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Everything posted by Windspeed

  1. Ah hell, it's the tracking and analyzing any MDR system that's interesting when it comes to the slightest threat to land. Additionally there remains a window that Jerry could reintensify. Also Bermuda could still be impacted, which they just got a punch in the face from Humberto, so it remains worth watching.
  2. First recon pass was underwhelming to put it mildly. Looks like the impressive convective burst earlier was an intense MCS that was not coupled. Hence why it rotated WSW and decayed. If anything, it may've actually weakened the LLC more since it tilted the mid-level vort and shredded off.
  3. That mid-level vort looks like it might already be decaying. Recon is en route so we'll get some confirmation on structure soon enough.
  4. Ridiculous convective mass. If the vortex has realigned, we're all in for a surprise.
  5. This is a classic example of how even short range modeling can sometimes be incorrect and even a few hundred miles offset of an upper-atmospheric feature can be huge for a tropical cyclone.
  6. Jerry just hit the jackpot. The upper ridge is building right over it while it slides under a region of decreasing/negligible shear.
  7. The Beaumont and Port Aurthur region east of Houston has been hit hard and often the past two decades. Many people there will now have lost everything yet again. Discouraging to even want to remain. I'd imagine the urge to rebuild wears thin after the FOURTH time in 18 years.
  8. These are a few hours old but they really do well to explain what's been going on in a mesoscale atmospheric evolution the past 24 hrs.
  9. SW side of Houston is getting hammered. Sugar Land to Bellaire has over 9 inches in the past two hours alone. Hopefully the boundary keeps pushing south to ease off these rates.
  10. It'll be retired. The 25" totals coverage region is now huge and flooding in more populated communities. The name Imelda is history.
  11. To see more you will have to go here: Click on Dorian, navigate and zoom in on gis map. Direct linking image directory will not not work and the server will not grant permission. You must use map to obtain them.
  12. Satellite before and after imagery of Abaco being posted in this thread chain:
  13. Humberto's sting jet on the SW side of the circulation is really ripping. You can see it in visible with the hazy clearing and rapidly moving low-level cumulus. Hopefully there aren't any ships anywhere near this.
  14. The issue and more immediate concern for Houston is that it appears the boundary has drifted south, or at least expanded south and backed west, placing the metro right under the crosshairs. Additionally everything west of that boundery is not under cloudcover, so daytime heating destabilizes the moist airmass further. I don't imagine this event will end until Imelda's low gains some latitude further north lifting or weakening the atmospheric dynamics at play here. The boundary may even drift a bit further south, sit there, then begin pulling back north again over the same areas tonight. In other words, it's going to be a rough afternoon through overnight hours into tomorrow.
  15. That cloud feature is the boundary where moist NW GOM low-level southerly flow collides with a more stable airmass in the low-to-mid level westerly flow around Imelda's southern circulation. Saturated airmass is immediately being lifted, turns and gets convected at a 90° angle feeding into the mesoconvective system (MCS). The same thing is happening within the MCS itself as well, but to the west it takes time for cells to develop within the initial lifting airmass. But those cells not only mature but continue growing without dissipation until far east into LA. This is a classic setup of a slow moving low in combination with a saturated airmass and high MLCAPE values that meet at a boundary layer. Only it is amplified many times worse due to the boundary not moving much and dumping historical rainfall rates over the same areas.
  16. Not to downplay the ongoing devestating flooding now just north to east of Houston but the inflow boundary into the MCS is slowly creeping southward towards the metro. We may've been lulled into a false sense of security that Houston was going to escape this event, but It doesn't look like the setup is relenting for now; if the convective boundary lags with such intense hourly rates, they're going to get hit hard this afternoon into the evening. Edit: Latest radar tells the tale...
  17. Unfortunately this intense convective boundary does not appear to be ending anytime soon. It may even back-build over greater Houston by mid day. Hopefully that does not pan out, regardless extreme life-threatening flooding should continue into Thursday evening for coastal ETX:
  18. You can actually see the convergent low-level moisture feed off the NW GOM rushing into the intense convective boundary layer on radar.
  19. Ooops, though even @ 175 kts Pat would have held the record regardless. Jeez 185 kts sustained is just insane. Hell, Dorian's 160 kts is insane. As for the school, I'm glad you moved man. Don't second guess safety when all hell is breaking lose. If you go against your gut in situations as dangerous as that, you may end up critically injured or dead. You made the right choice.