Windspeed

Nice hurricane symbol pattern in the -80 to -90C° cloud tops. Also the eye is very symmetrical at the moment.

We'll at least have another pass to see if the pressure is still falling. Based on the warm eye, I expect it to continue falling between now and then.

I was looking for something a lot more significant than 10 kts from spike to moat. The rain rate in that spike is impressive however.

In hindsight, recon is not finding an outer wind maxima. This could still be bombing and not yet at peak. We might've just been too premature with the "Raw T" talk and need to let the pressure continue to drop as a result of the impressive convection and eyewall structure. This will likely still reach Cat 5 overnight.

lol...

Background pressures seem high due to the digging ridge. If Eta is below 910 mb, considering its small RMW, it's probably pushing 160 kts at the surface.

Recon is getting close.

Yes it will need to contract some in the next few hours to begin really starving the inner eye of low-level convergence. I think recon is going to get lucky with peak, though the inner vorticity maximum might be able to get a bit stronger in the short-term.

Whatever lifeforms are residing on Moskito Cay Reserve might get lucky if this can keep jogging S in the short-term.

Absurd...

Honestly this has probably been a Cat 5 most of the evening upon completion of whatever internal structural change earlier. I don't think that was necessarily an ERC. Perhaps the very intense bursting [all that lightning was occurring for a reason] was interrupting the eyewall. Essentially strong updraft anvils were spilling over into the eye filling it. MW never really supported any concentric feature. Now is perhaps more of a concentric pattern on the most recent radar than perhaps ever in its life cycle, but it is pretty spread away from the present core.

× Well Leroy, you're going to get your Cat 5 now. I'll say 913 mb / 160 kts.

Pretty noticeable wobble SSW. Could be a trichoidal motion due to an outer band but most recent MW wasn't really that definitive of an closed outer band or concentric feature. Of course recon would have been helpful here too. At any rate, interesting motion. Is it stalling?

More NSFW porn from Dakota Smith...

NSFW...

Recon AF305 has taken off and is en route.

Unsure if fill or just high debris from anvil spill over of that W eyewall. Also it may be continuing to contract into a pinhole. At any rate, it's horribly disappointing we don't have recon to verify what may be one of the fastest periods of intensification we've seen this late in the season.

Sheesh!!!

Hah... Good timing. The one above that is smoothed and this one that is more like original AVN that was on the old NESDIS site.

Constant lightning going off in the eyewall. Recon may find a high end Category 4. Unless there is an ERC/structural change, Eta has our best shot of attaining Category 5 this year in the basin now. Happens now or try again next year I reckon.

There have not been many major hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin during the month of November. There has ever only been one known Category 5, the 1932 Camagüey hurricane that struck Cuba and was devastating to their eastern province. So we're most definitely entering rare territory here and perhaps even the rarest by the end of the day.

Since daybreak. This is going to max out pretty dang fast based on satellite trends. I'd say this is a Cat 3 and by the time recon gets there this afternoon it will be a Cat 4 at least by the time they complete their last mission pass.