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Everything posted by Hoosier

  1. Storm is even more dragged out on the Canadian.
  2. Hopefully 00z runs don't throw a curveball (or it's a good one if they do) but am currently leaning toward a total of 4-6" around here. I'm not sure why since everything has seemingly underachieved imby and this storm is going to be plagued with temp issues. But to be clear, I don't expect to actually see 6" on the ground and maybe not even 4". Other than the slop aspect, it should be a pretty picturesque snow on the trees.
  3. Couple things on the 00z NAM... Stronger system which wraps in some warmer air Look how far west it still is at 12z Sat
  4. 00z NAM is pretty diggy with the upper level low so far.
  5. Was just thinking about how screwed the city would be in a marginal setup like this if it were earlier in the season. Flow is pretty much offshore until Friday but then when it does turn onshore on Friday, it is not that strong and shoreline temp is now down to 33 and the crib is all the way down to 29. Everybody is going to struggle to accumulate at times in this setup with how marginal it is but shouldn't end up with a big inland to lakeside gradient.
  6. Nasty. The people that are near or above average snowfall to date should feel fortunate.
  7. There really isn't a compelling reason to believe the GFS thermal profiles. Always have to be skeptical of outliers... maybe a little less so if it's the ECMWF as the outlier but that is not the case this time. What kind of track record does this upgraded GFS have to put a lot of faith in it? Like you said, it doesn't mean the snowier models are going to nail amounts either because we are still dealing with questionable 2m temps. This discrepancy with the temps aloft has been interesting to watch. I have never been more curious to look at actual observed 925 mb temps in the coming days lol
  8. Comparison of 925 mb temps at 72 hours. The 925 mb low is basically in the same spot on both models, but there is the noticeable difference in temps.
  9. Good point. All it would take is some very minor low level cooling for the GFS to suddenly spit out quite a bit more snow.
  10. The COD precip type map has snow in Chicago. Kinda odd. Forecast soundings have a layer just off the surface around 0C so maybe that is screwing with the precip type.
  11. Those are cool. Have seen those around Gary before.
  12. Mentioned earlier about the limited diurnal temp swings. The 18z GFS is downright preposterous in that regard. Verbatim on the 2m temp plots, it has ORD between 30-35 degrees for 162 consecutive hours during/after the storm. That seems almost impossible to keep temps in that tight of a range for that long.
  13. Some nice hits in there. Just have to factor in a melting/compaction element which means that depths probably won't be as high as what falls.
  14. Hope something like this doesn't verify. The slowing eastward progression of precip is plausible though given the upper ridging that has to be dislodged. Just a question of where that happens.
  15. That was actually one of the CIPS analogs last time I checked. Seriously.
  16. Forget the wsw and consider yourself lucky if there's an advisory with how prolonged this is.
  17. The sheer duration of this thing almost ensures a 3-6"/4-8" type area. Long duration events are better when the thermal profiles aren't marginal though.
  18. Hard to say for sure since the evolution is a bit odd but not inconceivable that it could snow for the better part of 48 hours in some places.
  19. That is stretching it lol. Had about a half inch when I left this morning. Been snowing lightly since then so should at least eclipse the 1" mark. Notable thing in this winter.
  20. Might as well throw out the HRRR. Run after run initializes too far east with the band. Not sure if advisory has/will be met in Porter county. Heavier echoes now into far northeastern Lake.
  21. Winds have flipped offshore in southwest MI and also turned northeast around Michigan City. Land breeze in action.