Windspeed

40/70 Benchmark has released his Winter Outlook. He focuses more on Upper Mid-Atlantic and New England obviously but some of this thinking still applies to our region.

I put many hours of work into that fossil site as a student long before it was the gorgeous museum and education center that it is today. Probably even more hours sifting and picking through its fill sediment in a basement lab at ETSU. If anyone has yet to visit the Gray Fossil Site and Natural History Museum, please go. It's a wonderful experience, terrific people and so easily accessible. Also, if anyone is fascinated with the cave systems around here, Dr. Schubert is also brilliant in that respect.

HWRF has TC Gaja making landfall in India near Cat 4 intensity.

Still way early in modeling but if I had to anchor a call, I'd place confidence in higher range eastern Cumberland Plateau and SWVA for 3+ in. accumulations. Everything below 2k ft needs better modeling support at this point. But again, it's early.

12z ECMWF did crush SWVA and the I-81/I-77 interchange corridor. Pretty much the entire upper Northeast TN Valley Watershed at and above 2,000 ft, and all points North and East from Abingdon had great returns.

Classic tight QLCS tornado sig on that imbedded cell NE of Tupelo.

First tornado warning in the strong QLCS line just east of Clarksdale, MS.

I agree about the bad wording, but my point was that the majority of outlets essentially reported the same thing. The attributed scientist was using the island as a laboratory to study sea level rise. Obviously the island is underwater directly due to the storm's effects, but the particular scientist involved is stating that as sea level rises, similar events will be more commonplace. I.e. it won't take as much to overwhelm flat land on atolls and surface bed rock at sea level, especially when hit by storms. I'm not sure if that is why CNN focused on the climate change bit or due to scientist involved, but they weren't alone.

TOR still going. This cell may be quite the longtracker and not even in the best dynamics yet. Most of this early coverage is within the slight risk. Edit: More like may not be the longtracker. lol, not long after I made this post, the Natchitoches cell fell apart.

Supercell near Ringgold is impressive.

Possible first tornado in LA.

Latest HRRR around 11 PM EST / 10 PM CST.

Cloud coverage has broken over portions of MS and much of Tennessee. May aid in further destabilization. NE Mississippi and all the northern half of Alabama still looks thick as molasses though.

Yeah, the 00z ECMWF and the 12z even more so backed down on CAPE surface values and timing of surface-level backing winds. There is still strong low-level shear and 0-3km helicity but the mode looks to go quasi-linear early. The threat of discrete super cells from Northern MS to Nashville looks reduced versus runs up to a mere 24 hrs ago. I don't know if the ECMWF has necessarily been "dethroned" but it definitely had been more tornadic versus the GFS through yesterday. That doesn't mean we still won't see some intense action in the hatched region tonight, but it seems strong frontline winds and brief spinups were going to be the order of the night for the majority of the TN Valley regardless. Edit: I originally said the threat "looks nothing like" with regards to N MS to Nashville. That's a bit of hyperbole. I should have said the threat is reduced. There is still a threat for tornadoes, the modeling and forecasted storm mode just looks more linear and messy versus what the global ECMWF had been showing into early weekend runs.

This is probably why we won't see an upgrade to moderate until early tomorrow afternoon, if there is an upgrade at all. I suspect if high precipitation linear modes develop earlier, the tornado threat will be squashed, though certainly enough 0-3km helicity will be there for imbedded tornadoes to occur. The threat increases substantially if convection remains disorganized or holds off until late afternoon. We'll have to watch for any breaks in coverage by midday as 3-4 hrs of sunshine could really get things cranking by early evening for central MS up into SW Tennessee. It seems enough instability and low level shear will be there regardless for strong storms and frontline winds even if the mode is messy or linear.

Yeah, even when convection becomes more linear, there could easily be rotation and spinups within the severe line through dawn and mid morning.

ECMWF simulated reflectivity for Mon by 11pm CST also still looks discrete in nature:

Sat 12z ECMWF didn't back off the Monday evening/night severe threat from earlier runs. If anything, it increased 50-60 kts of low-level shear between 6pm to 2am from the northern half of MS into Kentucky. An area stretching from central MS to Nashville looks particularly concerning between 9pm and midnight. CAPE values are obviously lower/decreased over Middle Tennessee as the evening progresses, but bulk shear continues to increase. Hoping this stays more linear, however any discrete cells probably will be the rotating variety and some likely tornadic through the lower half of the MS Valley and western half of the TN Valley. Given the strong low-level jet, linear storm mode will likely have severe frontline winds as well as the line advances into the middle and eastern Valley. Images courtesy of weather.us.

