NorthHillsWx

I know, I missed the 2003 storm and “snowmaggedon” both by a year! That sleet storm was one of the wildest winter storms I’ve ever seen though. I think it was 6-7” of pure sleet and turned into a glacier that stuck around through March There was another storm, can’t remember the year, but we were supposed to get rain, then they issued an advisory for 1-3” but it was still supposed to switch to rain early, then the day of it just kept snowing aggregates and they upped us to a warning after we had probably 6” otg. Idk what the final tally was but it was super exciting and unexpected

I lived in DC 2004-2008 and can tell you no matter what they say, they did not have Raleigh’s climo. We had multiple snows every year, clipper snows, two really big snows and the most sleet I’ve ever seen from a storm.

Weeds have sprung.

Models never surprise us with snow. Maybe 10+ years ago but it’s a one-way street now

Im in the camp that would perform ritualistic dances or maybe even an animal sacrifice for it to snow again

The fact we had the numbers we had last year in spite of an Nino was impressive. I wouldn’t say it acted like a Nina, shear was in places you’d expect towards the end of the season in a Nino and storm tracks were very Nino like

It cannot be understated how bad this hurricane season could be with the base state of the Atlantic and La Niña forecast to come back.

In the last 6 years I think one cold period was accurately modeled at range, last years Christmas cold outbreak.

When making long range forecasts south of buffalo New York, just lean heavily on snowless and above average, even if models suggest otherwise. Do not predict cold or wintry chances unless they are within 6 days of the event. You’ll be better than 90% of the Mets on twitter and TV

Maybe one day my kids will see it snow in Raleigh. It’s about like asking it to snow in Jacksonville Florida now

It definitely tries. Continuing issue (besides suppression) is going to be that NS low messing up BL. At this point root for it to be amped and trend north. We’re in the phase of the season that it would take a miracle so that’s what we need!

Some of the wildest last minute jumps you’ll ever see from models. I almost feel bad for them… almost…

That is absurd.

Also- to see how poorly this thing was modeled, look at rainfall forecasts for here today. What looked locked in as an all-day washout has resulted in virtually no rain at all thus far. This thing went WAY south

It’s been full blown meltdown mode on the NE page. I can’t even imagine losing a foot + inside 24 hours and come away with nothing. This page wouldn’t react well

Yes and no. Northern areas should still be cold enough for snow and long lasting snow. Last year the upper NW and dakotas set records. This year it’s been anemic there bc it’s been so dry. The lack of New England snow to me is more pattern related than it simply being too warm. Check the cold outbreak west of the mountains this year. That was able to maintain itself in the Deep South despite little to no snow cover in the upper MW. Now there are times where we 100% benefit from existing snowpack to our north, say down to Pennsylvania, especially for borderline in-situ damming events. But I don’t think the recent lack of source region (NE away from coastline and Canada) snowpack is totally influenced by climate change

Imo the euro develops the wrong wave. I like the trailing energy I spoke about above. Pretty big differences in timing and wave progression but good to see some coldish air involved again

If anyone’s in need for some entertainment today, head to the New England forum. They have had warnings posted for up to 12-18” since yesterday and the latest EURO completely blanks a lot of those areas. Total meltdown mode up there

Yep. Only chance is for something with perfect timing. I like the Canadians evolution with the lobe of energy left behind and a separate cleaner wave trailing a little behind what the GFS shows. That’s the only way we win bc the “cold” will be transient and a delayed system will have more chance to interact with that very brief window. Two things to watch for the 19-20th time period: 1) can the southern stream energy consolidate quicker and possibly become more amped/further north 2) can the souther stream energy hold back after the initial wave moves through on roughly the 18th. We need that NS low to pass on by for a transient HP to build into NE or it rains. Good news from both runs of GFS and Canadian shows a stronger hp with colder/drier air in our source region. I actually don’t hate the placement of the high on either. If we notice a sharper trough trailing back in Texas in subsequent runs, I think the odds of something interesting to track will increase, assuming the timing noted above stays the same. This is a very very low chance of success but there are players we need on the field (cold (just enough), southern stream energy) so we cannot completely discredit it at this time I am trying to stay positive people, the last few days have really been frustrating but I do enjoy tracking weather and to many on this forums credit, there is at least something to track in the timeframe we have been watching

Canadian is very very close on the 20th

Add to that- with the NS low moving out sooner, it actually shows a 1031 HP in a favorable location with CAD signature showing. This isn’t a terrible look at range

Small changes but actually positive in the broader scale: low is slightly more amped, less suppression, GLL slides by sooner allowing better thermals. Still not going to cut it but does look slightly better

Probably won’t matter much but GFS is much more consolidated with the southern stream energy over Texas this run

While I agree, that period around last Christmas qualifies as a true pattern change. We just got unlucky there, but a week mostly below freezing is impressive for anywhere in the Carolina’s. This season didn’t feature anything I would consider to be a pattern change. The “cold blast” in January was essentially a frontal passage that flipped right back to AN, there was transient cold nothing locked in. You bring up a good point though: what is a pattern change? What are the minimum qualifications to say the pattern has changed or would you consider this January just a cold snap within the same pattern we were stuck in? I lean the latter. For me, a pattern change needs these qualifications: 1) altered H5 orientation across country 2) retention or addition of SER 3) either strengthening or weakening of STJ and/or NS You can throw in blocking, the state of the PAC, MJO, or many other indices but imo those 3 variables dictate sensible weather here and must all be altered to constitute a pattern “change” vs a blip within a set pattern. I don’t know if you can throw a time qualifier in there as well, such as H5 state must last at least 72 hours or something along those lines, but I could hear that argument as well

Gotta say, Brad P kinda nailed this period. He was one of the only Mets to say this time period wasn’t going to work out well in advance while Most were hyping a pattern change. Not sure if he just got lucky or not but emphatically saying this period wouldn’t produce winter weather was a good call at range in hindsight