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Windspeed

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  1. Windspeed
  2. Windspeed
  3. Windspeed
    Wow that super cell between Seymour and Olney, TX is massive, and has already produced multiple simultaneous TOGs.
  4. Windspeed
    Right. But from a climatological and historical perspective, the SSTs of the northern gulf shelf by Sept-Oct have generally cooled below what is required to support a rapidly deepening Cat 5. Sure, the central, southern GOM and Bay of Campeche would continue supporting Cat 5 intensity through October, but those storms tend to weaken drastically if steered into the N. GOM. Major hurricane Opal being a prime example. October of 2018 hopefully remains anomalous in its mutliple contributing factors that lead to Michael, as generally multiple cold fronts have swept through the northern gulf by mid-to-late September and subsequent dry continental air plus radiational cooling has brought down mean heat content by 3-4°C. Again, it's one thing to consider a rare Category 5 threat in July, August, perhaps still even September, but October? Michael is hopefully the rarest of generational occurrences.
  5. Windspeed
    Would be surprised if it isn't producing.
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    The complex of supercells west of Fayetteville near Oklahoma/Arkansas line are moving towards the Siloam Springs area. There are two strong velocity couplets moving in tandem to the NNE.
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    Reading back through this thread, I was dead wrong in one point while trying to discredit preconceptons or misconceptions about landfalling Cat 5s along the N. GOM coast, including rapid intensification over its shallow shelf. I never once imagined that scenario being possible in the month of October. Then having that play out approximately one year later? Crazy!
  9. Windspeed
    Dr. Phil Klotzbach @ CSU has introduced the following website to house and track seasonal forecasts from private and public entities: http://seasonalhurricanepredictions.bsc.es/
  10. Windspeed
    Blue skies past hour after several hours of showers. Temperatures have responded accordingly, up to 74° from 63° earlier, and it actually feels humid, which may aid in destabilization for strong cells by the time the boundary rolls through KTRI.
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    Atlanta's population is much larger than that half-a-million figure but their census only includes the Atlanta "metro proper" for its total. However, Fulton Co., which includes a big chunk of Atlanta's residential suburbs has over 1.2 million people alone. Population totals can be confusing with respect to different cities and their zoning. For example, Houston is the exact opposite of Atlanta. Everything inside the Sam Houston Beltway is included in Houston's metro population. Atlanta would be much larger if it incorporated a larger portion of its urban region. Make no mistake though, several million live inside the I-285 loop and around 3-4 million in close proximity to it within the greater Atlanta urban region.
  12. Windspeed
    Cyclone Idai: Death toll rises to 750 as Mozambique city of Beira begins long road to recovery.
  13. Windspeed
    Veronica's core is slowing down and will eventually begin a SW to WSW motion in close proximity to the Australian coast before or just after landfall. Though cloudtops have cooled and ADT increased to 115 kts over night, the eye has become rather ragged in the last several hours. With a slow motion and bend in track in close proximity to coast, should a landfall occur, it may take a while. This region of Australian coast is sparsely populated. Roebourne is the only major township beyond several coastal getaways and they're roughly a few thousand people combined. This area no stranger to cyclones however. They should be prepared.
  14. Windspeed
    Trevor's landfall is imminent. JTWC has the intensity around 105 kts. ADT still supports that. Looks like a solid Cat 3 landfall.
  15. Windspeed
    Despite low shear, Veronica can't seem to intensify. JTWC actually downgraded. Unsure of dry air intrusion or core alignment. Microwave shows multiple concentric bands. Probably all downhill from here as far as intensity. Likewise, Trevor seems to be struggling with 700-600mb southwesterly shear, tilting the MLC northeast of the LLC. Despite -85°C intense convective cloudstops, it's running out of time. Doesn't look like either cyclone will come anywhere close to the 920s millibars in pressure despite days of unanimous modeling support to the contrary. Looks like JTWC's earlier intensity forecasts are also going to bust hard on both systems. But again, Cat 5s are extremely difficult to forecast even with days of good modeling consensus.
  16. Windspeed
    Severe cyclone Veronica looks to have completed an ERC and is beginning to clear out the cloud canopy over its eye. A run at Cat 5, if it's going to happen, should be commencing in short order. Atmospheric conditions including strong divergence aloft and 30°C SSTs are supportive for such run before increasing shear becomes an issue near landfall. Hopefully that shear will weaken Veronica prior to landfall, though we're more hopeful it will come ashore away from any populated communities.
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    Per ADT, Veronica is the equivalent of a Category 4 hurricane now. JTWC forecast 140 kts. Aus Met is also forecasting a 5 on their scale. Should make landfall on late Saturday or Sunday.
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    Florence is retired.
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    Veronica has undergone RI over night. Fairly impressive 24 hour intensification.
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    Australia now has two intensifying cyclones. Positioned off the NW coast is Veronica, which is quickly consolidating a core and looks to become an intense cyclone in the near term. Likewise, Trevor, which is emerging over the Gulf of Carpentaria is quickly reorganizing after crossing the Cape York Peninsula. Both cyclones are unanimously modeled to become severe cyclones and there is even the possibility of an extremely rare occurrence of two Category 5s raging simultaneously near to the Australian coastline at once.
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    RE: Idai https://media.ifrc.org/ifrc/press-release/mozambique-cyclone-90-per-cent-beira-surrounds-damaged-destroyed/ https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47609676]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-47609676 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-03-18/mozambique-flood-death-toll-may-be-more-than-1-000-zitamar-says
  22. Windspeed
    Pretty unanimous global modeling on a sub 930 mb tropical cyclone traversing the Gulf of Carpentaria late week. Looks like double landfalls for Cyclone Trevor in Australia. The initial being eastern Cape York Peninsula coast late on Tuesday. Then reintensification transitioning into rapid intensification as the severe cyclone turns poleward in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
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    Oh man this one hurt. I mean at least we have a good basketball team. Great even from a historical perspective of Tennessee Men's basketball. But ugh....damn.
  24. Windspeed
    This may be a nonstory to you, but the situation is still unfolding. No, it's not like they're just sitting in their homes waiting to drown. But people may be displaced and surged/flooded urban areas, much more rural, are difficult to reach with roads and bridges impassable. The Yatumbe River is currently expanding out across its flood plain with heavy rains continuing to fall over its interior tributaries. What is modeled, an additional 500mm/20 inches on top of what has already fallen, possible through Wednesday. News doesn't exactly flow out to Western media from this part of the world at a rapid pace like it does elsewhere. It's going to take days to weeks for resources to get out all that is happening there to verify what has occurred from a meteorological perspective; and again, a large fraction of those 500k people are currently displaced within ongoing inclement weather, which isn't exactly helping the spread of personal testimony and experiences without anyone able to reach them on the ground and report it. I'm not going to stop posting or apologize for posting about this event regardless if it seems like I am being too dramatic.
  25. Windspeed
    Their comms infrastructure isn't like that found in the US. And there have been limited resources on the ground relaying out the imagery we are just now seeing above. It was a major hit on a populated area with extreme rainfall totals still accumulating. What's not to be dramatic about? There is very real possibility of significant loss of life and a humanitarian crisis unfolding in the coming weeks/months.
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