Isotherm

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About Isotherm

  • Birthday 09/24/1990

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    http://www.lightinthestorm.com/

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  1. https://www.lightinthestorm.com/ See also, 2019-20 NJ Snowfall Totals: https://www.lightinthestorm.com/nj-snowfall
  2. Verification. Below pasted from website. Brief analysis as time is limited. https://www.lightinthestorm.com/ Brief Analysis: Snowfall departures across the CONUS were generally congruous with expectations spatially – with the storm track favoring the Rockies, Upper Mid-west, and Northern New England for near or above normal snowfall. Snowfall forecast for Mid-Atlantic was accurate with well below average totals. NYC-BOS snowfall totals were forecasted to be below normal, with the reality featuring well below average totals. Overall snowfall forecast for the CONUS = A- Temperature wise, departures were well above normal across the East, versus a forecast for solidly above normal. The Southeast US and SW US were well forecast. The Plains/NW US were warmer than forecast. Overall temperature forecast for the CONUS = C/C- Local NYC region temperature forecast = C/C- Local NYC snowfall forecast = B/B- As to the pattern: forecast was +NAO, +EPO, -PNA, and near neutral AO. The only flaw in the pattern outlook was a more positive AO than expected for the second half of the winter, otherwise the z500 coincided very well with expectations. Overall pattern, 500mb forecast for the NHEM = A- Thus, the overall winter 2019-20 outlook yields a grade of: B-/B. This was a hit, and a very good forecast overall, with the primary flaw being the magnitude of the warmth, thus lowering the final grade .
  3. Indeed. It would be interesting to know the location of various cases. Southern Brazil has Cfa/sub-tropical climate, thus temperatures may be cooling there with the onset of S Hem autumn.
  4. Yes. It will be non-zero, but significantly less, as I wrote in the article. Warmth/humidity does not induce total dissipation of viruses. As written in article: Since viral inactivation increases as sun angle, temperature, and humidity all increase, one should anticipate SARS-CoV-2 cases to decrease significantly in the period from approximately mid-May through summer in the United States. Next autumn, it is probable if not likely that SARS-CoV-2 will begin to gradually increase again.
  5. Viral transmission and infectivity typically alter as a function of temperature, humidity, and sunlight. I published an article to that effect days ago, with proposal for installation of humidification systems; I have been in conversation with NJ Governor regarding this proposal and concomitant cost savings potential. There was a pilot study that demonstrated 31% reduction of influenza morbidity rates via humidification of classroom versus control classroom. Coronaviruses have many similar signatures in terms of how they react to alterations in temp/humidity. They are positive sense RNA viruses, enveloped, and their coats deform/degrade significantly in > 45% relative humidity levels [also, effects on aerosolization / particle residence]. Air temperatures > 68F also ameliorate. Hence, morbidity rates are generally lower equatorward. The true case fatality rate in the USA is likely circa 0.7-1.0%. There are therapeutics/modalities available for treatment/prevention. If you're interested, my article: https://medium.com/@tomstavola/effect-of-temperature-humidity-and-sunlight-on-sars-cov-2-and-a-proposal-for-installation-of-602211a982b2
  6. Yes, my snowfall ranges, while indicating well below normal snowfall for NYC, were not sufficiently low. The ranges will be close for the Mid-Atlantic with a lower end of 5". That said, as I posted the below in the NY forum last week, I am very happy with the snowfall anomaly distribution versus reality nationwide, i.e., the anomalies and demarcation lines between above and below. I will do a full verification of my winter outlook later in March. The pattern, indices, and overall temps went very well, but the largest issue was I didn't go nearly warm enough magnitude wise. So that will dent the overall grade. Nonetheless, this winter was back on track of hits for me, following last winter's disaster. Unfortunately, it appears the end of Feb/early March window of opportunity will not be working out for most of the Northeast. Maybe there is one more window prior to the end of the season.
  7. Some snowfall statistics for my location [partially interpolated with New Brunswick, pre-2000]. Even though this winter and last winter have been quite snowless, the decadal running and 30-year running snowfall averages are very good for Monmouth County. Current 30-year running average [1988/89-2018-19]: 31.2" If this winter were to end today snowfall wise, the 1989/90-2019-20 30 year normal would be 31.0" here, a significant increase from 1980-2010, which was 28.9". My decadal 2010-present snowfall average is 38.7" [the highest of any decade since 1950]. If this winter were to end today, the new 2010-2020 decadal average would be 35.4", which would still be higher than 2000-2010's of 33.8" and the 1960s of 34.1". Conclusion: while the past two winters made a decent dent, the overall decadal and 30-year running snowfall average locally is still the best its been since likely the early 1900s.
  8. Thanks, all, for the comments - much appreciated. Hopefully, we can secure one event before the end of the season. We will have a brief window before the base state resumes. On the discussion of the performance of the seasonal models from last autumn: from my perspective, the key take-away there is not necessarily to buy into the guidance verbatim or all the time, but that they are invaluable tools to be employed in the total picture. The seasonal models, by contrast [including the ECMWF] performed rather poorly in the 2018-19 pre-season forecast. But there were certain physical mechanisms this year that supported the seasonal models prognostications. So, I think it's a matter of stepping back and comparing the seasonal guidance to observations, and posing the inquiry: does this make sense? From last autumn, the seasonal model projections made a lot of sense meteorologically. The "trick" of course is deciphering when the models will perform well / are on the correct path, and when they are not.
  9. This winter has continued the theme of "stagnancy" - that is, absent novel forcing mechanisms, we maintain a similar set of indicators, and thus, z500 regimes tend to repeat. For example, the SSTA profile in the Atlantic has been quite similar since 2017, which has been reinforcing the humid/warm summer signal in the East. This winter featured many of the same indicators as 2018-19, and as a result, the mean storm track followed suit. These snowfall departures with respect to normal have a base period of 2008-2018, but still impart the general picture of snowfall anomalies to date [h/t Eric Snodgrass]. Underneath that image is my snowfall anomaly outlook for this winter. The season is not over yet, but I'm quite content to see the anomalies are highly congruous with my pre-season expectations. Upper-Mid-west and northern Maine jackpots.
  10. That is correct. Warmer than normal and below average snowfall. Here were the snowfall ranges from my outlook for the Mid-Atlantic region: Baltimore, MD: 7-15” Washington DC: 5-13” Richmond, VA: 3-11” It appears we may struggle to reach the low-end of my ranges for those locations. I do think there is a window for one event near the beginning of March +/- a few days.
  11. As delineated hitherto, I do not see any reason to abandon the window of opportunity between February 25th-early March. It will certainly provide the most propitious z500 structure of the entire meteorological winter to date [a low standard]; now, that does not necessarily imply any guarantees re snowfall, merely that probabilities will be quite a bit higher than previously. The high frequency intraseasonal forcing should disintegrate east of the dateline, and reorganize in the Eastern Hemisphere. Momentum in the N-HEM inauspicious as well as tropospheric receptivity to blocking still low, so I would not anticipate a negative NAM/NAO, however, the PNA/EPO domains should alter/ameliorate via the Pacific forcing for an ephemeral window.
  12. Utilizing NOAA data, I did a couple of quick calculations. NYC-Central Park's mean snowfall for 1990-2020 is 30.1", and their median snowfall is about 27". The median, as you know, is a very indicative number, as it represents the relative frequency of above versus below normal snowfall winters. So, the 27" is fairly good, given the proximity to the mean, suggesting that there's an almost equal split of snowier than normal versus less snow than normal winters in NYC (I would guess probably 45% snowier than normal / 55% less snow than normal). The farther south one heads, the worse the median. For example, Washington DC sees much more below normal snowfall winters than above normal, so their mean snowfall is arguably inflated by a relatively small number of major winters. Conversely, I would guess Boston's median is almost identical to their mean.
  13. One essential reason is that the mean climatological pattern favors a +AO and +NAO. It's a physical, meteorological fact that it is more difficult to induce and maintain, for protracted duration, a -AO/-NAO. The prevailing polar jet flow is westerly, so the +NAO/AO is effectively an enhancement of the the prevailing, "normal" regime. A -AO/-NAO is an interruption of the mean flow. The frequency of positive AO/NAO winters is higher, actually by quite a bit, when one utilizes a large sample size. There are decadal predilections wherein a -NAO/AO can dominate -- see the late 1950s through the early 1970s, but over the long term, the frequency of +AO/NAO is higher. I just did a rough calculation, and circa 36% of winters since 1950 have been -NAO mean for DJF. So, that's a majority +NAO by a statistically significant margin. I posted this chart the other day, but it's worth a re-post now, as one bit of good news derived from this persistent +AO/NAO regime is that Arctic Sea Ice Extent has officially touched the 2000-2010 mean line -- quite impressive given how poorly we were faring sea ice wise.
  14. Thanks, Tim. I am happy re the outlook; and it would certainly be nice to see an areawide event prior to the end of the season. I still do believe there will be amelioration near the end of February into March, from hostile to more mediocre. I don't see any indications of a great pattern at this juncture, but all we would need is something serviceable to produce a plowable event in Feb 25-Mar 10, which is still favorable climatology. Post Mar 10 is when probabilities begin decreasing expeditiously.
  15. For once, it appears the surface high pressure ridge crests with auspicious timing for near ideal/ideal radiational cooling Friday night. There may finally be a hard freeze in the single digits and teens.