Windspeed

If this does become a TS, score one for the GFS op. The Euro op missed on this pretty hard. Sure, it continuously resolves the disturbance but hasn't even flirted with sub 1000 mb yet. The GFS has been on the feature for days and has had a number of runs at moderate TS strength. If this does develop, it will probably impact the islands. Late term there will be an upper pv that should pull whatever remains into the Bahamas and near Fl / SE coast.

Yeah I was referring to ASCAT this morning. Still, even with respect to that most recent successful pass, the overall circulation still looks rather weak. Obviously directional winds on the N-NW side are going to be stronger due to the folding of the axis and easterlies. If convection can ramp up again this evening, we may have an interesting development. Still expect odds to go up at 2 PM.

Invest 99L east of the Lesser Antilles is looking very suspicious that it is trying to cutoff the wave axis in the low levels. It clearly has cyclonic turning in mid levels evident on visible. Convection keeps pivoting west and wsw of the axis however. If mid level flow can relax just a bit more and the disturbance can sustain or, even better, an MCS develop at the low level cutoff, we may have a a classified storm in the MDR. Perhaps the NHC did not have a great look at the feature this morning. ASCAT missed. But I figure the odds will increase to moderate on the 2PM AST 5-day outlook besides.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Fri Aug 23 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Chantal, located about 765 miles west of the Azores. 1. Surface and radar data indicate that a weak area of low pressure is located just east of the upper Florida Keys and the southeastern coast of the Florida peninsula. This system is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that extends primarily northeast of the center over the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The low is forecast to move near or over the Florida peninsula through tonight, which should limit development during that time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development once the system moves northeastward back over the Atlantic waters on Saturday. A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the low moves from near the coast of east-central Florida to offshore of the southeastern United States coast. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the northwestern Bahamas and southern and central Florida through the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 2. Showers and thunderstorms have increased since yesterday in association with a tropical wave located about 1400 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. Additional slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it moves generally westward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Beven

Westerly windshear has dramatically decreased across the Caribbean and much of the MDR below 20-25° latitude. Additionally there are signs of backing Azores ridging, which should continue to relax easterlies somewhat over the next week. Robust waves and inverted troughs are exiting Africa during this time. Though the globals are reluctant to latch onto anything yet aside from occasional blurps out of the GFS, I expect a shift towards favorable atmospheric conditions and a decrease in subsidence going into early September. Some of these waves should be strong enough to break off the suppressed ITCZ and amp up moisture feed, convergence and lift across the lower central development region. Essentially, aside from obvious climatological cues, I don't expect things to be quiet much longer.

This is nuts.

Posting this in the OBS and medium-long range threads just so everyone notices: 000 NOUS64 KMRX 121054 FTMMRX Message Date: Aug 12 2019 10:56:47 KMRX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR MODIFICATIONS AND WILL BE DOWN THROUGH 8/16/2019. B ET

Posting this in the OBS and medium-long range thread just so everyone notices: 000 NOUS64 KMRX 121054 FTMMRX Message Date: Aug 12 2019 10:56:47 KMRX RADAR IS GOING DOWN FOR MODIFICATIONS AND WILL BE DOWN THROUGH 8/16/2019. B ET

Agree with the increase in storms. Things are quiet and will likely remain that way through late August. OTOH, September and October are shaping up to be very active. ENSO has transitioned to neutral into at least early Winter. Westerly wind shear should be low across the Atlantic MDR. Easterly windshear should become more favorable by late August as the SPH backs north and surface pressures fall. Could be a really interesting setup for the MDR into the Caribbean and not just from a climatological perspective. SSTs/OHC temps and depth throughout the region is running above climo mean and will be conducive for TC development when atmospheric conditions improve.

Lekima is approaching 130 kts or upper Cat 4 per ADT#s the past few hours. This cyclone may even become a Cat 5 on Saffir Simpson scale. Of course a reminder that the agency responsible for that region measures in 10-minute sustained averages, but nonetheless the TC is a beast tha lt may be a Super Typhoon near initial brush / land interaction with Ryukyu Islands, Japan, near to Ishagaki.

TOOL!!!!!!!!

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Wed Jul 31 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. An area of disturbed weather stretching from central and eastern Cuba northward to the central and southeastern Bahamas is forecast to move northwestward tonight and Thursday, and then move northward on across Florida and the northwestern Bahamas on Friday. This system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas and Florida during the next few days. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development over the weekend while the system turns and accelerates northeastward off the southeastern U.S. coast. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A broad low pressure system is producing a large area of cloudiness and shower activity several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for significant development of this disturbance during the next couple of days while it moves westward at about 15 mph across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. However, conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development over the weekend, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. Forecaster Stewart

Yeah the 12z ECMWF has some very strong 400-300 mb southwesterly winds moving in a line from Cuba across the Bahamas and Bermuda in the 5-7 day range. The GFS is more aligned with the Hudson to Nova Scotia trough and better supportive stacked southerly flow. Hence the GFS has a borderline major hurricane rounding the western periphery of backing 580 dm heights versus the ECMWF which is NOT southerly stacked in flow, which just decapitates any tropical entity that would dare move near the SE CONUS / Bahamas.

