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  1. Initially. But that should press east somewhat. Could see a couple days with modest negative departures near the end of the month.
  2. That has trended more robust w/ every cycle on the EPS. Latest run indicates -4 SD. If that's close to correct, there certainly will be a fairly impressive cool pool expansion across North America. I think it's legitimate in that we'll end up with a normal to below normal period June 26-Jul 2 or so.
  3. Tomorrow looks underwhelming for the coast. Classic situation in which convection gradually weakens as it nears the ocean. I wouldn't get my hopes up for Long Island, NYC, S CT, and the NJ coast. Best potential will be EPA and WNJ.
  4. Nothing unexpected thus far. We have an ephemeral pulse of heat circa Father's day, followed by a cool down, another warm pulse around the 23rd, and then subsequently a very significant pool of cold envelops Canada through the end of June. Ecmwf ensembles are quite impressive with much of the NA continent near or cooler than normal for the last week of June. I think it will be warmer in the South, but the AK ridging will force the suppression of the mean jet. Could be an active convective pattern for us with the steep latitudinal height gradient. No protracted heat through Jul 1 looks good. I thought July would be the warmest month, so we will see how the pattern evolves. Should see lower heights retrograde off the west coast eventually.
  5. Heat wave here: Sun - 91.4/63.4, Mon - 92/65.6, Tues - 94.1/67.4 Dew points kept overnights unimpressive in terms of warmth. Today was the most impressive day for high temps in rural New Jersey. 95F+ highs are difficult to achieve at our latitude away from the urban zones.
  6. 65.3F here this morning after 91.4F yesterday. We'll see what today brings - thus far, it's a low impact heat wave in suburban/rural NJ. It's much more difficult to pump those numbers into the widespread 94-95F territory for suburbia than it is the airports, but today might be able to do it. High launching pads.
  7. 85.6 after 60 low.
  8. 81/45 here. I have virtually 0 cooling degree days for June thus far because the chilly nights have been countervailing the afternoon highs. This was my 5th morning in the 40s in June; not bad at a time average lows are mid-upper 50s.
  9. Looks like three consecutive days with highs in the upper 50s on the 12z Euro for this week -- Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday -- overcast and upper 50s. That's pretty impressive.
  10. Three consecutive nights in the 40s; not bad for June. 44.8F this morning here.
  11. Thanks grit! Appreciate it.
  12. 60/54 yesterday and 58/54 today. Very cool air for nearly June; feels more like early April. -1.9 for May here, after a +4.2 April, and -2.4 March. Near normal meteorological spring temps, rainfall well above normal. 8.03" for May thus far (more tomorrow).
  13. Thanks!
  14. Meteorological spring (Mar-Apr-May) is exactly 0.0 for me through today. April's anomalous positive departure equaled March/May combined negative. So spring overall has been near normal temp wise and very wet in Monmouth County. Rainfall of 6.91", 4.7", and 7.3" for March, April, and May respectively, not inclusive of tomorrow/Tuesday rain of course.
  15. Somewhat truncated this year. Comments and/or questions are welcome: http://www.lightinthestorm.com/