NorthHillsWx

Humberto looks poised for takeoff

One other note that I’ve seen on recent modeling suggests a more favorable pattern for strengthening with a divergent flow aloft and less dry air. Actually somewhat concerned this could be a strong hurricane now. So much has changed over last couple days

Really thinking the odds of this affecting the SE coast are increasing. A weaker Humberto/further separation increases risk further. If Humberto wasn’t there this is going into coast. Still a lot on the table and until a center forms there isn’t a clear solution but the trend on ensembles is clear and we’re seeing ops follow suite. Everyone from northern Florida to the OBX needs to be alert

Still stuck at 0.16” for the month

6z GFS slams the storm into the Carolina’s as a hurricane

High of 93.7 yesterday. Honestly I thought we were done with this

If you’re on the coast from Florida to NC I would be following this closely and make sure you have the ability to prepare if needed. This forecast is as uncertain as it gets relating to a tropical cyclone

I said this yesterday and it holds just as true today but what a crazy TC setup. Some of these model solutions don’t even seem possible with twin strong hurricanes dancing around each other. EPS is concerning as are hurricane models but that being said given the proximity to Humberto, j wouldn’t put stock in ANYTHING until we have a coc and even then the evolution of Humberto will be critical

It looks like a TD already. Modeling is catching up, hurricane models are very aggressive. Also I feel very strongly this wave is a fish storm. East coast surfers are having a hell of a summer

https://x.com/icyclone/status/1970838221933437098?s=46&t=NyKvXvI1o-sJQb-68mmo4g

It was very likely right at cat 3

Agreed! The balancing act between systems will be fascinating to watch

I take back what I said, I didn’t realize he would chase into China. Looks strongly like he got the eye of a likely still major storm. Good for him this was a wild chase I can’t wait to see his videos

Azores now under a hurricane warning. I wish someone was chasing there this should be a solid impact especially for a location that doesn’t really deal with many hurricanes

Latest HWRF takes a cat 3 into NC from 94L

That 18z Euro run is nuts

Hurricane watch issued for the Azores

As complicated a tropical development setup as you’ll ever see. Multiple competing waves, ULL progression, SE trough, a cat 4 hurricane nearby… Good luck making a call and standing on it with this setup

I said this a few days ago. Could be a significant storm for a spot that doesn’t see them often

Wet pattern looks to develop end of the week and depending on any possible tropical system we could see some hefty rainfall totals into next week. Check the Euro, over 1 foot for much of NC. That being said, amounts could be drastically lower if the lead wave fails to develop or stays offshore

Really interesting forecast with our cherry and our orange. Several possibilities with regards to storm formation, intensity, which waves becomes dominant, and potential land impacts. The only real positive is if anything develops from the Orange and moved to the coast the environment looks prohibitive for significant strengthening with a lot of continental dry air and an ULL over the SE but I could definitely see a tropical storm impact if that waves gets going as that ULL could try to pull it westward. The cherry would likely remain ots if it develops. I think the evolution of each individual wave will impact the outcome of the other as they are not far apart and we may actually see a merger. Very volatile atmosphere right now with very low model consensus but I am becoming confident we get a storm between the two

I believe the switch in the northern hemisphere has just flipped

I think it’s a hurricane based on recon but sat presentation has degraded since the plane left. Not sure what happens with the system pretty huge spread in intensity guidance

For what it’s worth all ops are very active in the central Atlantic over the next 2 weeks

Ragasa is looking mean this morning. I’m shocked Josh is chasing this, looks like it is traveling between the uprights in terms of splitting the populated islands in the area