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Isotherm

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    Colts Neck, NJ

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  1. -3.7 for the month here. Mean temperature only slightly warmer than January. 39.2F with persistent mist here. Daytime temps never surpassed 41 - on par with January. This week looks generally near normal overall with mid to upper 50s for the most part. Tomorrow has the best chance for 60F+ it appears.
  2. Unimpressive late March high of 62.6 here, and now down into the upper 40s, continuing to plummet, with gusty, raw NELY winds. The interior may sneak in a warm day Tuesday, but it's a mediocre mild pattern for the coast. 60s at the end of March isn't anomalous like it is in winter. Keep in mind normals are getting into the upper 50s now.
  3. General rule of thumb is to forecast a slightly more equatorward progression of backdoors, especially given the cold waters and snow cover to the north. This looks like a rather dreary pattern to me with backdoor city from 40N northward and limited torching - which is 70+ at this time of year
  4. 21F at MJX in the NJ Pine Barrens.
  5. 1000' increase = 1.5 degrees of latitude as a rough approximation. For example, Boone, NC at around 3,000ft in the NC mountains has essentially the same climate as central NJ. High Point NJ has a similar climate to coastal central Maine.
  6. The best two winters of my life, certainly. 72" here in 09-10 with a 48" February as well. 2010-11 had 57.7" with snow cover from Dec 26th-Feb 17th, 54 consecutive days. In the early-mid 2000s I marveled at how well we were doing in December, and wondered if we'd ever have good Marches. Now, the opposite is true. Since 2013, March has featured a propensity for cold/snow and December's furnaced. In 2015, I had snow cover through March 10th, with 17" for the entire month. This month I had about 10" with 10 consecutive days of snow cover and 7 nights 20F or colder. I personally much prefer the front-loaded winters like 2010-11 which trail off in mid February, rather than winter just initiating in mid February. Snow preservation and cold are important factors of "winter enjoyment" for me. Obviously, it tends to be easier to hold snow cover in the low sun angle months, which we've been wasting for several years now. To have 10 days of snow pack this month with a sun angle equivalent to late September is extremely impressive.
  7. Northwestern areas and those N of NYC may receive a couple more inches (e.g., your area). I'm less optimistic for the city southward, but it's possible, depending upon the evolution of the next jet extension and the resultant NPAC configuration. My 30 year running average is up to an impressive 31.2" (not including this year yet). 1980-2010 average of 28.9". The past 17 years have been excellent insofar as boosting averages in the I-95 corridor NJ-BOS. PHL southwestward hasn't done as well though; the steep gradient has generally been around 40N. Same story this winter. Near to above normal from CNJ northward and much below normal south of 40N.
  8. Thank you - much appreciated guys. Looking forward to the next outlook season already.
  9. Thank you very much for the kind words guys. Zucker - I agree. I did expect that the SSW effects would dissipate rather rapidly but it was still disappointing. As you know, probabilities are such that simply because we have experienced a stretch of +NAO doesn't increase the odds that next winter will be -NAO (independent / dissociated events). I am conflicted right now about next winter but it is very early. Additionally, if I say too much, I would divulge some of my methodology.
  10. This year's verification (post 10):
  11. 26.9". Not bad considering we furnaced. Need a couple more for average here.
