Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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lol @ the long-range GFS... [emoji849]
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Pretty much anyone hitting up the tropical forum today...
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Looks like the MJO will transition to a brief suppressive regime next week as an unfavorable CCKW swings across the N. Atlantic Basin. However, that is followed by another enhancing CCKW leading into October. Therefore, things could get quiet briefly following Teddy and the potential GOM system followed by another uptick towards the end of the month. Of course it is important to remember that positive (red) MJO regimes are not as unfavorable during peak weeks as TCG can still occur in the Caribbean, GOM and MDR as overall surface pressures tend to have decreased versus mid-Summer months. Pockets of favorable upper 200 hPa vorticity can still be obtained over random areas, especially with lacking EPAC TC activity. In addition, the MDR has tended to moisten somewhat with a backdown in pressure heights and 700 hPa easterlies. So we could still see something pop up east of the Antilles as well.
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A low pressure system over the far eastern Atlantic, 99L, is transitioning more warm core with time. It would of course be fitting for 2020 if a Subtropical Storm grabs the last seasonal name prior to the Greek alphabet. lol... Perhaps 90L can get its act together in short order today and snatch the name away. The race is on...
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ACE isn't the only standard though. People who only consider it to be are foolish. Landfalls are critical data. Cost is important data. Number of storms are critical data. However, ACE shouldn't be done away with as it is an important climatological tool for measuring and comparing basins. Also, it's a great data filter for finding the most active seasons. It's no coincidence that seasons with the highest ACE had numerous powerful TCs beyond just having a high total number of TCs. You also usually find some real long-tracking beasts as well.
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Well we should have some recon flights during peak since it will eventually be a land threat (Bermuda or possibly NE/NS, etc). You're probably meaning on the ground in situ though. I bet you had no love for Lorenzo. [emoji17]
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Teddy has a shot at Cat 5. It'll be moving over 29°C SSTs tomorrow within a divergent environment. Definitely going to be a Category 4 and most likely a high end one during its life cycle.
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ACE is now skyrocketing. We should be over 100 sometime next week.
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Hrmm...
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You got something better? That's the rub. Even the best model guidance is sometimes difficult in its usefulness. That's where good old fashioned synoptic-scale forecasting helps. And that can still be off. There's a reason those folks at the NHC are the cream of the crop. Yet they're still not perfect. Neither is the best modeling based on the most powerful super CPU clusters. Hopefully you can just afford some patience and let it play out / unfold.
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ECMWF ensemble consensus is still the best for tracking, period. Sure, they still miss. But there is a reason we still chew nails awaiting their rums.
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If that run were to verify, the hypothetical Caribbean/EGOM system would've been Teddy. The GFS does a weird monsoonal split and breaks off the upper axis first that becomes Sally. It then allows the southwestern extension to close off into Teddy and it gets captured by strong ridging / easterly flow. Sally merges with CATL troughing. Teddy drives into the CONUS. Meh...looks gimmicky and likely to not model that way in future op runs with any consistency.
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Four consecutive ENS runs with overwhelming support for a low latitude CV hurricane next week. Paulette and Rene both recurve. Paulette feels the WAR somewhat and recurves late. That may need to be watched for Bermuda. At any rate, the WAR is modeled with good ensemble support following exit and lift of the ECONUS shortwave. If the next AEW is as organized as modeled, it's going to have a shot at running the entirety of the MDR without a TUTT in place. There might be some backside upper influences of a stronger Paulette in the mid-range. However, with an EATL cutoff, most downstream upper 200 hPa flow would likely divert eastward. Simply put, next week may very well be prime time for a legitimate long-tracking major hurricane if it's going to be a reality this season. Additionally, the WPAC is entering a period of quiescence. Combining both quiet WPAC and EPAC basins, the N. Atlantic's upper tropospheric setup for the next 2-3 weeks likely supports several long-trackers. Additionally, the MJO is in a phase that is more supportive of eastern MDR development and would favor TCG becoming more frequent east of 50ºW. You do not need 200 hPa vorticity anomalies in the WATL if you already have established westward tracking TCs. Their anticyclones will take care of themselves barring negative TUTT/PV interaction. So as we progress through the next 2-3 weeks, tracking patterns are going to be key here. Where are the shortwaves versus ridges and what are their timings with potential TCs? We're going to have several recurves, no doubt. But if a few TCs form at low latitudes or time as a trough kicks out, I'd say the Antilles, Caribbean, Bahamas and SECONUS will have several threats by the time we enter October. Another thing to keep in mind is the pattern setup and MDR systems may last through mid-October. The past five years have seen later dates in MDR development versus climatological mean. Considering that we have a strengthening La Niña and positive AMO, this year may continue that trend.
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I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.
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lol... yeah. I am not innocent of this. But unfortunately it's all we've got, good or bad. There is no doubt the operationals in general have struggled this season missing TCGs until they're already occurring in real time. Now if they miss on actual modeled TCGs and none or very few actually pan out IRL, well then...
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Ensembles and operationals into the mid-range are hinting at an outbreak in the MDR. Two to three long-tracking hurricanes, especially given any left-behind stalls would increase seasonal ACE substantially regardless of any land threats. We'll definitely have to watch for anything that might remain shallow and develop near 60°W with the amplified NW ridge could capture and drive a potential system into the Antilles, Bahamas or ECONUS. And as[mention=9730]WxWatcher007[/mention] allluded to, could be a surprise in the GOM and potential threat with an amplified pattern in place.
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Ugh... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/03/typhoon-maysak-ship-with-43-crew-and-nearly-6000-cattle-missing-off-japan -
lol... No, that would be unwise since they are legitimate tropical climatologists. Hugging operational model outputs isn't how long-range forecasting works. It isn't particularly great for debating long-range on a tropical message board either. But I digress...
