Windspeed

Definitely an improving satellite presentation before landfall.

That last vortex message was a little concerning. Closed eyewall at 8nm. It's over a shallow shelf, not sure if upwelling or participitable cooling could bring down shallow SSTs fast, but it leaves the door open for some possible restrengthening if it lingers too long off the coast. Might just hold its own through landfall, but we'll have to see if the satellite presentation responds and the eye can clear out. New outer band could also reinstate another ERC just as well too.

Last 12 hours of motion and fixes have been an absolute crawl. It may pick up westward motion but it sure is slow enough to cause some uncertainty and put down some insane rainfall totals.

Classic and mature ERC this morning prior to landfall.

Eta may very well not get upgraded though it's borderline right now. Eventually time is going to run out. Either way, definitely the best looking Atlantic hurricane for 2020. Now beyond the semantics before I fall over. Unfortunately an awful scenario for Nicaragua. Eta is now making a beeline for the most populated city in that region, Puerto Cabezus. Then it moves on into higher terrain and dumps insane amounts of rainfall over the next 72 hours.

Some left the party too fast. lol... Eta is still reaching for peak.

If the VDM verifies the 922 mb, that's a 5 mb drop in 1 hour. This is still rapidly deepening. Bit of a chase to see how long the eyewall can continue this pace until the outer band takes over. This probably does reach Cat 5 tonight.

Nice hurricane symbol pattern in the -80 to -90C° cloud tops. Also the eye is very symmetrical at the moment.

We'll at least have another pass to see if the pressure is still falling. Based on the warm eye, I expect it to continue falling between now and then.

I was looking for something a lot more significant than 10 kts from spike to moat. The rain rate in that spike is impressive however.

In hindsight, recon is not finding an outer wind maxima. This could still be bombing and not yet at peak. We might've just been too premature with the "Raw T" talk and need to let the pressure continue to drop as a result of the impressive convection and eyewall structure. This will likely still reach Cat 5 overnight.

lol...

Background pressures seem high due to the digging ridge. If Eta is below 910 mb, considering its small RMW, it's probably pushing 160 kts at the surface.

Recon is getting close.

Yes it will need to contract some in the next few hours to begin really starving the inner eye of low-level convergence. I think recon is going to get lucky with peak, though the inner vorticity maximum might be able to get a bit stronger in the short-term.

Whatever lifeforms are residing on Moskito Cay Reserve might get lucky if this can keep jogging S in the short-term.

Absurd...

Honestly this has probably been a Cat 5 most of the evening upon completion of whatever internal structural change earlier. I don't think that was necessarily an ERC. Perhaps the very intense bursting [all that lightning was occurring for a reason] was interrupting the eyewall. Essentially strong updraft anvils were spilling over into the eye filling it. MW never really supported any concentric feature. Now is perhaps more of a concentric pattern on the most recent radar than perhaps ever in its life cycle, but it is pretty spread away from the present core.

× Well Leroy, you're going to get your Cat 5 now. I'll say 913 mb / 160 kts.

Pretty noticeable wobble SSW. Could be a trichoidal motion due to an outer band but most recent MW wasn't really that definitive of an closed outer band or concentric feature. Of course recon would have been helpful here too. At any rate, interesting motion. Is it stalling?

More NSFW porn from Dakota Smith...

NSFW...

Recon AF305 has taken off and is en route.

Unsure if fill or just high debris from anvil spill over of that W eyewall. Also it may be continuing to contract into a pinhole. At any rate, it's horribly disappointing we don't have recon to verify what may be one of the fastest periods of intensification we've seen this late in the season.