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Windspeed

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  1. Windspeed
    That site is cancer on mobile. Full of spam and redirects.
  2. Windspeed
    Got an engagement and won't be able to post further warnings but it does look like things are picking up. Hopefully things don't digress into an outbreak and the discrete stuff transitions more linear swifly. Regardless, good luck to everyone. Here is the most recent warning on cell east of Philadelphia, MS, moving ENE:
  3. Windspeed
    Well-defined quasi-linear meso circulation on the strong line approaching MS/AL line moving north of Aberdeen, MS.
  4. Windspeed
    Discrete cells over central MS starting to get that look.
  5. Windspeed
    West of Booneville, MS:
  6. Windspeed
    First tornado warning of the event issued in Walker Co., Alabama:
  7. Windspeed
    Uptick QPF a bit further on the 00z. I hope this busts.
  8. Windspeed
    Beyond the flood gate / sluice that feeds the right exit channel, there are two concrete spillways we are discussing. We mentioned the wooded one about a mile south on the shale ridge line, but I don't think the adjacent concrete spillway has ever been topped either. Same situation for Watauga, though it just has the single spillway. Yes, the Oroville Dam emergancy. As bad as that was, fortunately the rain subsided and they were eventually blessed with a cfs discharge that was manageable before the dam was compromised. Well the '77 short term event dumped 8-10" on portions of the Clinch and Tug/Sand River Valleys. And certainly, no, we are not suggesting a similar event outcome anywhere in the same region over the next few weeks. But if modeling shifts a bit slightly north with some of those 6-9" outputs into the upper watershed, it could get sketchy. This whole off topic discussion by me was just born on the realization of what the upper Tennessee watershed can and cannot handle from a perspective record flood stage event. Again, that's why I mentioned Camille. Imagine it stalling out over SWVA instead of the Shenandoah Valley? Our region has never seen what is very possible given such a scenario. Again, apologies if I derailed OBS. Enjoy the sunshine while it lasts tomorrow morning.
  9. Windspeed
    I was actually referring to the concrete overflow spillways, not the flood gates. I know SoHo and Watagua do regular non-generating sluice releases for positive cfs oxygenating flow. But in reference to specific flood stage events, the reservoir overflowing into the concrete spillways is what I am referring to here. I'm not sure that has ever happened. I have hiked out to the wooded spillway many times. That particular one has a flows paths toward the River Bend area and I imagine such record levels would be quite destructive, beyond just the renowned trout fishing tourism located there. But I am trying to imagine a record 10-15" short term event off of Middle and South Forks and Watauga and what that would mean for reservoirs downstream. The runoff from Rogers-Holston Mtn for SoHo and Iron-Roan for Watagua probably would top those concrete emergency spillways with huge cfs rates.
  10. Windspeed
    I realize this is the OBS thread and we're getting way into historical territory here, but if folks don't mind the somewhat off topic with respect of future flooding events. Here is a PDF the '77 flooding event. This event was more severe on the Tug, Clinch and North Fork of the Holston than South Fork. This was a hyper active setup with southerly sub tropical jet. The pattern may've not even been that far off from what we're about to experience. https://www.weather.gov/media/rlx/April1977FloodsinAppalachianRegion.pdf Here is a brief summation of that event. I do not believe the spillways on the South Holston Dam and Watagua Dams were utilized as the high flow rate was far worse on North Fork, Clinch in SWVA and Tug in Kentucky where the 8-10" totals fell: I'm still digging for other events but I'm starting to think those spillways have never had to be utilized, unless there was some event in the 50s.
  11. Windspeed
    I recall hearing about it but I cannot remember when that occurred. I can't find any news associated with it online. While I'm at it, I've found little resources for the last time S. Holston and Watagua's spillways were even inundated / utilized. Certainly not in my lifetime. When Camille stalled in '69, it was further northeast of the New River and ECD; therefore, the Shenandoah River Valley and James River Watershed took the brunt of severe flooding. There were also some flooding events in the mid 70s that may have utilized the Holston and Watauga spillways. One of those floods severely impacted downtown Bristol from the Beaver and Clear Creek Reservoir storage facilities, though this is unrelated to Holston and Watauga Dams and their spillways, it may have been one of those events. The point is those lakes are designed hold a signficant amount of runoff. But it also goes to show just how rare a 10-15" or greater short term event is for our region.