To add more to handheld anemometers and storm chasers: Juston Drake and Simon Brewer managed to find an elevated sea-facing clearing on US Route 1 on Saddlebrunch Key when Hurricane Irma made landfall. In their attempts to hold the anemometer, their highest sample was 117 mph. But they were only able to hold steady enough to report it as a gust and the Kestrel likely did not accurately sample velocities over 100 mph. Still, just to manage the act of getting a measurement, they were in about as good a location as you could hope for and avoid getting pulverized by debris or inundated by surge. Now imagine trying to do something similar near beach front housing with infrastructure breaking down around you. If you are a chaser imbedded within legitimate Cat 4 winds, you're going to be behind a structure, sheltering in place or unfortunately caught in your vehicle with the windows up for safety. Otherwise, you're risking even greater injury to yourself versus being in the eyewall in the first place. Jim Edds has the wildest chase video I have ever seen during Super Typhoon Haiyan. It was all he could do to protect himself and still film. He still got freaked out and attempted shelter while building and vegetation debris began to blast around him. It would take intensive location planning and luck to be able to get an anemometer reading, and it's still a huge risk to take. Even if you managed to find a spot to sample, the best handhelds themselves are only rated to good accuracy in a low end major hurricane. Accurate highest sustained winds and wind gusts in high end tropical cyclones are rarely ever going to be recorded from high speed anemometers that are anchored/reinforced, not by a human shields holding devices that distort extreme winds.

Handheld anemometers are useless in extreme Cat 4 winds or above. You can't get accurate measurements with them besides dealing with airborne debris, sand and heavy-water laden wind gusts blasting you. That is rather unwise, even for a chaser. You need to have an anchored high speed instrument and hope it doesn't fail.

Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary 000 ABNT30 KNHC 011148 TWSAT Monthly Tropical Weather Summary NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Thu Nov 1 2018 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: October was above average in the Atlantic basin. Three named storms formed during the month, with a fourth (Leslie) beginning in September and carrying over into October. Three of these storms became hurricanes during the month, and one became a major hurricane. This compares to October averages of two named storms and one hurricane every year, and a major hurricane about every third year. In terms of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), which measures the combined strength and duration of tropical storms and hurricanes, activity in the Atlantic basin thus far in 2018 has been above normal. The season has already had 7 systems that were subtropical at some point in their lifetime, which eclipses the previous record of 5 in 1969. Reports on individual cyclones, when completed, are available at the National Hurricane Center website at www.hurricanes.gov/data/tcr/index.php?season=2018&basin=atl . Summary Table Name Dates Max Wind (mph) --------------------------------------------------- TS Alberto 25-31 May 65* H Beryl 4-15 Jul 80* H Chris 6-12 Jul 105 TS Debby 7- 9 Aug 50 TS Ernesto 15-18 Aug 45 MH Florence 31 Aug-17 Sep 140 TS Gordon 3- 7 Sep 70 H Helene 7-16 Sep 110 H Isaac 7-15 Sep 75 TS Joyce 12-18 Sep 45 TD Eleven 22-23 Sep 35 TS Kirk 22-28 Sep 60 H Leslie 23 Sep-13 Oct 90 MH Michael 7-12 Oct 155 TS Nadine 9-12 Oct 65 H Oscar 27-31 Oct 105 --------------------------------------------------- * Denotes a storm for which the post-storm analysis is complete. $$ Hurricane Specialist Unit Preliminary Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

Thanks, Jeff! No need to remind when you are merely being informative about what to expect weather-wise while people are out exercising their right as citizens. Hopefully no severe variety storms or high wind impact events, and crap rain is all anybody has to deal with that day.

Looks like 90 kts will be the peak for Oscar as the core is deforming. Should be slow but steady weakening, then transition to a powerful extratropical cyclone.

Oscar may be small, but not too shabby a hurricane. Wondering if the current westerly upper level flow is going to relax enough to allow Oscar to reach major status. I was confident of that last night. Now I am not so certain.