NYC recorded.
  7. First map is skewed by the very wet May. I had over 8". But meteorological summer has been dry locally in CNJ, with about 6.8" here since June 1.
  8. 82.5F here, beautiful day.
  9. Statistical data corroborates that. Generally above normal snowfall Decembers yield at or above normal seasons for NYC.
  10. Agreed, 2010-11 is my favorite winter as well given I was too young for 1995-96. 57.7" of snow here with seemingly constant snow events from 12/26-1/27, and snow pack until the third week of February. I would agree with the above that - outside of an anomalous event in the first half of December - sustained winter, in terms of snow pack preservation, doesn't really begin until post December 15th for us (as the early opportunity). But even then, looking retrospectively through NYC's snow depth records, the week of 12/20 is generally the starting point for snow pack preservation in the great/excellent winters. But I would just like to have a colder than normal Thanksgiving-Christmas period even if the snow totals aren't huge; there's something about 60 degrees for weeks in December that's entirely antithetical to the winter feel. If I can't snow, I'd at least rather be 37F and windy with flurries, running up toward the holiday period. So, definitely agreed that the Euro pushed forward a month would be ideal. The sun angle isn't too much of an issue in terms of preservation until you get into the last 10-15 days or so of February. A winter stretching from approximately mid December through mid February would be perfect (obviously Dec-Mar would be perfect, but maintaining a great pattern for four consecutive months is extremely rare from BOS southward).
  11. Thank you, frd. Still have 1/2 of August remaining, but meteorological summer is winding down, and I would agree that things are progressing very well/as expected for the most part. Will do official verification at end of month. Precip is always difficult given the convective mode in the summer, but most in my forecasted above normal pcpn region have verified.
  12. Saw the Euro seasonal today. Wish we could lock that in right now; it's ideal, and it has the type of winter I've been craving for awhile - namely one which maximizes the low sun angle period. Jumps into winter in November with a trough in the East, +PNA/-EPO across the West connecting with a robust -NAO/AO. That pattern continues through December, and looks like it reaches a climax in January with the deep trough and above normal precipitation. It then breaks down with a more furnace type look by February. I've always preferred to flush Feb/Mar down the toilet if we hit hard from Thanksgiving through Feb 1, much like 2010-11. Winters that go wire to wire from Nov-April, ala 1995-96, are extremely rare. Do I believe it? Well, there are reasons to doubt it, but for now, we're in the classic "optimistic" part of the pre-season (in which we fantasize about a blockbuster winter before reality starts to take hold - hopefully not).
  13. It was also a function of pure luck with convection progression. I'm at 6.67" for meteorological summer thus far, very dry. Central NJ has been getting the short end of the stick for T-storms. Still running a positive precipitation departure long term / for 2017 due to the very wet spring.
  14. Feels more like late August / early Sept recently. Waking up with a string of mornings in the 50s here. Even if we flip warmer than normal down the road (which I think we do), this is akin to having a warm pattern in the heart of winter; it really acts to shorten the severity of the season overall. Once we transition out of this pattern, averages are such that 90+ becomes increasingly anomalous. I think we will pick up a handful more 90s, and that will probably come in the Aug 20 - Sept 10 period.
  15. Stayed in the 60s here too at 69F. Average for first week of october.