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About SBUWX23

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    Smithtown, NY
  1. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    you will be dissapointed if you think the cold air is going to lock in with this system. It is going to warm up very fast overnight when the low level jet starts to crank. The surface high is still just offshore, and once it moves further east the southerly flow will help to warm things up.
  2. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    agree completely. looks like the coast may be in the 40s after 06z
  3. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    despite notions NAM/GFS is colder there still is only about a 3-6 hour window for snow after midnight tomorrow. even in the weaker GFS, its still rain at SWF per BUFKIT. I urge everyone to not run with snowmaps. This situation is troubling with the strong WAA aloft even inland somewhat
  4. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    and at the same light warm advection tends to warm things quicker when there is nothing to lock i nthe cold
  5. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    925 mb temperatures are warmer than 850.
  6. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    ice in this pattern? what is locking in the cold at the surface?
  7. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    not sure what you are talking about. the trend has been warmer even in the euro. this is a difficult pattern to keep things all snow even by you. Looking at snowmaps from these models will burn you
  8. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    there is a decent dry punch behind that initial surge tomorrow evening. Thats going to be trouble for any snow before 06z after the dry punch.
  9. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    Despite the ggem colder solution, I am having trouble buying it with the shortwave looking like this at H5. Typically you dont get that type of snow this far south when the shortwave is oriented like this that far north
  10. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    this is because of a screaming low level jet
  11. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    completely agree. Good to see you at this board as well.
  12. Dec 11-12 Storm Threat

    I know its not what people want to hear, but I think the GFS/NAM solutions should not be thrown out for the Sunday night/Monday system.
  13. 1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II

    Yeah the wave of low pressure is very weak. The models are keying in on the overrunning which looks pretty good back to the Triangle.
  14. 1/28 - 1/30 Storm Thread II

    This is likely why many SREF members have higher totals. The SREF do use a diagnosing rime factor or snow density factor.
  15. December 14-15 Winter Storm Part Two

    No it will not, first its still saturated up to -20C. A lesson in microphysics will tell you snow grows from temperatures as warm as -5C (needles). While not dendrites, still can have crystalization. Second, it is completely saturated below this so there will still be precipitation, just the depth of the cloud will not be as high.