Windspeed

The initial fix was very weak and the overall circulation was still broad. However, since recon left, strong convective bursting is occurring just SE of that fix. Convergence into these new strong cells may ramp up a new small vorticity maximum in rather short order. Have to watch if a core can develop out of this tomorrow. It's currently positioned perfectly in the NW Caribbean and will be there for several days until it gains latitude. Things could ramp up fairly rapidly by Monday.

Looks like rain is on the menu late week. Hopefully not too heavy.

000 WTNT43 KNHC 242059 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020 500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020 Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a tropical depression. GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial intensity. The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has started at least drifting toward the north-northwest. A shortwave trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so, with only a northwest drift anticipated. Mid-level ridging should build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan Peninsula or Channel. The ridge shouldn't last too long, however, with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday. The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences. At this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the model consensus. While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low- and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned. Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite low shear and very warm waters. In a day or two, the depression will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the cyclone is near the Yucatan. Although the forecast shows the system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico, this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds. A combination of cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone moving northward across the Gulf. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday. 2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas. 3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the depression and updates to the forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 18.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Might become a quality system that devolves into a junk landfall.

5PM ADT is interesting... Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low over the next two days and intensity changes will likely be influenced by inner core fluctuations. The intensity guidance does suggest some modest intensification is possible in the short-term as Epsilon moves over a warm eddy in the Gulf Stream, assuming the current secondary eyewall consolidates. Based on this reasoning, the official intensity forecast was nudged slightly upward for the first 24 h. Afterwards, slow weakening is expected but Epsilons 34- and 50-kt wind field should continue to expand to the south while it undergoes extratropical transition, completing the process by early Monday. There was a recon flight mission to deploy an OHC bouy drop NE of Bermuda. It's possible they found the Gulf Stream OHC to be warmer and deeper than expected. Especially if a warm eddy in in the forecast track. Would be fascinating to see Epsilon's larger eye band actually intensify at such a high latitude so late in the year but outflow is bonkers and shear will remain low enough to not be a deterrence. Guess we'll see...

Latest ASCAT shows an area of suspicious convergence that might be trying to close off low-level vorticity near Grand Cayman. See if convection can persist there through this evening.

May have some fireworks in the Caribbean in early November. That's a lot of supportive 200 hPa divergence and lift incoming thanks to a very convectively supportive MJ phase. We may have a strong close to the season.

Going to go ahead and fire up a thread for this. Conditions look favorable and progs are up TCG will occur with this disturbance over the next 24-48 hrs. Close proximity to land and potential for a hurricane lingers. How fast TCG occurs and how quickly a core can develop will have a lot to say for downstream impacts. Based on the synoptic setup, this could be a EGOM / Florida Peninsula threat down the road. Obviously a threat to Cuba and the Caymans in the shorter term for significant flooding.

Definitely getting interesting. Small surface trough under a ridge. We'll see if strong convection can close off something at the surface. Atmospheric conditions are favorable. Very moist airmass. Good convergence at the surface.

Very nice presentation. Large outer band. Perhaps even some frontal characteristics in the outer fringes due to the large-scale trough / upper low, with of course the purely tropical Epsilon still powering on in the center.

The Atlantic Basin has crossed 130 ACE for the season. http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic What is clearly phenomenal isn't necessarily the ACE the Atlantic has produced, which is below what I had expected, but the deadness of the WPAC.

Newest MW..

Don't throw in the towel just yet. Lingering boundaries into the Caribbean could still lead to a strong hurricane even in November. Though I don't expect the Atlantic to produce a Cat 5, we could certainly see another major, even a landfalling one before the door is slammed shut on 2020.

Pretty amazing little hurricane. A shallow tropopause with cold pool aloft under minimal shear. Core of hurricane positioned perfectly under the small anticyclone, which is of course positioned perfectly in the middle of a large-scale upper trough. Marginal 26-27°C SSTs is more than enough to drive significant lapse rates and core convection. I still didn't expect a major. But I'm not surprised. Ophelia did as much even with cooler heat content but had an even shallower tropopause / cooler dam aloft. Just gotta have the right atmospheric setup at higher latitudes late in the season. That being said, Epsilon has probably peaked. Arguably the prettiest hurricane of the season.

Epsilon is going to outpace its intensity forecast in short order. Nice CBs occurring around the core with plenty of lightning. Think this is a hurricane this evening and a Cat 2 seems likely now.

Looks to be intensifying. Also, FWIW, though SSTs are only running between 27 and 28°C in that region of the Atlantic, upper tropospheric temps are cooler now that we're in mid-to-late October. Epsilon is under an PV- anticyclone that developed out of the old ULL that has cold air aloft. This is driving lapse rates. Should be plenty of fuel and instability for Epsilon to reach hurricane intensity in the coming days. Might overperform and reach Cat 2. Looks like the beginnings of an eyewall developing.

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Both the 12z GFS and the GFS Para have a system developing in the west-central Caribbean and hitting Cuba. The GFS has a weaker / minimal 'cane getting captured by the trough and heading OTS after Cuba and Bahamas. The Para allows it to get left behind and produces a major into the Bahamas heading north. Long-range, obviously, but something to model watch in the coming week. The ECMWF ensembles are not really capturing much yet due to beyond mid-range. We'll see where things stand modeling wise 3-4 days from now.

That's a little complicated to be certain. Granted, speculation here; but two points: 1) It would not have needed a full day at the rate the pressure fall it was experiencing into landfall to have become a more intense hurricane. Between 4:30AM and 10:30AM CDT recon missions recorded a pressure drop from 937 mb to 923 mb. The last pass recorded 919 mb at 12:30PM CDT. A mere six more hours over those above-normal GOM SSTs and exquisite upper tropospheric conditions and it would have likely bottomed out around 910 hPa, taking into account some leveling off as well. At that rate of pressure fall and gradient increase, even nine more hours we would have seen Michael flirt with 150-160 kts (175-185 mph) winds. 2) On the other hand, the eye was also contracting and a concentric band was beginning to form. So given too much more time, very probable that an ERC would have most likely initiated given another full 24 hrs, and we would have likely seen Michael level off and weaken.

000 WTNT61 KNHC 092300 TCUAT1 Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020 600 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020 ...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CREOLE LOUISIANA... National Weather Service Doppler radar imagery, Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, and surface observations indicate that Delta has made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, around 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC) with estimated maximum sustained winds of 100 mph (155 km/h). Delta is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64 inches). A Florida Coastal Monitoring Tower near Lake Arthur, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (123 km/h) and a gust to 96 mph (154 km/h). A NOAA National Weather Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of over 8 feet above ground level. SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...29.8N 93.1W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF CREOLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF CAMERON LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown