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  1. OKLAHOMA OCTOBER TORNADO RECORD SET: MORE TO COME? Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0318 AM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... (Day 4) Models are trending toward better agreement and have demonstrated some run-to-run consistency regarding the evolution of a southern-stream shortwave trough forecast to amplify as it approaches the southern and central High Plains Saturday night. This feature will move through the central/southern Plains Sunday before reaching the middle/lower MS Valley Sunday evening. There are still some model differences, particularly with regard to the amplitude and speed of this system. Deepening lee low should be situated over central KS by 12Z Sunday with a trailing cold front extending southwestward into western TX. A warm front will stretch eastward from the low through northern KS and into central MO. Partially modified Gulf air will advect through the warm sector beneath steeper mid-level lapse rates resulting in moderate instability during the afternoon. A capping inversion will delay surface-based thunderstorm initiation until mid afternoon when storms will likely develop along the cold front across central eastern KS into eastern OK as well as farther east along the warm conveyor belt into the lower MS Valley. Vertical wind profiles will support organized storms including supercells with potential for all severe hazards. Given some lingering model differences, will only introduce 15% category for this outlook, but higher probabilities might be warranted with better model agreement in later updates. (Day 5) - A severe threat will probably persist as this feature continues into the TN Valley region Monday and possibly the Middle Atlantic region Tuesday. However, model difference become more substantial at this time frame, so will defer introduction of any categorical risk areas to possibly the next update. (Days 6-7) - Models including most ensemble members are in reasonable agreement regarding the approach of an upper trough into the Plains with robust moisture return toward the early and middle part of next week. If these trends continue, a severe risk area may be introduced for portions of the central and southern Plains in the next 4-8 outlook update.
  2. Click on chicklets and open more information.
  3. Slight shift north brings Tulsa into the Enhanced zone but NWS Tulsa still believes main threat will be SSW of Tulsa. Interesting what pasted is not what is showing on NWS Tulsa right now. They pulled tornado threat further north on the latest graphic.
  4. I think Thursday will be upgraded to a Moderate Risk for S. KS and N. OK. The upgrade would be for wind and hail but the 10% tornado hatch this morning may also be expanded.
  5. Looking at the NWS Tulsa Discussion today I think the better chance of a strong tornado may be SE/SC KS near the boundary. Will have to see where that is in the afternoon I think with no cap it will line up quickly and become a wind event. I also hate QLCS tornadoes as they are not going to be easy to see as everything is going to be in heavy precipitation with possible flash flooding issues. It is almost feeling like Derecho time. Tomorrow will finally signify a change in the upper level pattern, switching from the southerly flow aloft that has been providing a steady stream of clouds and moisture form the Gulf over a majority of the past two weeks. More westerly flow aloft will arrive Wednesday, which should aid in clearing out some of the clouds and providing the region with some sunshine. With the sunshine comes warming temperatures with highs climbing back to near and above average for the next few days. The main focus in this period continues to be the threat for some significant severe weather to affect the area Thursday afternoon and especially into the evening and overnight hours. Thursday afternoon will be warm and moist ahead of a frontal boundary that will be draped across southern Kansas during the afternoon hours. Large instability and little to no cap could lead to supercell development in the afternoon across northeast Oklahoma. All hazards would be possible with this initial development, although it is less certain that storms will fire in this area with the lack of large scale forcing in place. More likely is that storms will develop along the boundary in southern Kansas by late afternoon and grow upscale into a large convective complex that will then surge south across the area. A large swath of damaging wind gusts will be possible with this line. Additionally, low level shear will still be in place ahead of the line and the possibility for tornadoes to develop along the leading edge will be possible as well. continue to monitor the latest forecast updates for more details.
