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Isotherm

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About Isotherm

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    Veritas Vos Liberabit
  • Birthday 09/24/1990

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    http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

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    Colts Neck, NJ

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  1. Right -- it's not at all unusual. Here is the progression for my top two analogs -- about +0.5 June, and much warmer July/Aug:
  2. 1. The definition of, "residual" is remaining; it's not a qualifier for the magnitude of the blocking that was anticipated. There can be residual, strong blocking. 2. Ok. Possibly, but without meteorological reasoning it is difficult to entertain your conclusion and have a higher level discourse. 3. Yes. I realize this. My forecast was +1 June.
  3. Extracted from my summer outlook; just as an FYI for anyone who thinks the present pattern is antithetical to some forecasters' expectations: The coolest of the three meteorological summer months relative to normal should be June...Residual high latitude blocking may persist for much of June, permitting more frequent trough amplification events in the northern tier of the United States." So, the overall hot summer idea is not in jeopardy with the present pattern. The spasmodic cool-shots in June were expected from my standpoint.
  4. 43. Pretty impressive for early June.
  5. The background state is certainly a not insignificant factor inculcated in the overall long range forecast equation, from my standpoint.
  6. The SSTA profile similarities b/t present [2019] and late May 2002 are quite striking. The degree of structural symmetry is impressive, on a hemispheric and even global scale.
  7. Thanks, Roger, and I concur, [while the language was qualified somewhat due to long range precautions] I saw some distinct signals for potential major heat. Good luck with your forecast as well.
  8. I posted my summer outlook here for anyone interested:
  9. Summer outlook can be found here: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/ ***Scroll down for temperature/pcpn departure forecast details and maps, as well as 90F day forecast. NJ map of total snowfall for the 2018-19 winter: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/nj-snowfall Comments and/or inquiries are appreciated.
  10. Isotherm is brilliant but he has been wrong on almost everything this year It's an observation, not a forecast. I'm merely analyzing what could happen, and delineating possibilities. I said what needs to occur in order for the pattern to improve, not that I necessarily believed it would definitively occur. There are multiple ways this can evolve, one of which is a continuation of blocking-fail.
  11. Isotherm

    My Winter Outlook 2018-19

    Can you provide a link to your nationwide winter forecast, with departures forecasted Dec, Jan, Feb? I don't recall seeing your formal winter forecast for the country.
  12. Isotherm

    February 2019 Discussion I

    Ray, while that is effectively my prepared post-mortem, I do think there's still a chance the last few weeks of winter produce a good pattern, but that will be contingent upon scouring out the -AAM in the sub-tropics [finally erasing the sub-tropical ridges], to allow the jet to cut underneath in the Atlantic, so a bonafide NAO develops. We should see some PNA improvements in the last week of this month.
  13. Isotherm

    My Winter Outlook 2018-19

    Thanks, Nate. I did see some warning signs in the autumn, but November reversed toward a more high AAM/Nino-esque forcing state, coupled w/ NAO ignition, which tended to countermand my earlier thoughts. Overall, November's ephemeral flux of Nino-esque conditions proved to be a bit of a pretense, and a Nina-esque type forcing regime entered the picture in December. Ray, was referring to 2001-02 and 1994-95, the only two years since the late 1970s in which we had a +QBO at the 30mb level and -QBO at the 50mb level. It's something, with the benefit of hindsight, that I did not believe would be deleterious pre-season, but I think it has; of course, among other factors as well, like the basin-wide Nino, the off-equator warmth in the west Pacific enhancing poor MJO phases, the SSW as well, etc. Fortunately, my last winter miss was a long time ago [early part of the decade] and hopefully the next miss won't occur for a long time. Significant lessons derived this year.
  14. The atmosphere is behaving much more akin to neutral ENSO rather than El Nino this winter, so I would discard the z500 composites for MJO/Ninos evincing the favorability in the p7-8 transition. However, once we're into the core of phase 8 in a couple of days, with strengthening near 8/1 threshold, that effect will manifest with the typical circa 7 day lag. So I expect guidance will finally trend more favorable with the PNA ridging after about February 22nd or so. The MJO wave is more slow-moving and amplified than usual as well, so the effects are enhanced as far as Western trough. Typical MJO progression is faster, but this has been the winter of interference from other tropical waves. Like I said, that post wasn't a total post mortem, and hopefully it will become abstract, especially for you all in the MA who are nearing normal already.
  15. Frd - my full post is over on my winter outlook thread on the main board here as well, if anyone is interested. Re: those specific years - yes, extremely rare permutation. The only two years like this one as far the QBO dichotomy since the late 70s were: 1994-95, and 2001-02. Both of which were quite appalling snowfall wise. Obviously, no year is like, but those similarities in Pacific systemic issues and failed propagation / high magnitude tropospheric blocking were there. Again, there's a chance for a late-game save, but enough has happened to warrant a re-analysis of the widespread miscalculations, in my view, by everyone. The Pacific was the principal problem (AO will finished slightly negative, NAO probably near neutral/slightly pos); stronger blocking could have countervailed. Reasons are expounded in my post on the main board thread.
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