Windspeed

-NAO incoming? Some of the globals are hinting into next week but there is clearly an NAO influencing beast near Iceland showing up in the recent ECMWF and Ukie runs. The 12z Ukie is nuts. 1058hpa and 600dm vacuum buster incoming.. Edit: Will be interesting to see if this shifts and locks down into a classic Greenland block or splits anticyclonically into a +NAO/N. Euro block. Therefore, I may've been a wee bit premature. I suppose -NAO isn't necessarily a sure thing.

Some of you may've already seen this video but thought I would share anyway. Posting here not to clutter the Severe Weather thread up so far post event.

I agree, Carver. I think this Summer is probably leaning hot and dry for interior SE CONUS. Nino 3-4 is still about average to slightly above near surface but there is sub 22-24° isotherm progressing upward and Nino 1-2 is already running 24° near surface. A moderate La Niña looks in play at this point, and orientation of the Azores-Bermuda ridge axis may very well torch us July-September. NMME guidance suggests a strong La Niña presence into Winter. Still, high and dry isn't an absolute certainty. You never know how much low-level tropical feed can downplay/offset potential drought. Yes, WATL 500dm heights are critical to overall pattern but it doesn't take too much displacement to swing dry hot vs humid hot with plenty of afternoon/evening convective showers. OTOH, hints that the Atlantic MDR may run quite bit above normal by July. The deep MDR, especially the 50°W to the Verdes is running above average. Are we looking at a hyperactive NATL tropical season? I am starting to think so. Again, how strong do Western ATL heights remain in place through late September? Will there be enough blocking in place to keep everything south of the region? This may be a bad year for Mexico and W Caribbean impacts. But something may sneak up here to alleviate our dry conditions as well. That is to say, I wouldn't count out some early tropical season respite (June-July) from the GOM with a few stalled-out variety tropical lows. August-September might truly be the dog days of Summer this year however.

Plenty of incredible damage videos and images, but this particular photo of the damage path looking east towards Cookeville is disturbing. Any number of deaths is awful and I am certainly not downplaying this tragedy for those suffering, only just to say that considering the time of night and the track/damage path, it is perhaps a miracle the numbers aren't much higher. Please consider finding a legitimate donation fund setup to help those in need.

Some crazy survival stories coming out of this long-lived tornado. I do wish news agencies would stop referring to the event as an "outbreak" however. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/nashville-tornado-putnam-county-death-toll-rises-today-2020-04-03/

I agree. Not to slander the individual or say they are uneducated, anyone can be wrong in the process of research. I would just be cautious and certainly not trusting. Established science would suggest we are lucky to not be in a Solar maximum, that atmospheric influences might be even more extreme. Though again, divergence in climate is not simply explained by it's hotter, colder, wetter or drier at any specific location. There are, of course, other regional variables; but the idea here is increasing periods of measurable short and long term extreme deviations per climatological norm at any specific geographic location. If anything, that we are not within increased Solar output could be taken as alarming.

And here we go...

https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/data_sub/re_anal.html Of note, aside from the upgrade of Betsy to a Cat 4 as noted above, Carla is also now a confirmed Cat 4 landfall into Texas. Haiti was hit by two Cat 4 hurricanes within two years in Cleo ('64) and Flora ('63). Belize was also impacted by a Cat 4, Hattie, '65. Full report can be found here: 1961-1965 revisions

Not to focus on / give attention to any one particular met, but since I shared a tweet from Webb earlier and he seems to still be dialed in on the evolution of the upcoming pattern and potential storm tracks, I'll share this as well.. If anyone objects please don't hesitate to speak up.

Fri 00z ECMWF backed off totals several inches from last night's / Thur 00z op. Maybe .5 to 1.5 inches for most areas up Holston Valley and KTRI. KTYS might get a light dusting. Only significant totals are for some of the higher elevations of SWVA across the highest ridges of Clinch and Walker mountains but that's maxing out around 3 inches so nothing too exciting there. Perhaps there will be another swing in outputs but this just look like the bulk of moisture is going to stay south of the region in time for the cold to play ball. What overriding moisture is remaining will be nosed off until the cold can dam against the Apps. Would need a significant shift in the low and better timing with the cold. Hard to bank on that. If the cold pattern / reinforcement can stay in place perhaps some action around Thanksgiving?

The 00z ECMWF output 1-3 inches across upper East Tennessee to 4-5 inches across the higher elevations of southwest VA is certainly eye-opening. More of a light dusting south of 40. 1-2 for KTYS and perhaps 2-3 for KTRI? It's still way early. My pessimism aside, these outputs may even go up today, tomorrow, perhaps even into the weekend, but I'm not buying into even shallow totals until there is a significant increase. Even then it will probably still be at most 1-2 inches for KTRI and 2-4 for higher elevations to the west and northwest. But any snow is cool for mid-November. So there's some optimism.

Pushing 7.8 ADT! 165 kt monster...

Halong's development and structure very reminiscent of Mikael in the GOM last year. Probably SS Cat 5 right now. ADT up to 7.3 / 150 kts now. This beast is cranking...

Increasingly warm core now and has eye-like feature. This should be upgraded to a named storm at least.

Since we now have a TC showing up within modeling, the moisture stream is shifting east into the Tennessee Valley. There will still be significant moisture stream up into the Mississippi Valley in combo with the frontal boundary, so the flood threat is still possible there. However, with a well-developed surface low such as TC, the flooding threat may shift east into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast. This is a late development that needs to be watched. Of course many areas in the Southeast still need the rain.

To say it's been rare to see GOM development this late in October would be an understatement. The last purely GOM system to become a TC this late in the calender year was Juan in 1985: The reasons meteorologically-speaking are fairly straight forward. Early October is very different than late October. Strong frontal boundaries and the jet stream have typically overtaken and suppressed favorable atmospheric dynamics for cyclogenesis by this point.

This is a good thing as any slower setup would nearly guarantee a north gulf coast hurricane. As it stands, this may still end up making landfall as a "strong" tropical storm. Which again, the flooding potential is the real threat here during frontal merger up the Mississippi Valley.