  12. Windspeed
    The flood control dam systems of the Middle and South Fork Rivers of the Holston, including the Watagua River was originally designed to handle a stalled-out tropical low. All of these dams acting as flood water holding reservoirs as the staging event might reach extreme levels off of all the feeder streams up the US HWY 11 corridor, including but not limited to Walker Mtn., Mt. Rogers, Holston Mtn., Iron, Roan, etc., and somewhere between the 72-96 hr range of a 10-15 inch deluge. However, with Boone Dam under repairs, I would imagine Boone Lake handicaps control storage right now, and in the event of similar rainfall amounts in a short period of time, stress would need to be held up rivers at S. Holston and Watauga Dams and strong release for downstream holding at Cherokee Lake. Unsure about Fort Patrick Henry Dam in Kingsport's purpose beyond hydroelectric for a high flood stage event. Someone with better knowledge might want to contribute here, but I've been led to believe its purpose is less than that of flood control than of hydroelectric generation for Eastman. That all being said, while a student at ETSU several decades ago, the late Dr. Robert Peplies, a well-known geographer and remote sensing scientist in his own right, possessed some highly detailed TVA flood stage maps. Seeing a major spillway flood unfolding from Holston and Watagua Dams and what that would do to rivers downstream was quite eye-opening. We really don't ever want to see or witness a Camille-like deluge event rain itself out over the upper Tennessee Watershed in NE Tennessee / SWVA. I recall last year when there was uncertainty with Hurricane Florence's inland stall; catastrophic numbers were being modeled over some of those headwaters. The region lucked out again.
  13. Windspeed
    Try to imagine the hype on hand with 5-7 days global modeling coming into focus on something like the '93 Superstorm. It would be every bit on par with a Cat 5 coming into South Florida. Also considering how much more dependant people are on electrical heat / HVACs versus even 26 years ago. Most people still had wood stoves and fireplaces. Imagine facing two weeks without power as much of Appalachia and the Piedmont did following that event.
  14. Windspeed
    Incredible...
  15. Windspeed
    Tennessee came off a 5-7 season and managed to have a consensus top 15 recruiting class. More importantly it is a class that fills required player personnel for Pruitt's system. I'm am by no means saying Tennessee will be winning the SEC East this year, but they are definitely getting the pieces to be a real contender in a few years. Certainly think losing seasons like '17 and '18 are behind them.
  16. Windspeed
    Pretty decent wind gusts of 30-45 mph. Interestingly, we lost power for about 10 minutes just before the wind and rain arrived. It's back on now.
  17. Windspeed
    Construction in those parts take into account many feet of snow. If a blizzard like that hit the Tennessee Valley, it would be a national emergency due to the multitude of roof collapses. I love big snows, but I don't know about 4+ feet. lol... At any rate, Merry Christmas to all!
  18. Windspeed
    Nice big heavy flakes coming down in Bristol. Keeps this up for long and 3-4 inches looks very doable.
  19. Windspeed
    Had some big flakes coming down for about 30 minutes. Light stuff at the moment. But this back end feature is getting interesting. If banding sets up just right, we could get 2-3 inches of additional accumulation before noon.
  20. Windspeed
    My last measurement of 5 to 6" was actually an hour ago. So I went back outside and just got these for accuracy. I'd say an average of 7 inches at my house right now. One image from unobstructed lawn and another from hood on my jeep:
  21. Windspeed
    I'm measuring 5 to 6 inches so far outside. 2 to 3" of that is probably from all the heavy sleet/graupel that fell pre dawn. Moderate snow at the moment with brief periods of heavy when a strong band comes through. Looking at radar, 10+ may be a real possibility now. Perhaps even a foot. Trees are bending down. Worried we will lose power.
  22. Windspeed
    This looks like sleet mixed with freezing rain right now. It's 31° here. This could get ugly fast. I'm going to set my alarm and try to catch a little sleep. Hopefully this ZR is short lived.
  23. Windspeed
    Heavy sleet at 32°. No flakes at all. But when I say heavy sleet, I mean it. I don't remember ever seeing sleet come down that hard. Even as sleet, it's accumulating. The 925-850 mb is being annoying atm even as far east as Bristol.
  24. Windspeed
    The battle line is drawn and the trench is dug in deep. But all is not quiet on the western front....
  25. Windspeed
    925-850 column is probably and finally cooling on that side of Clinch now like had down here in Bristol. Enjoy the show!
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