Windspeed

First recon isn't until 1800z tomorrow. I'd say by the time they get there, this is going to be a strong TS based on the rate of organization currently underway. This already looks like a TD. NHC could even skip TD and go straight to TS if we had a little better RS data to analyze. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 311600 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1200 PM EDT SAT 31 OCTOBER 2020 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z NOVEMBER 2020 TCPOD NUMBER.....20-158 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN) FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71 A. 01/1800Z A. 02/0530Z B. NOAA2 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0229A CYCLONE C. 01/1500Z C. 02/0145Z D. 15.6N 78.0W D. 15.8N 80.0W E. 01/17300Z TO 01/2100Z E. 02/0515Z TO 02/0830Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 72 A. 02/1130Z B. AFXXX 0329A CYCLONE C. 02/0800Z D. 15.7N 81.0W E. 02/1115Z TO 02/1430Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. $$ SEF NNNN

There now looks to be a closed surface vortex under that mid-level canopy. Clear low-level cumulus are streaking ESE and eastward now within the cloud field, a sign low-level westerlies are increasing. Still no good recent ASCAT. We'll see if we get a better one this afternoon, but a spade is a spade.

MW pass is about 4 hrs old...

No reconnaissance flights until tomorrow so we'll have to make due with visible satellite evidence and ASCAT today. Perhaps a ship report or two. All station bouys in this region of the Caribbean for air pressure and winds are not currently operational.

Banding on the south side of evident mid-level cyclonic rotation. Still no certainty of a vortex down at the surface but with that strong convective band aligned west to east and curving into the MCS, I have seen far worse classified a Tropical Depression. Getting a little impatient. We do not have any recon flight plans yet. [emoji848]

There's no way this isn't sub 890 mb... The inner eyewall has continued to contract yet intensify despite the intensifying outer eyewall. This is a classic Gilbert '88 or Tip '79 looking concentric eyewall monster.

Need recon. This convection looks like it is encompassing a very small surface vortex. Same general latitude as was suspect earlier prior to waning. Don't know if it will be enough to garner TD status by 11PM ADT, but the disturbance continues to organize.

12z intensity guidance.

Since daybreak. Evident mid-level rotation in the cloud envelope. There is low-level banding streaming out of the NNW which seems somewhat suspicious that a surface low has closed even if weak. Either way, this disturbance continues to look better with each hour. May have a depression by this evening.

NHC has bumped up the 2 day to 70%.

Cat 5 comment corrected above.

Looks like the WPAC is going to produce our first and perhaps only Cat 5 of 2020. Goni has become intense. Edit: Ugh... This year. I completely forgot about Amphan and Harold. So yes, this makes the third Cat 5.

If this goes bonkers in the central Caribbean, it may leave the door open for the GOM. Upper mid-level flow would be more ESErly for a WNW track if a stronger stacked hurricane. This could be another Yucatán strike and then depending on downstream wave/trough interaction, could lift poleward. But obviously it's too early. But a weaker system would seem more likely a Nicaraguan/Honduras threat. A stronger hurricane a Belize/Yucatán/GOM threat.

Radar out of Martinique.

Here we go again. Newly designated Invest 96L is already showing signs of further development tonight in the Lesser Antilles with strong southerly banding trying to close off a mid-level vortex. Too early to know if a surface circulation is forming, but clearly the disturbance is organizing. If TCG is ahead of schedule it could really open the door for a hurricane, perhaps a major by the time this moves into the Western Caribbean. Going ahead and firing up a thread due to land interaction and an obvious up in genesis progs. A large area of disturbed weather in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles is associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the time the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea early next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

This persistent flare-up of deep convection has a clear linear band on the east side of the wave axis. That boundary is southerly. That needs to be closely watched as it would not take much for convergence to develop a low-level vortex. This is clearly going to close off a mid-level vortex within the tiny MCS even if temporary. TCG could happen way before initially expected which would open up a plethora of forecasting possibilities. This would immediately become a long-tracking TC through a favorable Caribbean with very high OHC.

Streams are up but nothing too major. Upper NE TN/SW VA faired pretty well. All the high wind remained east of the Blue Ridge or ridges and peaks above 3600 ft. Generally the stronger stuff clipped Chattanooga but shot east through the Carolinas to SE VA. As for rain, here's a clip of the West Prong of the Little Pigeon from Gatlinburg, TN.

New invest does have some disorganized but building convection along the wave axis. It's not much for now but this does seem to have potential over the weekend in the central Caribbean. It's moving slow enough that strong enough consolidated convection could fold or close off a surface vortex.

Most recent outlook from the NHC... A large area of disturbed weather moving from the tropical Atlantic across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea is associated with a pair of tropical waves. Upper-level winds are expected to become more conducive for development of this disturbance during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves westward across the central and western Caribbean Sea. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Screaming low-level jet influenced by the strong trough. I'd say the dry slot may pack a punch well after the precipitating core has move away.