  6. Latest from NWS Tulsa for Thursday. Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 147 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261045- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 147 PM CDT Tue May 25 2021 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Limited. AREA...Far Southeast Oklahoma. ONSET...Ongoing...ending by early evening. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...Limited. AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. HEAVY RAIN. RISK...Limited. AREA...Southeast Oklahoma; Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing. DISCUSSION... There is a limited severe storm risk mainly across southeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Damaging winds are the main threat. Locally heavy rainfall fell across portions of southeast Oklahoma this afternoon, shifting into northwest Arkansas. Another round of heavy rain is possible with the afternoon storms over the same areas. Thus, there is limited flash flood potential thru early evening. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. THURSDAY...Severe Thunderstorm Potential...High Wind Potential...Heavy Rain Potential. FRIDAY thru MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Storm coverage on Wednesday will be isolated at best and during the afternoon, mainly across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Severe weather is not expected. A high impact weather event is expected from Thursday afternoon and night. Severe storms are expected to form ahead of a cool front across northeast Oklahoma Thursday afternoon and then grow into a complex and move into western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma Thursday night. The initial storms across northeast Oklahoma will pose the threat for tornadoes, very large hail to 2 inches in diameter or greater, and damaging winds. Due to the very unstable airmass expected to be in place, and the potential for a boundary to be draped across the region, there is potential for a strong tornado. After storms congeal into a complex, wider swaths of damaging winds will become the main severe concern. The severe threat on Friday afternoon will be confined mainly to southeast Oklahoma ahead of a cool front. While storm chances remain in the forecast thru the weekend and into early next week, severe weather is not expected during this time. Repeated heavy rainfall on top of saturated soils may lead to an increasing flood threat later this week in addition to the severe weather potential.
  7. The NWS Tulsa is backing way off on the severe weather next week up in the Tulsa area. Looks like timing and the system going further south really cut back the threat. NWS TULSA DISCUSSION... A few showers will linger across the area this morning as an upper system departs to the east, with the greatest coverage of showers across far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Skies will clear this afternoon, but breezy northerly winds will keep temperatures below the seasonal normals. Strong southerly winds return Sunday through Tuesday, which will result in temperatures warming to much above normal levels early next week. Recent trends in the data suggest a slower, more southerly track to the next storm system that will affect the area during the middle part of next week. While there certainly remains some severe weather potential with this system, heavy rainfall and flash flooding may eventually become a bigger concern given the slower southerly track. Several rounds of showers and storms will likely occur from late Tuesday night through Thursday before this system finally exits our area, bringing drier weather with near seasonable temperatures heading into next weekend. Adjusted the National Blend of Models pops and temperatures some with the midweek system to account for the slower timing, but otherwise stayed fairly close to the NBM forecast.
  8. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Apr 03 2021 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range model guidance is converging towards a scenario of a western U.S. trough evolving into a closed mid-level low over the central U.S. during the early half of the extended period. Severe potential will likely focus on Tuesday across KS and possibly OK near a dryline with storms developing eastward overnight. Uncertainty remains regarding moisture quality and capping concerns but hail/wind are the main threats with this activity. Higher confidence exists for organized severe storms on Wednesday from the Ozarks eastward to the MS Valley as high momentum flow overspreads a potential moderately unstable boundary layer centered on Arkansas. All hazards are possible. A separate bi-modal area of concern could develop farther north but there is low confidence in this scenario. Uncertainty increases by Thursday owing in part to model spread and potential consequential effects of appreciable convective overturning for areas farther east/southeast on Thursday (day 6). Model variability increases during the latter part of the extended period. Not much but something in a very dry period..... Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 446 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041030- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 446 PM CDT Sat Apr 3 2021 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...Limited. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma. ONSET...Ongoing...diminishing around sunset. FIRE WEATHER DANGER. RISK...Elevated. AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...Ongoing...improving around sunset. DISCUSSION... Winds gusting 15 to 25 mph will remain common through the early evening hours. These winds along with warm temperatures and low humidity values will continue to support high grassland fire spread rates across much of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Winds will decrease around sunset and fire weather conditions will improve. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Spotter Activation Not Expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. SUNDAY...High Fire Weather Potential. MONDAY...High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential. TUESDAY...Thunderstorm, High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential. WEDNESDAY...Strong to Severe Thunderstorm, High Fire Weather and High Wind Potential. THURSDAY...High Fire Weather Potential. FRIDAY...No Hazards. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Warm and windy conditions will elevate fire weather concerns this weekend and into much of next week. A storm system will move into the Plains Wednesday. A few strong to severe storms may develop across far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Wednesday afternoon.