Disturbance near the Cape Verdes is up to 40% for the 5-Day Outlook. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Tue Jul 30 2019 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward to northwestward during the next several days, producing locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northern Caribbean and the Bahamas. Conditions could become marginally conducive for development late this week when the disturbance moves near Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. 2. A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic, a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. No significant development of this system is expected for the next few days while it moves westward at about 15 mph. Thereafter, upper-level winds are forecast to gradually become more conducive, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart

TS Flossie continues to intensify and will likely also become a major hurricane over the next couple of days.

Erick is cranking away as a major hurricane. Might reach Cat 4, though an ERC may be about to occur in the short term. The system will cross into the CPAC tomorrow and should experience a weakening trend in three to four days due to strong shear and trough interaction near Hawaii. As such, any interaction there should be minimal.

The one very deep wave over interior Africa already has a decent surface low in conjunction to an abundant moisture envelope. The CCKW should still be in place when it emerges into the Atlantic MDR for the first week of August, so we'll have something to watch. However, keep in mind that Azores 500 mb ridging is still kicking in overdrive right now. Though upper level Westerlies have relaxed out of the W. Atl and Caribbean, deep MDR development is still questionable until strong Easterly mid-level flow can relax somewhat. Easterly shear is still a deterrent and it easing will allow SAL to relax, amplifying moisture and convective instability out of the southern ITCZ.

56°F and feels freaking amazing outside right now. Driving home from work I even turned on the heat. Granted, I had the windows down. Negligible humidity, inhaling that crisp fresh Canadian + radiational cooled air. Premature Fall ejaculation perhaps, but it feels glorious!

Though convection reinitiated over night, it's elongated along the northern half of the broader wave axis quite a distance away from the estimated vortex track plot. I'm having a tough time finding an ill-defined center on radar but it may be the isolated cluster of cells to the northwest of Grand Bahama. Curved banding of the stronger complex to the north may be limited to mid level turning even if that feature has taken over. At any rate, the system has a stretched appearance and isn't aligned. I am beating a dead horse.

No need to chastise the OP. This is hopefully a learning curve for future reference. Though the system is classified, that is not the point. The issue wasn't "the call" in so much as the excessive nature of the thread and initial post that started it, regardless of TC development. We all have opinions and ideas to share on any initial area of interest. However, there is a single post by the author in the main seasonal thread that pertains to the disturbance that became TD3. Without any further discussion, much less input from anyone else, decided to begin a storm thread on a non-classified system with language that suggested a potentially dangerous situation unfolding. Now perhaps that could have been the case, and in the future, it most certainly will be the case. We have had times that mere disturbances / invests warranted a serious tone due to practical confidence, modeling and meteorological support. But TD3 was not one of those times. And yes, I realize some systems are missed by the models, but that still isn't the point here. We have a seasonal thread to iron out differences of opinion on each individual invest. We can share all the data from the models and from leading forecasters, many of whom are on social media. If everyone takes responsibility on their posts and participates accordingly, we don't end up having a thread digress into mockery on the subforum. TL;DR version: As a general rule, don't start a storm thread on a system until it is officially classified a tropical cyclone. If discussion in the seasonal thread warrants a storm thread on an invest/disturbance, a single person won't need to make that call. Rest assured many will already be hyping on the disturbance. This isn't a race to see who posts first, neither is it journalism. Nobody gets recognition or an award for being the first. Likewise, don't get your feelings hurt if you are proven wrong. Many of us here have been flat wrong many times about tropical systems, but that does not mean we were irresponsible with our words.

466 WTNT43 KNHC 230232 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032019 1100 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2019 The depression has become less organized this evening. Much of the deep convection seen earlier in the day has dissipated, and the cyclone currently consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with some shower activity. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. The system is moving northwestward at 9 kt, steered by the southwestern periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge. A turn to the north and north-northeast with a notable increase in forward speed is expected on Tuesday as the depression moves in the flow between the subtropical ridge and an approaching deep-layer trough moving across the eastern United States. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and keeps the center of the cyclone offshore of the east coast of Florida. This prediction is near the multi-model consensus TVCN. Significant strengthening of the depression is not expected given its poor initial state and because it is forecast to move into a region of strong southwesterly flow aloft by late Tuesday. In fact, the global and regional models all show the depression opening into a trough within the next 24 hours, with the remnants of the system becoming absorbed within a frontal zone off the southeast U.S. on Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and now shows dissipation occurring sooner, by 36 hours. Direct impacts from the depression are expected to be limited to 1 to 3 inches of rainfall in the Bahamas and along the east coast of Florida. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 26.1N 79.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 28.4N 79.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 31.7N 78.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

At least there was a short-lived attempt earlier by the system to organize. That process has hit a brick wall. Papin mentioned mid level dry air may have been pulled down by cool downdrafts, flooding the boundary layer with low Theta-E, as evidenced by soundings. This has retarded additonal convection until the low level column can remoisten, as some convergence may be resumed once low level easterly flow into convection over the penninsula subsides. The weak low level vortex assisted by the temporary banded convection earlier this afternoon is already showing signs of elongation and stretching lattitudinally without support of sustained additional convection to keep it tight / well-defined. Our TD may open back up into the wave axis as this process amplifies / shear increases tomorrow. Simply put, this system is on life support; without sustained convection, TD3 will dissipate faster than anticipated.