Windspeed

Elsa had stronger surface-based convergence and trade winds on the northern semicircle of its closed circulation than Andrew had in its initial intensification phase. Background in situ tropospheric conditions are just as important as the surface vortex barometric forcing in a tropical cyclone for surface winds. Not all TCs evolve the same. Environment matters as do wind obs.

The classification has never changed. ≥74MPH sustained surface winds in a tropical cyclone is classified as a hurricane/typhoon depending on basin.

Rare that it survived the Caribbean as a classified tropical storm this time of year. Rare it reached hurricane intensity more than once while surviving land interaction this time of year. It's also worth reiterating how damn crazy Hurricane Dennis was in 2005, which reached Cat 4 intensity in the Caribbean and made landfall as a Category 3 in the Florida Panhandle sixteen years ago today.

Look out, Jacksonville...

Yikes...

Charley was already well-organized and made landfall as a hurricane in Cuba. Elsa, though convectively active, is still yet to put itself in a position to intensify rapidly. Now could that occur? Sure. But it needs to be developed to really take advantage of diffluence. Otherwise, it's high end TS to minimal hurricane at best. I don't think this will be a Charley. Too much against it.

Center/LLC relocations are allowing Elsa to thread the needle, but at the same time, such reorganization can take time to respond with pressure falls and intensification. Despite the present more symmetrical convective envelope, banding and a healthy MCS, Elsa needs to chill with the break down and reformation of low-level vorticity maximums before it's going to experience a prolonged period of reintensification.

Yeah I think they just missed earlier due to fast rate of motion and small low-level vortmax.

Convection is trying to wrap upshear around the LLC. The mid-to-upper easterly flow might be starting to amplify now. We'll see if that can counter the high speed low level flow somewhat for less of a deep layer tilt to the vortex. May still remain somewhat weak regardless.

28 mph is just screaming in the tropical latitudes. I cannot imagine Ela wrapping convection upshear quickly as the system continues at that forward speed but who knows? The mid-to-upper easterly flow may also ramp up tomorrow and allow more alignment / stacking. Either way this probably remains status quo the next 24-36 hrs. Here is a good thread by Papin on Elsa: Here is new video up by Cowan as well:

No.

Beven has a high degree of uncertainty on intensity mainly due to the strong easterly flow that will be kicking hard as this system traverses the Caribbean. A potential motion of 22-25 kts is screaming. That being said, if PTC 5 develops faster in the short term and increases intensity potential for the Lesser Antilles, it could maintain itself within that fast embedded flow. Anything from a weak TS to a Cat 2 by the time this is south of Haiti. So yes, a very problematic intensity forecast for now.

^ Of course, the Euro may be about to miss on an early TCG here. It's not perfect and does strike out occasionally. There is clearly good low level convergence now occurring within the southern envelope of the wave axis and monsoonal trough. The northern envelope of the wave appears to be folding and breaking away from the ITCZ, which is dragging behind 95L to the WNW of 97L. In short, we have a decent cyclonic spin to this system already; whether it presently has a closed low level vortex, that may not be far off with convective bursting near a hypothetical center tonight.

Ridge placement is such that if 97L develops, it's going to be a Caribbean runner. Typically with a pronounced surface and 590s DM ridge, you get strong low level easterlies in the Caribbean. Climatologically speaking, we still have westerlies screaming over top creating strong shear for anything that might develop, aka the Caribbean graveyard this time of year. But with a potential CCKW in place, increased instability and potential upper level easterlies may coincide through the Caribbean as well. Upper ridge placement could pull off a surprise here. Not to get too far ahead (TCG is still not climatologically favored), but similar rare occurrences and synoptic favoribility have happened. The last anomalous July was 2005. We got Dennis and Emily that year.

Beyond the marginal SSTs right now and few areas of interest, more importantly it's the overall synoptic pattern setting into place that is a bit eye-popping right now. July might have a few early MDR systems, but August may be far more active this year versus previous recent active years.

Good instability. If the MCS can persist and drive due west, we might have a named TS at landfall.

Ensembles are really trying hard to resolve some kind of cyclogenesis in the MDR next week. It wouldn't be unprecedented. Thermal support is a little meh but SSTs have warmed moderately the past few weeks. If nothing else, it might make things interesting to track into the Eastern Caribbean graveyard that is typical at this point in the season. The suspect easterly wave does look very robust/healthy at this time.

The city of Slidell and St. Tammany Parish along the northeast shore of Lake Pontchartrain appears to have taken a pretty big hit from Claudette via flash flooding. Again, perhaps a weak sloppy system to scale for tropical cyclone organization. But really any organized coastal surface low in the right environment with intense convergent boundary riding inland can do a lot of damage by significant localized flash flooding.

Wasn't a time issue. I chose not to enter. Not that I would get lucky enough to repeat but someone else should win. Good luck.

I'll give it another go next season. Good luck!