  9. I don’t know how many EF3 tornadoes in a metro area you have worked but several EF 3 tornadoes is not crying wolf. Very significant threat with nighttime tornadoes irregardless of ultimate ratings.
  10. Looks like the SPC is slowly upping the chances for severe storms this week. May be the start of the spring season with some decent moisture return possible. We will have to watch this system as there could be some decent but limited storms. Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Mar 07 2021 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... The medium-range models start out the day 4 to 8 period in decent agreement. For Wednesday, the various solutions have an upper-level low near the coast of California and show southwest mid-level flow from the Desert Southwest northeastward across much of the central and eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to be located in the central Plains and Upper Midwest. Thunderstorms will be possible along the front from late Wednesday afternoon into the overnight period. The most likely corridor for convective development would along and ahead of the front, from northern sections of the southern Plains northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. With surface dewpoints forecast to be in the 50s F ahead of the front, instability should remain weak. However, deep-layer shear is forecast to strong, making a severe threat possible in spite of the weak instability. The potential for severe storms could be maximized in Oklahoma and eastern Kansas Wednesday night, where low-level flow and moisture are forecast to be the greatest. Southwest-mid-level flow is forecast to be maintained on Thursday from the south-central U.S. into to the northeastern states. At the surface by late Thursday afternoon, a cold front is forecast to be located from northern sections of the southern Plains northeastward into the southern Great Lakes. The ECMWF, GFS, UKMET and Canadian models are reasonably close with the front position at 00Z/Friday. The models suggest that convection will develop along the front from late Thursday afternoon and persist through the evening and into the overnight period. The strongest instability is forecast in the southern Plains while the strongest deep-layer shear is forecast much further northeast into the mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. In addition, many of the GEFS members have a shortwave ridge located in the south-central U.S. Thursday night. Although a severe threat could develop Thursday evening along and ahead of much of the front, the factors previously mentioned make the forecast magnitude of any severe threat highly uncertain. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, the medium-range models diverge sharply. Model solutions vary on the position and strength of the upper-level low across the western U.S. This will impact the forecast further to the east across the Great Plains and lower to mid Mississippi Valley. The models do show a moist airmass in place across the southern Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front is forecast from Oklahoma eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley but some solutions have the front further to the south than others, such as the ECMWF. Severe thunderstorm development could occur near the front Friday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability would be in the southern Plains suggesting the severe threat would be maximized from north Texas into Oklahoma. A threat area may need to be added in later outlooks, once the models show run-to-run consistency and certainty increases. On Saturday and Sunday, the models sharply diverge on the upper-level pattern. Some solutions move the upper-level eastward into the central states while others weaken the upper-level low. There is a large spread in GEFS members as well. If the upper-level low does move eastward into the Great Plains, a substantial severe threat would be possible ahead of the system Saturday afternoon and evening. The severe threat could redevelop further to the east along and ahead of a cold front on Sunday in the Mississippi Valley. This scenario will be dependent upon the upper-level low moving eastward into the central U.S. If the upper-level gradually weakens, as the ECMWF solution suggests, the severe threat in the south-central and southeastern U.S. would be much more localized. For the reasons previously stated, predictability is low for Saturday and Sunday.
  11. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 13 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely Widespread damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across the watch area through the afternoon and evening hours - with a few intense thunderstorms expected. Damaging winds are the most likely threat, but large hail and a few tornadoes are also possible from the most organized storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southwest of Hot Springs AR to 15 miles east northeast of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings.
  12. So I came across some analogs for the first couple of weeks of March. I still think we will have a event in the middle part of March this year. Past events show that we could see a strong event and we are seeing some good moisture return to the SE from the Gulf of Mexico and if we can get the return with a dynamic system we could see some early spring magic.
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