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Isotherm

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About Isotherm

  • Birthday 09/24/1990

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    http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

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  • Location:
    Colts Neck, NJ

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  1. 4th 90 of the year here, 89.6.
  2. 45 here. Not bad for mid June.
  3. 66% of days have been cloudy or mostly cloudy since April 1st. Rumor has it, there's currently a mass exodus of people getting on boats leaving the region. The extreme vitamin D deficiency in the Northeastern populace is beginning to induce synaptic transmission interruptions and resultant insanity.
  4. 8.34" for May here.
  5. Isotherm

    My Summer Outlook 2018

    Thanks, Don.
  6. Isotherm

    My Summer Outlook 2018

    Questions/Comments welcome, as always. A bit later than typical due to time constraints, but glad to have made it prior to the 31st deadline. http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Snippet: The Outlook for the NYC local region stations Meteorological Summer JJA Temperature Departures: 0 to +1; Near normal to Slightly Warmer than Normal 90 Degree Days: 18-25 Across Most of the NJ-NYC-LI Area; 10-18 along the immediate coast Meteorological Summer JJA Precipitation Departures: Wet to Much Wetter than Normal; spatial distribution of summertime convection renders greater forecast specificity useless Hurricane Outlook: Named storms – around 10; Hurricanes – around 5; Major Hurricanes – 1 to 2; Impact – greater than normal potential in South Texas, Florida, and the Southeast US Coastline.
  7. 4.72" total here. Very impressive.
  8. Road closures all over Lincroft/Freehold/Red Bank/Tinton Falls and numerous outages. I have well over 3" and counting. Some spots have well over 4" in Lincroft - where they experienced the first round last night. Excellent lightning/thunder show the past 24 hrs. Incredible spring rainfall wise around here. Up to 17"+ of rain for meteorological spring March 1st-May 27th period so far. Would think this is one our wettest on record.
  9. Isotherm

    may 10-16 convection

    I rarely become intrigued by severe threats in the coastal Northeast, but this is indubitably a set-up which is more felicitous than most we have seen over the past several years. The novel variable that differentiates the present potential is the rapid diminution of dew points in the mid-levels, the proxy for which is the, "Elevated Mixed Layer," and as such, obviates the development of energy-eroding, lower-intensity, multicellular storms. This enables the proverbial top of the pot to boil over suddenly, such that explosive updrafts can form. We have already seen that. An emerging cold pool, in concert with highly auspicious low and (more importantly) mid-level lapse rates, enhanced lifted indices, CAPE (in other words: sfc based, diurnally elicited instability is present), robust bulk shear of predominately unidirectional nature, all juxtaposed this afternoon. There will be a significant decrease in SB instability over the eastern half of Long Island, and potentially the immediate beaches of NJ. But the vast majority of the area will have a moderate to high probability for strong to severe convection between 6-8pm. This is about as classic as it gets for a widespread wind damage potential, in terms of the preconditioning. Currently 89.2F/72 here.
  10. Isotherm

    Negative NAO Winter

    Moderately to strongly positive NAO winter, for meteorological winter DJF. My forecast of a +NAO winter verified. Another successful year for the indicators. 2017 0.88 2018 1.44 1.58
  11. Ended up with 23.1" here, my snowiest March on record per COOP data. 54.3" here on the season. 30-year normals are very, very impressive now.
  12. Thank you @nzucker. Appreciate it. Yeah, I did mention in the outlook that the analogs suggested a return to snowfall/winter in March, although DJF was my forecast period temperature wise. It was pretty clear, IMO, by early February - that we'd see a significant pattern change for March, given the historic downwelling SSW.
  13. Verification: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/archives/1108 VERIFICATION Meteorological Winter Temperature Departures: Meteorological Winter Precipitation Departures: Local Statistics: Dec-Jan-Feb Temperature Departure Outlook: +0.5 to +1.5; Warmer than normal Actual DJF Departures: NYC: +1.1 Newark, NJ: +1.4 LGA, NY: +1.2 Snowfall Forecast: New York City: 27-34” Actual Snowfall for Winter 2017-18: NYC: 35.2″ Newark, NJ: 33.9″ LGA, NY: 32.0″ *Note* – snowfall was significantly greater immediately south of NYC, and east of NYC over Long Island with totals of 40-50″+. Commentary and Grading This winter could not have gone much better as far as overall temperature departures – values fell directly within the ranges provided from the winter outlook, circa +1 for the DJF period. The way in which we arrived there was quite volatile, and expected to a significant extent. The cold/much colder than normal December verified, as did the very warm second half of the winter. The second half of January 2018 turned very warm, but the cold in the first half of the month led to a colder than normal January departure, an unexpected curve-ball. Nevertheless, the warmth was more than sufficient in the second half to countervail the negatives, and produce a solid positive/warm anomaly. Nationwide, the idea that the South and the East would be warmer than normal w/ the core of the cold over the Rockies/N Plains verified well. One flaw was that the Southern Plains ended up cooler than forecasted. Precipitation wise, the general idea of wetter than normal over the inter-mountain West, and the Appalachians/Northeast-Mid-Atlantic with drier conditions across the South verified fairly well. Select snowfall for other cities: Boston: 57.5″ / Forecast: 50-57” NYC: 35.2″ / Forecast: 27-34” LGA: 32″ / Forecast: 27-34” JFK: 31.8″ / Forecast: 27-34” Newark, NJ: 33.9″ /Forecast: 27-34” Islip: 61.3″ Bridgeport: 39.9″ Philadelphia: 29.8″ / Forecast: 17-24” New Brunswick, NJ: 40.6″ / Forecast: 27-34” Wash DC: 7.8″ / Forecast: 9-16” Baltimore: 15″ / Forecast: 12-19” Dulles: 11.9″ Worcester, MA: 86.6″ (+/- 3″) Hartford, CT: 48.3″ (+/- 3″) Providence, RI: 45.9″ Overall, the snowfall forecast verified very well, with the forecast for less snow than normal south of the Mason-Dixon line, and snowier than normal in New England, working out correctly. NYC itself verified well. The one flaw/unexpected area was from portions of central NJ through Long Island, which had quite a bit more snowfall than I expected (40-50″+). Favorable storm tracks benefited these areas. Snowfall is always the most difficult part of a long range forecast due to the non-linear/stochastic nature of snow storms. Final Grade – this, overall, will go into the “hit” column, bringing my long term accuracy rate since 2006-07 up to 82%. Precipitation: A- Temperatures: A Snowfall: A- Winter 2017-18 Final Grade: A-
  14. Early Spring is not coming this year. We will essentially experience a "hand-off" of forcing mechanisms, such that one set of variables favoring cold will transition to another set of variables, still favoring cold. The torque discussion and momentum removal/addition plays a significant role, and the concomitant wave-breaks involved. The negative NAO signal will collapse following this storm, at least temporarily, but the -EPO/+PNA will then become preeminent.
  15. March mean temperature is 37F here so far, 4 degrees below February's. My mean high of 43F is a full seven degrees below February's mean high of 50F. That's incredible.
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