Windspeed

Still a long way to go and not entirely convinced Karen doesn't dissipate in such hostile northeasterly mid-to-upper level flow. If Karen makes it north of PR intact though, the building ECONUS ridge is quite a humdinger. Obviously Bahamas and Florida would be the immediate concern based on ECMWF op trend and EPS. The central and eastern GOM heat potential is high for a fast moving west to wnw tracking hurricane regardless of the Gulf Loop. Again, very early and too much uncertainty at this point, but the potential is eye-opening.

Future big ACE generator right here. With a big deep layer central Atlantic trough it should not impact anthing west of 60°W however it could impact the Azores depending on how fast it recurves. With the deep layer trough, Lorenzo may actually continue deepening or remain a major hurricane as it moves north into the central Atlantic as the steering layer may offset upper level wind shear. Such trough interactions can enhance favorability versus negative upstream shear. Hence why I think Lorenzo will be a big ACE producing Cape Verde hurricane.

Likewise NCEP forecasts a strong heat ridge over the eastern CONUS the remainder of the month into Oct. Don't just assume modeling will follow suite with every MDR to Caribbean system from here on out. It only takes one getting missed by a weakness and slipping under an ECONUS ridge at the right time to end up as far west as the Gulf. Ridge and trough interactions are dynamic, not held within stasis. Even looking at current global modeling, a case in point. Look at the location of fantasy hurricane moving under the ridge into an amped CONUS pattern. That would spell trouble:

Ah hell, it's the tracking and analyzing any MDR system that's interesting when it comes to the slightest threat to land. Additionally there remains a window that Jerry could reintensify. Also Bermuda could still be impacted, which they just got a punch in the face from Humberto, so it remains worth watching.

First recon pass was underwhelming to put it mildly. Looks like the impressive convective burst earlier was an intense MCS that was not coupled. Hence why it rotated WSW and decayed. If anything, it may've actually weakened the LLC more since it tilted the mid-level vort and shredded off.

And...

RE: Recent MW...

That mid-level vort looks like it might already be decaying. Recon is en route so we'll get some confirmation on structure soon enough.

Latest MW pass looks much improved.

Ridiculous convective mass. If the vortex has realigned, we're all in for a surprise.

This is a classic example of how even short range modeling can sometimes be incorrect and even a few hundred miles offset of an upper-atmospheric feature can be huge for a tropical cyclone.

Jerry just hit the jackpot. The upper ridge is building right over it while it slides under a region of decreasing/negligible shear.

000 WTNT45 KNHC 190240 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Jerry is gradually becoming better organized, with a small circular CDO and some banding features over its northwestern quadrant. Although the storm has some modest upper-level outflow, there is evidence of west-northwesterly winds undercutting the system just below the outflow layer. An upper-level cyclone is located a few hundred miles to the northwest of Jerry, as confirmed by synoptic surveillance observations taken recently by the NOAA G-IV jet. However, the global models suggest that this feature should remain far enough to the north of the tropical cyclone so that its shearing influence will be minimal in the short term. The current intensity estimate is 55 kt based on Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Since the environment is likely to be modestly conducive during the next day or so, strengthening is predicted for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the dynamical guidance shows some increase in shear, which should result in a leveling off of Jerry's intensity. Later in the forecast period, the global models predict a significant increase in shear, so some weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is close to the multi-model consensus. The storm remains on track with the motion continuing around 290/13 kt. There are no important changes to the track forecast from the previous advisory. Jerry should move along the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge over the next couple of days. In 3-5 days, the tropical cyclone is likely to turn northwest, north-northwest, and eventually north following a weakness in the ridge near 70-75W longitude. The official track forecast is close to the latest corrected multi-model consensus guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to become a hurricane before it moves close to the northern Leeward Islands Friday. Although the core of Jerry is currently expected to pass north of the islands, tropical-storm- force winds and locally heavy rainfall are possible, and tropical storm watches have been issued for a portion of this area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 15.4N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 18.5N 59.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 19.7N 62.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 22.4N 67.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 25.7N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 29.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

That's so far out there in advance, anything is possible. More concerned about the Northern Lesser Antilles for now because if we have a more intense and deeper vortex, it will be more susceptible to influence by the deeper 400 mb steering flow. Again, the more intense Jerry becomes in the short term, the more shift south in track. A bit opposite from typical steering (i.e. stronger more northerly) but it's due to positioning of the upper ridge.

Again, that MW pass is highly suggestive of an aligning vortex. If that is the case, that banding may very well be core formation in progress as well. Jerry may be about to undergo stronger intensification. I won't say rapid, but the jog south will have got it further away from the NE shear axis, which could allow it to organize more quickly. I certainly would not rule out RI though.

Recent MW pass prior to the most recent convective burst. Nice curved band wrapped around the north side of the MLC, also suggestive of LLC relocation in progress. Not as assured as recon data versus remote sensing, but it will do for now.

I have sneaking suspicion that the LLC has relocated south under the persistent vigorous MLC. An intense hot tower just went rotating up at that precise location. Also... BOOOOM!!! That's going to cause a pressure drop, Jerry.

This is actually the type of pattern to get a Mid-Atlantic impact. Though most systems may recurve, not every storm will. Still, getting multiple hurricanes to track north of the Antilles near and north of the Bahamas versus over-amped ridging and Caribbean runners, you increase the chance of enough ridging in place with one of these storms to make impacts on the eastern seaboard. Even Dorian was still an impact for the coastal Carolinas, even if it was mostly just a hit on the barriers. You have to look at the overall pattern in place. This pattern actually increases the odds of interaction versus a pattern that removes you entirely. 2004 and 2005 are prime examples. Crazy active years with many devestating impacts for everyone outside the Mid-Atlantic, but because of the pattern in place those years, everything went south through Florida, the Gulf or smashed the Caribbean. The Mid-Atlantic and New England were relegated to chirping crickets.

We just had one of the most powerful hurricanes on record obliterate the N. Bahamas. We also have numerous systems to track and more coming. Hardly seems boring to me but if by what you mean are major hurricane impacts on the CONUS, then by all means, please remain bored.

See my post above as to why. I've since edited.

There is a 400mb ridge imparting NE flow into TS Jerry by Humberto's presence right now. This is what Levi is focusing on and though it's not resulting in horrible mid-level shear, it may be enough to keep any RI phase in check, limiting Jerry to slow strengthening in the coming days. On the other hand, if Jerry's position versus said ridge offsets the shear somewhat, and Jerry becomes a strong hurricane much faster, the deep layer steering flow would potentially get the core into the Northern Lesser Antilles. So that does need to be watched. Edit: Note the EPS members representing a strong hurricane are further south. That's due to that upper mid-level influence if Jerry was to be a more intense and deeper vortex it would feel that somewhat. But it's more likely Jerry is much slower with development and any deep steering layer would not be as influential.

You seem puzzled. ENSO is essentially neutral but I'm not sure what it would have to do with Jerry holding or being a blip here so I'm not exactly sure how to respond.

TD10 is getting its act together. Strong convection going up around the center. Evident banding forming. Probably looking at Jerry in short order, but this may take off rather rapidly tomorrow.