NorthHillsWx

Wow optimal radiational cooling last night! When I went to bed I didn't know if we'd hit freezing but checked my temp gauge this morning and we bottomed out at 25! Currently 36 and a WINTER-like feel outside, forgot what that was like... Heading to the farm today looks like a perfect day for it!

All Hail King NAM with this system! Like eyewall said, this storm isn't going to help us Raleigh peeps, but I am certainly living vicariously through you N Ga and upstate folks today. Traffic cams in NW Ga look like a solid snow event incoming. Man it's nice to see a mood change around this board, even if it doesn't help my neck of the woods

From ATL: Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 305 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2020 . SHORT TERM /Tonight through Saturday Night/... Mostly cloudy skies expected to break up this evening allowing temps to fall to the low- to mid-30s tonight and tomorrow morning. A h850 shortwave is expected to sweep through the southeast tonight and tomorrow morning, with relatively smaller PWAT values but enough to produce a tenth to a half an inch across the northern CWA. With temps just above the surface below freezing this means winter precip will be involved, and even though QPF is expected to be low, it will be enough with an approximate 7.5:1 snow-water ratio for minor snow accumulations to occur with a rain/snow mix across North Georgia. Only about a tenth to a half inch of snow accumulations outside the mountainous regions are expected but with rains and warm ground temps, if anything falls it probably won`t stick around long. In mountainous regions up north this could be a different story. Embedded in colder temps, areas of NW Georgia could see 1-2 inches, with higher elevations along the spine and mountaintops of the GA Blue Ridge mountains could see up to 4 inches in some isolated locations. This has prompted a Winter Weather Advisory for the majority of Northern GA. Temps may climb into the upper 30s before the transition from snow to rain occurs with some slick spots possible where any accumulations occur. Temps tomorrow night will also drop back into the low-30s for N GA, which may continue to cause some slick spots Sunday morning.

Wow! A winter weather thread! I forgot what this looked like here!!!

I think you're in as good a spot as any for this system. Good luck!

Graupel showers in Raleigh at my house in North Hills right now! First frozen precip I've seen AT THE HOUSE this year (saw some snowflakes on the beltline in November) lol

Also, I know nothing about this model and will probably get crucified for posting it, but this would be a great treat for much of central NC!

The trends (within 24 hrs of start time) have been very favorable for this system. I think start time is important, but it's also early February and the cold air is in place, so I don't think it's as detrimental as it would be a few weeks from now (still not ideal but I don't think that is the deal breaker). Moisture is the biggest concern (and seeing what boundary temps are at start time). Not much moisture to burn with this system so every flake counts, literally. I think accumulating snow outside of NE GA and the highlands of SC is less likely, but systems like this can spring surprises. Hi-res and short range models are certainly beefing up precip and this has even translated to the GFS, EUR), ICON, and CMC. All things are trending better for some potential advisory-level snows and that is pretty exciting this year. With this system, I'd look for the moisture then worry about the temps. Thermals are as good as you could want for snow in the deep south besides the boundary layer.

Someone should start a thread for this event and go ahead and curse it... JK pulling for you NE GA guys and the Upstate to squeak out something. I'd focus on the hi-res modeling with these type of systems and the most consistent model has been the NAM to the point that other models seem to be playing catch up. I lived the Cumming area for a year working with Sawnee EMC and I think that spot to Dahlonega, Franklin NC, and up towards Cesar's Head all look like a good spot to be. Boundary layer warmth is going to be hard to model in this but the upper levels are extremely favorable. I would expect at least some white rain in the upstate areas. If its in the 33-34 degree range then some slushy accumulations could occur there. Outside of the surprise snow a week ago, this is the best chance this season for several members of this sub forum. I think some 2-3 in amounts could happen in higher elevations in the areas I outlined.

From rainfall and flooding, tornadoes, a widespread severe squall line, to a post-frontal wind event, I'd say this system has overperformed or at least met expectations for almost all areas of the sub forum. Anyone notice the 68 mph wind gust at Hatteras last hour? We just had what I assume to be the last of the rain from the system. Winds are gusty, but nothing compared to 6:30 this morning. Too bad it wasn't snow but this has been an exciting couple days on the weather front.

I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs.

3.85" of rain in the bucket. Winds gusting over 40 this morning I'd say. More impactful than a lot of tropical systems here. Many trees down, power outages, and some flooding. Quite the day. Still ongoing unless these winds slacked too...

Friend is reporting numerous trees down in his neighborhood off Falls of the Neuse near Ravenscroft. Fiance says power has come back on in our neighborhood but a lot of branches down and trashcans blown over. Sounds like quite the windstorm with the northern part of that bend as it pushed through

Yep- training here in Garner. Absolutely dumping

Lost connection to my home camera in North Hills. Assuming power's out. In Garner we missed most of the wind but it's pouring.

Can you imagine if it was only 40 degree cooler and we had this moisture????

Until next run

Today has produced more tornadoes based on OTG calls by the NWS and now some ground confirmation reports coming out than some of our more well-advertised spring systems of late. And it's only a little past noon.

Saw some snapchats from co-workers in uptown when the second line came through. Wow is all I can say.

Don't see a PDS issued frequently for cities as large as Charlotte. Stay safe

Quickly turning dangerous in the western Carolinas. Storms seems to be efficiently producing tornadic spinups.

Same cell that hit Spartanburg

Tornado Warning NCC025-071-119-061645- /O.NEW.KGSP.TO.W.0013.200206T1604Z-200206T1645Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 1104 AM EST Thu Feb 6 2020 The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Western Cabarrus County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Central Mecklenburg County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... Southeastern Gaston County in the Piedmont of North Carolina... * Until 1145 AM EST. * At 1104 AM EST, a tornado producing storm was located 4 miles southwest of Gastonia, or near South Gastonia, moving east at 60 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Ranlo, Lowell and Dallas around 1110 AM EST. Southwest Charlotte, Paw Creek, Belmont, Lake Wylie and Charlotte Douglas Airport around 1120 AM EST. Uptown Charlotte, Central Charlotte, Northwest Charlotte, Hidden Valley and The Plaza around 1130 AM EST. Downtown Concord, Harrisburg, Charlotte Motor Speedway, West Concord and University City around 1140 AM EST. Other locations impacted by this dangerous thunderstorm include Crowders and Croft. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800, 2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the specific location where it occurred. && LAT...LON 3516 8123 3528 8126 3550 8061 3522 8050 TIME...MOT...LOC 1604Z 253DEG 50KT 3521 8124 TORNADO...OBSERVED HAIL...0.00IN $$ MANNING

Rumbles of thunder in Raleigh right now. 1.16" and about to rain some more

Any confirmation on the Spartanburg cell? Looked very defined and had an apparent TDS as it went right over the city.