Windspeed

It may be semantics, but someone is going to get hit hard by this hurricane. It's definitely NOT a weakening junk storm falling apart at landfall like I thought it would be.

Looks like they are going for a SE to NW pass. We should know definitively whether or not this has reached MH status prior to landfall.

Sheesh...

Wow...

969.9 EXTRAP on that last pass.

132 kts at the 942 mb level! I'd absolutely go with 115 mph now.

NHC could definitely go with a 115 mph advisory now.

Big burst of lightning on latest imagery.

Crazy impressive for freaking October 28th. Kate in November '85 was an impressive Category 2 into the Panhandle but it was also weakening significantly at landfall.

Looks like SE quadrant is the strongest quadrant now due to relative storm motion. So this is definitely not a Cat 3 yet. However there will be one more pass through the SE quadrant so we'll see if it has further strengthened over the past hour.

Fortunately it will be hauling ass so hopefully that will mitigate surge. Yes, there still will be surge, but again, forward motion is so fast it may not have enough time to build surge inland too far or compromise levees. This looks like it will be a bad wind event however as time is going to run out before it can weaken from maximum intensity...

Man it's going to really be something if this reaches Cat 3 this afternoon. Nobody saw this coming.

Uhm...pretty strong convective towers are now presently going up in the eastern eyewall. Zeta is putting on a show.

For a Category 2 hurricane, which is what I expect recon to find, this is about as gorgeous a satellite presentation as your ever going to see. If that eye continues warming, this might make run at Cat 3. I don't think it will make it before landfall, but 6 hrs is plenty of timing during rapid deepening. Zeta is going to be a bad landfall if it continues strengthening all the way onto shore. No hurricane is the same, but an intensifying Cat 2 is worse than a weakening one. Winds will mix down more efficiently. I cannot get over this satellite presentation considering the SSTs. Was totally not expecting this regardless of the HWRF's hints.

Multiple CBs rotating around the eyeband with three distinct hot towers. Zeta appears to be intensifying. Amazing what even 26°C SSTs can fuel within a very dynamic upper atmospheric environment.

[emoji102]

Visible of Zeta's core since daybreak...

The Atlantic Basin has now surpassed 140.9 (96.9 climatological average for date) for the season. 150 is generally considered the benchmark for a hyperactive season. Obviously we're there based on number of storms but passing that mark also quantifies the ACE metric as well. If there ends up being another strong Caribbean hurricane as has been suggested off and on by modeling in the coming week, we'll likely eclipse that mark now. Either way it has been a very busy, even exhausting year.

Based on HURDAT, Zeta is now the strongest hurricane on record this far West in the Atlantic Basin for this late in the season. There appears to be some assymetric shape taking over due to strong SW flow. The system is also gaining forward motion pretty quickly. Not sure how much weakening will occur prior to landfall if any though due to fast motion. HWRF wanted to get this down to around 969 mb by landfall. We'll see...

Haha well I think I still busted far lower than I thought possible. ACE is a disgrace for these ridiculous numbers.

I'd say this rise is temporary due to reorganization of the convective band currently wrapping the vortex that was evident on MW. Zeta's core still has 24 hours over good OHC to deepen.

Much colder and stronger mid-level digging trough. I think this is going to play right into modeling.

Even with the cold upper dynamics, I am still not buying anything lower than 970 hPa landfall. It's just really difficult for 26°C SSTs to pull that off and there may be strong mid-level flow to advect Theta-E dry air intrusion by landfall. Again, this is semantics and the real beef may be during ET transition post landfall. Yes, Zeta could go nuts the next 24 hrs, but it's probably not going to hold that intensity through landfall. That doesn't mean to downplay the post-landfall event at all since it matters not.

Ohhh..