Windspeed

The para is interesting in that it is building heights across the northern maritimes into a Canadian block by Sept 5th. That is a classic long-tracker pattern that typically results in repeating WATL landfalls. Also develops an Azores cutoff that breaks down 700 hPa flow off NW Africa and the MDR moistens with precipitable water substantially as we approach peak. This will have to be watched for pattern trends in coming runs as that would suggest a busy September.

The big three globals have been struggling with TCG since Dorian. No idea. A lack of data or some other nonsense. It is a known issue.

For those of us that enjoy recreational drugs...

Everything will be okay. All you need to do is just listen to Buckethead...

Lol Mike. You're afraid to use Josh's name? Dude has earned it.

I do not believe your eggdrop soup was hot enough to burn your tongue. Did you measure it with a thermometer? We need visual data of the thermometer or it didn't happen.

Hospitalized for alcohol poisoning.

Today I learned about hub clouds. Hub clouds... Hub clouds.............

Yes I am being narcissistic. Piss off.

If ever there was a case in point, this is it. 5+ days out you might peek at the operationals for patterns, precip, derived winds, feature locations, and especially entertainment purposes, but for estimates on TCs and their storm relative potential, you go with the different ensemble packages all night and day long. I don't mind beating that dead horse into a smear until frequent posters get it.

Possible Atlantic MDR development next week being modeled in several ensemble camps.

Anyone want to make a call on landfall pressure? I'm going with 934 mb. An additional 30 mb pressure drop by tonight does not seem unreasonable to me considering the current trends and the cyclone's structure and appearance.

NHC may have to downgrade based on that last pass.

It's struggling. A new convective mass is going up but it looks like the core got tilted and succumbed to dry air in the mid-levels earlier due to the persistent ongoing SSW mid-level flow. Is Marco is still a hurricane? Debatable. Probably still close. Need recon.

The really nice convective burst and westward expansion earlier might be beginning to wane. Still very strong SSW flow undercutting the MLC. Pulsing waxing and waning upshear might be the order of the day.

[mention=442]Floydbuster[/mention] You slacker! [emoji16]

Marco's problem remains mid-to-upper level SSW flow along forecast track. Plenty of stable Theta-E that will continuously be advecting into Marco's small vortex. It may not be powerful enough to decapitate the MLC from the LLC. Marco may be able to temporarily battle with reoccurring mesos that rotate upshear around the main circulation. But the flow is strong enough to keep Marco's intensity in check and prevent convective expansion around the western CDO. This is not terribly unlike Nate in 2017. Though Nate had a larger circulation to tap heat flux. Marco might gain hurricane intensity briefly depending on when recon is in there to find supportive obs. But I'd imagine it will struggle at borderline upper TS/Cat 1 intensity all the way into landfall. Levi Cowan had a great explanation of Marco's struggle within this environment in his video last night.

Good lord that AEW went poof!

@Floydbusterupdate the thread.

Globals are a hot mess right now regardless.

Well it is a large wave with a noticeable mid-level circulation. It appears to have exited slightly more north and will pass through the Cabo Verdes. It also has a very nice mid-level moisture envelope around it. Obviously there is very stable dry air, but well NW of the wave itself. SSTs at that latitude are marginal but as it keeps gaining longitude, they do increase to support genesis. We'll just have to keep an eye on it. It is color-coded orange by the NHC with 40% probs in the 5-day outlook.

000 WTNT44 KNHC 211456 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142020 1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2020 An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew into the depression a few hours ago, and the plane made two center fixes that were about 35 n mi apart, indicating that there are likely multiple low-level swirls rotating around a common center. A well-defined swirl coincident with the second center fix has become apparent in visible satellite imagery, but for now a blend of the aircraft fixes is being used for the initial position until we can be sure the satellite feature is in fact the one and only center. Flight-level and SFMR winds, outside of heavy rainfall, indicate that the maximum winds remain 30 kt. Deep convection is still lacking in organization, with the heaviest activity well to the north near the Cayman Islands and along the Honduras coast. The depression is moving northwestward, or 305/12 kt, along the southwestern periphery of an Atlantic subtropical ridge and toward a deep-layer trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This northwestward motion is expected to persist for the entire 5-day forecast period, with a decrease in forward speed anticipated while the cyclone approaches the Yucatan coast. The track guidance has slowed down a bit during that time, especially the GFS, and the new NHC forecast is therefore a little slower than the previous forecast. After that time, an increase in forward speed is expected, and the NHC forecast lies to the west of the TVCN model consensus, closer to the GFS, ECMWF, and HCCA scenarios. The structure of the depression aside, the environment still appears conducive for strengthening while the system approaches the Yucatan Peninsula. Vertical shear over the depression is currently less than 10 kt and is expected to remain low for the next 36-48 hours, and sea surface temperatures will be around 30 degrees Celsius. Therefore, steady intensification is shown in the official forecast through 36 hours, and the NHC prediction lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope between the HCCA and HWRF solutions just before the center reaches the Yucatan coast. After some weakening while over the Yucatan Peninsula, re-intensification is likely to occur over the central Gulf of Mexico between days 2 and 3 while vertical shear remains relatively low, and the cyclone could become a hurricane during that time, as shown by the HCCA, HWRF, and HMON models. After day 3, southwesterly vertical shear of 30 kt or more is expected to develop over the northwestern Gulf, and the official forecast follows the trend of all the intensity guidance, showing weakening by day 4 as the cyclone approaches the southeastern Texas or southwestern Louisiana coastline. This forecast remains highly uncertain, however, and users are urged to continue monitoring changes to this forecast over the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds over portions of the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras, including the Bay Islands, are expected to diminish today. 2. Tropical Depression Fourteen is expected to strengthen over the northwestern Caribbean Sea through Saturday, and it is expected to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Saturday. A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are in effect for portions of that region. 3. The system is expected to move into the south-central Gulf of Mexico as a tropical storm on Sunday. Some strengthening is anticipated while it moves northwestward over the central Gulf of Mexico early next week, but it is too soon to know exactly how strong it will get or the location and magnitude of impacts it will produce along the central or northwestern Gulf Coast. Interests in that area should continue monitoring the progress of this system over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/1500Z 16.6N 84.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 22/0000Z 17.4N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 22/1200Z 18.6N 85.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 23/0000Z 20.0N 86.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 23/1200Z 21.5N 88.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 24/0000Z 23.2N 89.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 24/1200Z 25.1N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 25/1200Z 28.7N 94.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1200Z 31.3N 95.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Berg

TD14's low-level vortex is fully exposed right now but very clearly defined on visible. If convection can go up over it this afternoon than strengthening will be in order and this can get named. However, if land-induced convection becomes dominate, there is the possibility of CS collapses and outflow boundaries adversely affecting it. We'll have to see how this evolves, but it definitely still needs work before I would expect Marco in the short-term.