NorthHillsWx

HWRF loves it. Brings it to cat 3. Also makes a direct hit on Bermuda

Made to to 86.4 today which was one of the warmest days this month! Also picked up 0.08” from a stray shower that ends the short rainless stretch and brings the monthly total to 9.14”

First time it’s come under our house since Isabel in 2003

Family in nags head is reporting serious overwash right now, worst of the storm and worst in years. Not a non-event.

Erin now has an ACE of 30 with at least 24 hours left as a hurricane

This August has been incredible. Though there was a high humidity stretch with all the rain, we still haven’t broken 90, RDU cracked it once (barely) and it now looks LIKELY we will make it through the month of August with zero 90-degree days. I honestly don’t know if that has ever happened in my lifetime. Sure RDU won’t report a zero 90 August but this has to be one of the coolest August’s in RDU history

Family at nags head reports no overwash and very breezy conditions. Seems like highway 12 south of Oregon inlet took a beating like usual.

Waves look pretty damn huge in Atlantic beach right now https://www.oceananapier.com/fishing-pier

It hasn’t strengthened at all based on that first pass. Winds probably still a bit generous. Think the opportunity to regain 3 intensity is rapidly fading. It does appear to be kicking east some. Based on buoy reports between the storm and hatteras I’m not certain tropical storm force wind will make it to land. I think the models may have overdone the western extent of TS force winds somewhat really unimpressive buoy reports anywhere near the coast

Yes in the discussion it states they used the max winds found in the outer eyewall and an increased reduction given where they were but SFMR winds in that same area were way lower, like 60 kts. Definitely an interesting storm and a ton of wind energy aloft. This thing is exploding in diameter too. We are so lucky this is going ots this storm would be a prolific surge producer and inland wind issue if it was heading towards the coast

Little surprised they bumped winds to 95 kts given highest SFMR winds were around 75 kts and strongest FL winds were almost 100 miles from center

The “forbidden cinnamon roll” just made me spit up my coffee. I’m saving that term for future use

Recon reveals what most have been saying- a very broad system without a sharp inner core. Highest FL winds again well away from center and SFMR readings appear to show a lack of efficient mixing of winds to surface. Though the sat appearance has improved and pressure falls continue, this likely isn’t generating cat 2 winds at this juncture, just a large area of 60-75kt wind

Check out the lighting aligning with the dry slot. Notice there isn’t any around the core. Incredible shot!

That dry air entrainment will cap any potential strengthening but with shear low and pressure falls this thing is continuing to grow in size

To be quite honest, other than Erin not being an annular cat 5 truck tire monster like Isabel, there are a lot of similarities. Its post-peak progression has been about the same and other than slamming headfirst into obx it’s swinging wide right by 150 miles. Current structure reminds me of Isabel a lot when it came into NC

I think it’s earlier collapse was much more drastic than anyone expected but given improving shear and very high ocean temps over its path the next few days I believe it recovers back to a healthy 2. I am convinced it weakened to a 1 this morning so I’d consider reaching its operational intensity as restrengthening lol

That is a gutted storm right there. Nothing really showed that happening

As others have said, I’m a little surprised that model support has waned on this system. It seemed to be in a moist pocket and shear seemed manageable. I do wonder if models are now catching onto the pronounced outflow from Erin as a source of shear that affects this system. It could be one that doesn’t get going until Erin moves away. Also, guidance has continued to trend more towards this system moving north through the same break Erin is traveling through. The chances of an east coast impact seem to be diminishing

Definitely wrapping up shear. Winds have responded on the last leg of recon, more supportive of a borderline cat 2.

I am curious as well. Given the current state and broad expanding wind field I would be SHOCKED if this strengthened significantly. That being said pressure falls might occur without winds coming up terribly much given the broad circulation. I’d say at this point a borderline cat 3 would be the ceiling but I’d lean more towards a Isabel-like cat 2

Second pass actually was less impressive than first. FL winds never surpassed 85 kts and pressure was a few ticks higher. This is a cat 1

Also- pressure up to 960

Recon had max FL winds of only around 85 kts we will see what this pass shows but man this thing is on life support as a cat 2 at the moment

I’ve gotta say I did not expect the system to get sheared apart to this degree. It looks like about 15-20kts of analyzed shear which certainly would be an inhibiting factor but shouldn’t be shredding it to the point that half the circulation is now exposed. There is no way this system is still a major and unless that shear relaxes it will continue to weaken because it does not look healthy at all. EDIT: I missed the 8 am where it was brought down to cat 2. 95 kts still seems generous based on satellite id wager it is closer to 85 kts at this time given 1/2 of the eye is now exposed