NorthHillsWx

Per 0z GFS, we reach freezing exactly 1 night through the entire run during this backloaded Nino February. Then we are firmly into spring

We need a volcano or maybe even an asteroid strike to break this pattern

it’s crazy to think that if we don’t get snow before Jan 22 of next year, most on this board will have gone a full 3 years without measurable snow. With our last pre-Jan snow being 2018, odds are highly suggestive that will be tested

As for global warming, sea surface temps are smashing records every year in the Atlantic. Blame it on what you want but that’s the truth. I think that impacts 2 things: 1) SER becomes semi-permanent 2) Thermals with coastal storms are frequently messed up more so than past analogs for similar tracks would indicate Take this weeks storm in New England. It it literally passing over the 40/70 benchmark in their peak climo, and thermals in NYC and most coastal areas are going to struggle. Perfect track New England systems shouldn’t struggle that much, though thankfully for them, the system may be dynamic enough to overcome poor lower levels

I think the biggest issue is a simple one, we haven’t been able to lock in a favorable HP at all. The NS keeps obliterating every strong high that tries to establish itself regardless of blocking. Believe it or not, we don’t need pure arctic air to snow or get wintry wx east of the mountains. CAD has become a thing of the past, and those storms are our most frequent. Yes we are all searching for the miller A unicorn without thermal issues, but the vast majority of our wintry weather historically has come from miller B mixed bags and overrunning events. Pure Arctic air looks good on paper and long range models but it usually leads to suppression or transient cold shots without a New England high established

Wish there was a “love” button on the reactions. Finally enough light to do something after work. Currently 61 and actually pretty nice out. About a quarter inch of rain in the bucket from earlier

Glad everyone got outside yesterday

It’s another early spring across the triangle. Todays mid 70’s with the rain over next couple days will throw it into overdrive

We shot up to 77.2 which is our warmest temp to date for the year

That was a more of IMBY comment. I seriously discredited the Florida solutions and never once thought that was realistic. For NC, it was paltry. If we’re talking about the region as a whole, yes you could find a solid number showing wintry precipitation somewhere but it seemed either to be overly suppressed or too warm with little in between solutions which is why I favored the latter. There didn’t seem to be a path to victory HERE that was well advertised by a large % of ensemble members

Great question, I don’t know. Ensembles as you know are variable as always and you clearly have model tendencies but they’ve been pretty consistent in showing limited winter wx opportunities throughout the winter. I’d actually say ops this season have been more excited for some fantasy storms than you’d expect looking at their ensemble charts

Agreed. I pointed holes in this pattern as soon as it reached ensemble range and nothing was showing. It was the PUSU phase. I was told it was too volatile for models or too much energy was flying around to have any clue what was going to happen. Weeklies are THE WORST forecast tool we have yet some kept pointing to them over ensembles

For bashing of this winter

I started a thread for bashing of this winter. Let the discussion begin

With winter on the ropes and the main threads descending into climate change discussions, finger pointing and long range Icon hope, let’s discuss how this winter failed so miserably. Was it poor model performance, over-hyping ENSO, bad luck, climate change, reliance on analogs or some combination of everything? Let’s dive in and leave the main board for actual forecast discussion and the sanitarium for, well, the folks who need it. What better time to discuss a winter failure than on February 10 while it feels like 80 outside and our “best look in years” collapsed in 18 hours of disastrous model runs!

You have completed the 5 stages of winter grief over the last 24 hours. Congrats!

While it’s not all climate change, throwing out places that have a buffer and don’t struggle to get to freezing for snow as evidence is a poor argument. If you were 20 degrees and now you’re 25 it doesn’t matter. When we struggle to get to 32-34 for snow as is, it’s a much bigger deal even if you’re a degree or two warmer

Yep I’m taking my daughter to the farm right now. Spring has sprung

We might push 80 today if we keep the sun. Already a humid 70 out at 11

And to take it a step further bc the bar for being “measurable” is so small, if you add up RDUs cumulative TOTAL snow over the last 6 years (assuming this year is 0.00”) then the total amount from that entire time period is right around our yearly average. So even though we did have measurable snow in 4 of those 6 years, the amounts were tiny

I may be wrong but I think if we don’t get snow before January next year this will be the longest stretch in recorded history without measurable snow for a lot of folks

I don’t ever want another El Niño winter ever. Having to wait until March 28th for my backloaded season is testing my patience! Bring on La Niña, I’m sure we’ll win early and win often then!

I’m taking the kids out to the farm today, perfect day to get out before the rain

You see the analog years and we just keep setting new precedents for failure. A part of climate change that may lock us out of consistent winter weather in the future may be the supercharged northern stream. Going back to La Niña this year is going to sting when winter forecasts come out this season and pile it up with the previous closing in on a decade winters of failure and a trend is emerging

This thread offers more accurate forecasts than the actual forecasting thread