  12. VERIFICATION: FORECASTED: ACTUAL: DJF 500mb pattern: DJF Temperature anomalies: DJF Precipitation departures: Central Park DJF temperature departure: +4.1 Most of the tri-state area finished between +3.5 and +4.2 for temperature departures. Snowfall: 30.2″ Snowfall Forecast versus actual totals: Burlington, VT: 90-100” 91” Boston: 40-45” 45.8” New York City: 21-26” 30.2” Philadelphia: 13-18” 15” Baltimore: 10-15” 2.9” Washington DC: 9-14” 3.4” Richmond, VA: 5-10” 7.1” Raleigh, NC: 0-5” 0.8” Atlanta, GA: <2” T Houston, TX: <1” 0 Chicago, IL: 45-50” 26.1” Denver, CO: 60-65” 19.3” Seattle, WA: 5-10” 11.2” VERIFICATION DISCUSSION: Based upon the forecast maps from late November, the z500 pattern quite closely paralleled the outlook expectations. Troughiness preferentially favored the NW United States while concurrently, ridging predominated the Eastern US. Occasional poleward ridging near Alaska/Dateline permitted periodic cold blasts into the United States, but for the most part, the Pacific remained unfavorable. Additionally, the NAO was strongly positive as anticipated, with a largely inauspicious AO regime as well (both were positive). In terms of the sensible weather, December verified as the coldest month of the winter with slightly warmer than normal temperatures in the East as forecasted, with January and February featuring well above normal temperatures. Dryness dominated the South and East while a wetter than normal preferentially favored the West and northern tier. Snowfall was very close to reality, with below to well below normal snowfall from 40N southward, and near or above normal snowfall from NYC northward. The slight flaw here was that the above normal snowfall extended a bit further south than expected into portions of the NYC area/Long Island. Furthermore, DCA/BWI area featured even less snowfall than forecast, and Denver into portions of the Mid-west (Chicago) received very little snow relative to normal. Seattle’s totals were close to forecasted, as were totals in the Southeast US and New England. Overall, considering the lead time of the long range forecast and the nature of the record warmth in January and February, the outlook for solidly warmer than normal temperature departures across the vast majority of the United States worked very well in my opinion. Hindsight is 20/20, and certainly I would have gone even warmer, but given some conflicting signals (a few suggestive of cold) last autumn, the magnitude of the forecasted warmth was slightly tempered. Even still, the general ideas and progression verified, and this winter forecast will be considered a success. This will bring the long range success rate up to 80% since initiation of long range summer/winter outlooks in 2006. Overall Winter 2016-17 Grade: A-
  13. VERIFICATION: FORECASTED: ACTUAL: DJF 500mb pattern: DJF Temperature anomalies: DJF Precipitation departures: Central Park DJF temperature departure: +4.1 Most of the tri-state area finished between +3.5 and +4.2 for temperature departures. Snowfall: 30.2″ Snowfall Forecast versus actual totals: Burlington, VT: 90-100” 91” Boston: 40-45” 45.8” New York City: 21-26” 30.2” Philadelphia: 13-18” 15” Baltimore: 10-15” 2.9” Washington DC: 9-14” 3.4” Richmond, VA: 5-10” 7.1” Raleigh, NC: 0-5” 0.8” Atlanta, GA: <2” T Houston, TX: <1” 0 Chicago, IL: 45-50” 26.1” Denver, CO: 60-65” 19.3” Seattle, WA: 5-10” 11.2” VERIFICATION DISCUSSION: Based upon the forecast maps from late November, the z500 pattern quite closely paralleled the outlook expectations. Troughiness preferentially favored the NW United States while concurrently, ridging predominated the Eastern US. Occasional poleward ridging near Alaska/Dateline permitted periodic cold blasts into the United States, but for the most part, the Pacific remained unfavorable. Additionally, the NAO was strongly positive as anticipated, with a largely inauspicious AO regime as well (both were positive). In terms of the sensible weather, December verified as the coldest month of the winter with slightly warmer than normal temperatures in the East as forecasted, with January and February featuring well above normal temperatures. Dryness dominated the South and East while a wetter than normal preferentially favored the West and northern tier. Snowfall was very close to reality, with below to well below normal snowfall from 40N southward, and near or above normal snowfall from NYC northward. The slight flaw here was that the above normal snowfall extended a bit further south than expected into portions of the NYC area/Long Island. Furthermore, DCA/BWI area featured even less snowfall than forecast, and Denver into portions of the Mid-west (Chicago) received very little snow relative to normal. Seattle’s totals were close to forecasted, as were totals in the Southeast US and New England. Overall, considering the lead time of the long range forecast and the nature of the record warmth in January and February, the outlook for solidly warmer than normal temperature departures across the vast majority of the United States worked very well in my opinion. Hindsight is 20/20, and certainly I would have gone even warmer, but given some conflicting signals (a few suggestive of cold) last autumn, the magnitude of the forecasted warmth was slightly tempered. Even still, the general ideas and progression verified, and this winter forecast will be considered a success. This will bring the long range success rate up to 80% since initiation of long range summer/winter outlooks in 2006. Overall Winter 2016-17 Grade: A-
  14. Mean temperature of 35.7F so far this month here. That's a colder mean temp than Dec, Jan, and Feb. Very impressive for the first three weeks of March. -5.4 departure. Will have to monitor some of those stronger surface highs w/ bowling balls cutting underneath. Likely not much for our area, but obviously nothing can be ruled out. The source region is still quite chilly w/ the anomalous cold on our side of the hemisphere. The short wave at D4-5 looks unfavorable for much pcpn further north as it's sheared out; definitely a better shot w/ that one at D7.
  15. Those that ended winter did so without recognizing the large scale alterations which inexorably initiated about 6 weeks ago. Persistence forecasting only succeeds until something significant changes.