Windspeed

There are already TS force sustained winds being observed. I suspect this may be the shortest classified TD on record as they may upgrade momentarily. lol... Somebody want to do the honors and make a thread?

Something I would like to point out as a reminder about the NHC Outlook's hatched regions with respect to potential cyclone development: These are not intended to be a representation of track nor to be confused as track guidance, they are merely to show a most probable region for a disturbance / area of invest to undergo cyclogenesis. Too many times I see reference to these discussed as forecast track, when in reality, any cyclogenesis that occurs could begin to track towards another direction once a system has been classified. For example, 95L's sharp wave axis or area of low pressure could form a vortex at highest forecast probability anywhere within that hatched zone, but the classified depression or tropical cyclone could immediately begin tracking west from initialization, north or even northeast. I am not accusing anyone of this in current discussion with 95L, but I have certainly seen it done here in the past and elsewhere. Additonally, this is also why the NHC will usually use arrows from an invest's location to a hatched region when they feel it will not develop at its current location. In that case, you can assume some track for the disturbance in an official sense, but only to the region of expected higher probs for cyclogenesis. Before any of this, it's just model slag discussion really.

Yeah I am infuriated. What does it even mean to be an American anymore with shit like this happening?

This is bloody disgraceful.... So much for being a beacon of light.

The topography of the Shizuoka prefecture already doing a number on Faxai's northern circulation. There is plenty of topography there besides just the majestic Mt. Fuji. The eye has become cloudfilled though radar still shows a robust northern eyewall. This will be the strongest typhoon in recent memory for the port of Yokohama and the harbour there based on current intensity, but hopefully the surge won't be too severe in Sagami Bay and Tokyo Bay due to Faxai's small core.

Kozushima getting hit pretty hard:

Hey Ryan, I was just about to post that GMI pass but I see you tweeted it.

Even when you prove by Trump's very own actions and statements how irresponsible and dangerous he is, some people go with this ridiculous "it's just weather" bullshit or any other lame excuse for the hundreds of other examples of inappropriate actions/behavior. Yeah, you can go **** right off with all of that. I'm done dealing with you. There is no overcoming this lemming mentality and cult insanity anymore with a narcissist megalomaniac. I've thrown in the towel. I pray for the day politics is boring again and matters of public safety are not denigrated into spectacle, misinformation and outright lies. I really am tired of this timeline. Perhaps some day we'll have a government again that isn't undermined all the way to the top with heads of the executive cabinet and congressional branches who actually do their damn jobs. For now it is a three-ring sideshow circus. Actually I shouldn't disrespect circus performers. They actually have value / worth and a place in our society. Edit: Well I guess I'm no longer refraining. I apologize for the extreme rant. I've said my peace and I am done with it. Try to get back to a positive mentality and move on. What else you going to do in these times?

Scroll up. He is fine and has been busy describing what he witnessed to news organizations.

Though 94L comes and goes with modeling development, and should continue getting watched, it is the following wave exiting the west African coast I believe will be our first CV longtracker with potential impacts. Gabrielle is technically a CV long tracker. At any rate, the new tropical wave should remain southerly in track through the MDR and strong signals of ridging next week may even drive it through the Lesser Antilles as a Caribbean runner. It already has a broad closed low and should detach itself from the ITCZ / monsoonal trough not too long after it emerges. This is way in advance and obviously subject to change, but it just has that look as well as decent low-level versus upper-level modeling support over the next 5-7 days. We are entering the height of the Cape Verde season climatological speaking, but you still have to have a favorable MDR. It looks like September into October will remain active.

I can assure you that the overwhelming majority of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration does NOT support that ridiculous statement by that anonymous puppet, whomever, who was clearly dancing at the strings of their boss. I'm not even going to begin to show my disgust about the situation as I have refrained up until this point. Keep in mind there still is not a formal director of NOAA at this point, as Trump's really bad nomination has yet to be confirmed. Hard to imagine even the interim taking such action. I'm sure the Dept. of Commerce head was happy to oblige. Embarrassing.

