Windspeed
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Everything posted by Windspeed
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There's a 580 dm mid level trough / gyre extending west of the Cape Verdes. They do happen from time to time even in the EATL. But otherwise, the Azores heights have been doing their thing this year in typical fashion. Hence already having several MDR runners and strong 700 hPa wind bursts. In the first image, note the mid level trough. Also note 850 hPa vorticity field associated with TD10 riding northward and around. Regardless if TD10 gets named, it is doomed due to future encounter with marginal SSTs, but more importantly, the stable airmass about to blast off NW Africa due to, well, the Azores heights rebuilding and doing their thing again in a few days, i.e., nothing out of wack pattern-wise for any prolonged duration. Just a short-lived mid level PV trough about to get filled. See second image:
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What, nobody's going to create a TD10 thread?!.. /s [emoji854]
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This is not 93L but another wave behind it. 93L (a potential soon-to-be TC) moves NW somewhere west of the Verdes and dissipates. GFS wants to go gangbusters with the AEW behind it and grows a long-tracking deep MDR hurricane. Of note, the new GFS hasn't wanted to do jack squat with really any CV or MDR system up until now. Of course that is climatologically normal as typically this region doesn't start producing until mid August. Still...
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Uhm... This may get classified in short order. May not do anything crazy on a forecasted NW track into marginal waters and a more stable airmass. Still pretty suggestive ASCAT:
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The current AEW southeast of Cabo Verde has a vigorous and compact mid-level vortex. Though 92L was a larger and perhaps more impressive wave, it struggled maintaining any MCS with its mid level vort and failed to genesis before reaching a more hostile environment in the MDR. This wave on the other hand may do better entering the MDR if it can concentrate convection and close itself off at the surface. It certainly looks decent at the moment.
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Interestingly the new AEW near the CVs has decent model support for short-term TCG.
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In case anyone is curious, the next named "I" storm, Isaías, is pronounced "ee-sigh-ee-us". It's the Spanish name for Isaiah submitted by Argentina to the WMO.
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Our new Cape Verde disturbance has been designated Invest 92L.
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This is banter'ish, but is it really? lol...
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NHC isn't playing around with the large wave / disturbance near the Verdes. Developmental chances already up to 40%. We'll probably have a cherry tomorrow. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Gonzalo, located less than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center is also issuing advisories on Tropical Storm Hanna, located over the western Gulf of Mexico a little more more than 200 miles east of Corpus Christi, Texas. 1. A tropical wave located about 300 miles south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produced an area of cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance is expected move westward across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days, and some gradual development of this system is possible by early next week when it reaches the western tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. Forecaster Stewart
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The next AEW exiting the coast already had a large wave breaking sharp axis, but now with deep convection associated with a strong MCS embedded within its inverted surface trough. This is the wave the EPS and ECMWF op runs have been consistently developing the past few days into a formidable TC. I'd say based on appearance, that's looking ever more likely. It will still have some dry air established to its north in pockets across the subtropical Atlantic, but the easterly SAL burst is way out ahead of it and may not be as much a factor. Also, the moisture envelope with this wave is quite large. If TCG occurs in the MDR this weekend into early next week, this would be Isaias. The "I" storms are frequently in the historical record as being Cape Verde or deep MDR systems east of the Antilles, but generally well into September. Here we may very well experience an "I" storm in July of 2020, yet it will not break the mold. As the Euro would have it, our next TC might end up being a powerful long-tracking Cape Verde hurricane. Obviously, not to count chickens before they hatch as even if a very advanced AEW, it's still just a low-embedded wave that could flop and not get named. Nah, who am I kidding? This thing is a beast...
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Interesting thread on MJO phase 1 and 2 inter-seasonal as it relates to Atlantic Basin hurricane seasons. Note 2020...lol:
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Invest91L has been designated. This has a decent chance of TCG in the central-to-NW GOM as conditions become more favorable. At this time there is still mid-to-upper level shear imparting over the western portion of the wave axis. But that should shift more easterly into the forecast period and allow some time for a potential low to stack. Not certain of any significant intensification but regardless, moisture fetch into very warm GOM SSTs could bring flash flooding rains into LA/Texas.
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We may still have some bouts with a PV streamer, possible TUTT and some shear dependant on timing and positioning during the onset of an uptick in activity, aside from whatever 99L does here in the coming week.
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Well 10-14 days is when I thought things would kick up. The current surprise MDR system is just an example of how you can still get activity in a mediocre and typically unfavorable environment. Yes, the timing convectively-coupled Kelvin moving out of the EPAC into GOM/WCARIB next week could be critical to 99L (potential Gonzo), etc.; however, the middle-to-upper MDR is still quite hostile. 99L just got lucky with its very low latitude with TCG here. We'll see how it all plays out.
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New ASCAT. Vortex signature looks even better than last night. At this point, I'd be surprised TAFB didn't pull the trigger in the next hour.
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Looks like a depression to me. Especially with that ASCAT pass last night confirming the closed low. All it needed was sustained convection and a bit more organization. Interesting how even a quiet stretch with most meh environmental conditions can still produce surprises. But 99L is an especially strong wave born out of a favorable environmental bubble thanks to the WAM and ITCZ boundary. Looks like if things continue, we'll get a NS. Questions remain if it can become anything substantial in the long term / Caribbean. It still has to deal with a lot of unfavorable possibilities.
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Well then...
