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NorthHillsWx

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Everything posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. It definitely was drier overall… But it was less amped, less mixing, and a lot of us started with this mornings euro output of 2-3 inches of sleet and are now looking at 5-8 inches of snow. Definitely trends to watch but imo it was playing catch up to some of the other solutions that have been less amped all day.
  2. I mean, we’re talking about consecutive days now of model runs and if you’re in central NC-SE Virginia you have to be feeling pretty good right now. Western areas, I get the concern. Just make sure you’re posting what area when making blanket statements about trends looking bad or models looking dry bc there is a large, snow deprived chunk of this forum that continues to look really really good for a moderate snowstorm at this point
  3. Keep in mind ICON doesn’t show sleet or freezing rain on this depiction but it’s pretty similar to the Euro… Has triangle staying pure snow tho!
  4. Nope, you had your storm. Share some with your brethren further east
  5. I love how in Raleigh we literally do better 99 times out of 100 with weaker, slider type systems than blockbuster lows like last weekend. Excited for this one, perfect setup for us and the freezing line is nowhere near wake county
  6. Don’t think anyone thought they were bad for central NC
  7. Agreed. We’re in a great spot given all the recent runs except the super suppressed Canadian solution from 12z
  8. TBH- for once in recent memory I feel like the the Triangle is in a good spot
  9. ***From Raleigh Perspective*** Dear lord, please deliver the 12z GFS prediction as depicted on the model. A weak system with no mixing in Raleigh and long duration of light snow Friday/Saturday. We are not greedy folks and will sacrifice a major storm with juiced QPF for this exact storm to not have mixing issues. Thank you lord, Amen
  10. Anyway you slice the models today: 1) front passes Thursday with rain, possibly mixing with snow at end 2) relative lull Friday morning with front stalled off coast but precip builds back into cold air with wintry mix breaking out 3) some form of coastal development takes place Friday. More Amped = more precip, further north and west precipitation, stronger warm nose, better for upstate, Triad, Virginia. Less amped = less precipitation, less coverage away from coast, less ice threat east 4) ALL MODELING IS COLD AT SURFACE. Most of NC and a lot of SC will stay below freezing through the event In my opinion, blend the models as seen now and you end up with an expansive area of sleet/snow with light to moderate accumulation, a strip of pure snow but less moisture NW of there, and an area that needs to be watched for freezing rain from the SC midlands to the NC coastal plain. Many more details but that’s my oversimplified take on modeling today
  11. Long range NAM but that’s a big time storm growing at the end of the run. Also- the duration of this even looks amazing
  12. I’ll take anything as long as it stays below freezing once the wintry precipitation starts and that there is enough snow or sleet to shovel. This looks like a good bet to get 1-3” of snow or sleet in the triangle with brutally cold temps. Honestly I don’t care if it’s just sleet 2” of sleet is a good storm to me. Models certainly showing a warm nose but steadfast on frigid surface temps. Keep the freezing rain out and this (and with these profiles it looks like an expansive sleet storm) will be a great storm regardless of total snowfall. Models are trending towards this type of storm and I’m perfectly ok with that!
  13. HRRR brings that band through the triangle. A dusting would be a consolation prize
  14. Picked up 1.70” today for a mtd total of 6.53.” Really making our dry fall seem even more distant. High of 37.4 (though this may not be correct as my weather station was coated in ice most of the day) and a low of 25.7
  15. Above freezing now, 32.9. Finished with a coating of snow and sleet and at 0.25” of ice, maybe a hair more
  16. Duke outages going to 110,000 now and rising rapidly
  17. Starting to hear some popping in the neighborhood… 30.8 with freezing rain. Hoping we don’t go dark. I’d say we’re at .25” so definitely looking like we’re on track for more than forecast
  18. Outside of the front end thump being heavier than expected to the tune of an inch or two extra snow for a few upstate counties, has the NAM been that bad with this storm? Seems to have nailed it for areas east of 85 so far
  19. Well can officially say my ground was whitened this year. All sleet now, roads actually slushy. Temp down to 27.4
  20. 50/50 snow sleet for me. Trending towards sleet started as all snow. 27.9, crazy how fast we’re going to rocket above freezing
  21. The mix line on CC looks like it settled south when rates/cooling took over but may be working back north and west now. Definitely going to walk the line for the 85 folks in the upstate next few hours but if you can keep snow it will certainly pile up fast with those rates and returns incoming. That’s a juiced system
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