Oh look it's a banter thread... Well here's my contribution: Just be sure to apply an applicable super heat retardant/resistant suit onto your person before being subjected to this low-silica basalt river of heat, otherwise this song will turn your flammable corpse quickly into the heaping insignificant pile of carbon of which it will become...

Holy shit!!!

You are correct that they are outside the cone. And when Dorian is moving on a steady NNW or W of N track verifying greater forecast certainty, I guarantee they will advise for those watches and warnings to be lifted. Until then, we're waiting on Dorian and the large scale features at play to do what they are modeled and forecasted to do.

First off, I want to say thank you for your service. Second, you worked as a professional in that environment and I very much respect your opinion. However, though I understand and feel where you are coming from, I do disagree. I would say the NHC errs on the side of caution because they have major players to answer to all the way up to the highest levels of government. Their forecasts, even ones based on sound modeling ensemble consensus and synoptic reasoning could still fail. You can never be 100% certain especially dealing with TCs, more significantly, ones still at a lower latitude versus shoreline that is in close proximity. Sure, TCs are steered by large scale synoptic features and the NHC has become amazingly better at forecasting to a higher degree of accuracy as the seasons come and go. However, there still remains significant chance of error with stalled tropical cyclones in weak steering currents / flow. Perhaps in the time period of weak flow, one large scale dynamic feature does not evolve as modeled. Even multi-day repeated modeling consensus. Perhaps an initial trough misses. Perhaps a second trailing trough lifts further NW not in the modeling consensus. At the chance of sounding like devil's advocate here, you have a hurricane still far enough south that easterlies could become the dominate flow again due to ridging reexpanding NW. Is that a modeled solution right now with Dorian, or even being something mildly resolved at all? No. Absolutely not. But could that be the case in operational runs 12 hours from now? What about 24 hrs? Even slight uncertainty with a system so close to the coast, you keep the public aware. People have mentioned Ophelia. But I will take this a step further. How many hurricanes have we seen in the central Atlantic above 25°N be unanimously modeled to turn NE into the westerlies and yet end up lingering for over a week? There is typically one every three or four seasons that pulls off this Houdini act despite overwhelming modeling to the contrary. One trough misses it because one synoptic feature fails to evolve as modeled. Then a second trough misses. Suddenly the models begin rebuilding ridging, and here we go! That cyclone ends up tracking west again. Sometimes just a little longitude, sometimes even 5 to 10° before finally banking a weakness. Nothing much ever comes of it because it effects nothing but shipping interests and flight patterns. And really only some tropical meteorological enthusiast take note. But let's play that unlikely scenario near the Southeast CONUS. That would end up a catastrophic failure for a government agency where so many other government agencies and the public in general rely. It is their responsibility to see the unexpected and weigh it in doubt against consensus, just in case. Sure, overwhelming unlikely as that may seem, I am glad they account for it. We all realize atmospheric science in 2019 still has percentages of error and it is still as much dynamic and emperical as it is sound fundamental methodology in prognostication. You can never be 100% accurate, and even within great forecasting certainty and modeling support, surprises occur. There is simply too much at stake to not account for the possibility of a stalled system not quite performing as you would like, much less accounting for the unexpected. Having said all of this, I am not suggesting Dorian won't do as modeled from here on out, though this prolonged stall seems to have been undermodeled somewhat. Hopefully it misses and everyone on the SE coast can get back on with their lives.

Josh is about to get Haiyaned again. In the Atlantic even!!! Holy shit!

When the NAM isn't even being used in ill-advised posts about intensity and track guidance, you clearly got no game as a powerful hurricane. Much disrespect, brah.

This looks fantastic, Josh! Congratulations and keep an eye on Dorian. Things are looking a little more concerning for the SE CONUS tonight!

Up to 70% probs. Per evening visible and shortwave, the cyclonic turning looks even more pronounced than earlier today. No doubt that the axis has indeed closed. However, that does not mean we have a confined low level vort. Mid level circulation, certainly, and even a broad low level cutoff, albeit weak. But the invest needs some robust convection. Like I said in an earlier thread, a good period of convection/MCS right over the cutoff, this thing increases vorticity and should be a go for cyclogenesis and classification.