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Windspeed

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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Windspeed
    Pouring in Bristol now. Early radar echoes all seemed mostly virga, but now seems like the column has moistened up enough for some moderate flakes. A nice surprise!
  2. Windspeed
    Not going through the entire modern historical record, but it's not frequent. These are the most recent years that the North Atlantic Basin had higher ACE than the NW Pacific Basin. 1998 1999 2010 2017 2020 Interestingly, the two other hyperactive seasons in the Atlantic, 2004 and 2005, got stomped by the WPAC.
  3. Windspeed
    Model evolution / trends over the past 12 hours are definitely swinging towards a major snowstorm event for the eastern half of the Valley. Also extreme SWVA to Roanoke looking better to avoid a potential sharp cuttoff around KTRI. I suppose I am cautiously optimistic now. See if this can hold serve on the next few runs to gain confidence.
  4. Windspeed
    [emoji102]
  5. Windspeed
  6. Windspeed
    That 12z ECMWF run has peaked my excitement. I have been cautiously optimistic but now I am in full hype mode. I feel conservatively 3" is now a safe call for KTRI. Edit: Meh, maybe 2-3" would be the safe call.
  7. Windspeed
    Make that a Cat 5 on the Aussie scale. [emoji102] JTWC presently has it at 110 kts and expectss further intensification. Should reach a high end Category 4(Saffir-Simpson) prior to land interaction.
  8. Windspeed
    This is a pretty big deal and thought it should go here.
  9. Windspeed
    Yeah you can always live vicariously through New Englanders. [emoji25]
  10. Windspeed
    Worth pointing out that Central America was hit very hard and we shouldn't forget that. Though Louisiana was certainly beat up this season, the US still has the resources to mitigate and assist our fellow citizens. We shouldn't forget them either. That being said, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua and the SW Caribbean were already struggling. Millions of of people are suffering there economically. Now we have a humanitarian crisis as many localized regions are currently devastated. This was a horrific hurricane season.
  11. Windspeed
    I think last Tuesday's outlook was a wrap on the 2020 season folks! ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Special Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 955 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. A gale-force, non-tropical low pressure system is centered between the Madeira Islands and the Azores. This system has become less organized during the past 24 hours, and environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development as the system moves southwestward during the next day or two. Although subtropical development is now unlikely, this system will continue to produce strong winds and locally heavy rains in the Madeira Islands and the Azores through Wednesday. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France. This will be the last Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued on this system. Regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlooks will resume on June 1, 2021, while Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as necessary during the off-season. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France can be found under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW. Forecaster Beven
  12. Windspeed
    It's literally insane. Gati came out of nowhere, was not modeled by any guidance near this intensity. There is no historical record of a Cat 3 landall in Somalia, though I suspect in years where upwelling off of the NE Somaliaan coast, OHC at near surface might be warm enough on occasion. Still, generally too arid an environment to support such intensities. Takes more than SST support. Just a really phenomenal cyclone. Gati does appear to be weakening into landfall. Unfortunately it may be too late for weakening to mitigate impacts to higher population center as these folks have rarely ever experienced hurricane force impacts to a weak infrastructure.
  13. Windspeed
  14. Windspeed
    ACE is now at 170. Probably going to hit 180 if Iota rapidly deepens into a Cat 4. The Greek list has been a season in of itself.
  15. Windspeed
    Don't shoot the messenger but, well, yuck.
  16. Windspeed
    Yes. Also a 67 mph gust now reported near Dundee in Polk County.
  17. Windspeed
    ACE is at 163 for the season. If 98L, possible future Iota develops into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean, that should get us to 170. A little bit of irony in that. Several preseason forecasts for a hyperactive season, including CSU/RAMSDIS had 170 ACE, including myself early in the thread. Thought it unwise to forecast higher as it takes a lot of luck and a number of long-tracking high end intense hurricanes. Of course this season being dominated by near-to-land rapid intensification and weaker TCs, it's still pretty phenomenal we made it to 170. Thank the late season burst of hurricanes for powering ACE upwards. I had actually revised my number down a lot back in early October to around 140. Definitely busted on that...lol.
  18. Windspeed
    Downgraded. Punta Gorda just had a 69 mph wind gust.
  19. Windspeed
    I see what you did there.
  20. Windspeed
    Text book subtropical storm...
  21. Windspeed
    97L...
  22. Windspeed
    Eta's core convection has improved significantly this evening. Dare I say looks like a hurricane is back on the menu for tomorrow. It will not remain one into the NGOM however.
  23. Windspeed
    Severe weather outbreaks.
  24. Windspeed
    Convection slowly increasing around the center.
  25. Windspeed
    This landslide in Guatemala took out an estimated 75 homes.
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