NorthHillsWx

After we get through the disappointment of next week's rain, I think we can all move to spring mode

A lot of moving pieces for the system next week. One thing to pay attention to this far out more so than fantasy maps and exact placement of precip as modeled is the mode of cold air transport. This cannot be emphasized enough that even the best runs the last 2 days, especially east of the mountains, are highly dependent on the ~1040 mb High able to efficiently push cold air in-time to meet with the precip. This cold-chasing rain approach very rarely works out especially when the cold is coming from the NW. A backdoor front with cold air established in the NE usually works better (CAD). THAT being said, this is one of the strongest highs we've seen modeled this season. If we can get a long-duration overunning event, those can work in this setup. An amped low can also work to pull and manufacture some of it's own cold air (But we all know the mid level implications of an amped SE storm with marginal cold to begin with). Verdict: this situation is borderline at best. The Euro appeared to be onto something with runs yesterday before going to suppression city today. But the storm is still there. It did not lose it. GFS obviously was more in line with the EURO runs, but is delayed with the cold air (likely not incorrect). This is probably our best "threat" this season, but it has much less going for it than it does going against it and that's just the truth.

Down by 12 TD's, 2 min left. 4th and 22 from your 1 yard line... Let 'er rip

I love the enthusiasm on the main board but chasing these D10 storms is the definition of insanity. Same thing happens and people expect different results. Hey- at least it's something pretty to look at! I am 100% convinced we are getting blanked. This winter's grade is a N/A. It never showed up. I walked out my door this morning at 6:30 to 68 degrees...

The Euro control run... Given the above, not in "scientific" terms though highly accurate, NOTHING outside of D3 deserves any credence showing any sustained cold or a fluke snowstorm until proven otherwise

When was the last strong CAD ice storm for the RDU area? I feel like they used to be way more common. Even minimal events with front end Freezing Rain seemed to occur more frequently. We haven't had ice issues (power outages) in some time, not that I'd want them, but it just seems there always used to be stronger CAD on the front end of most rain systems than now. I can't tell you the last time I saw freezing rain

Terrible pattern, absolutely nothing supporting sustained cold. But something catches a 12 hour window at D10+ and gets shown on 1-2 model runs before turning into a MW cutter. Sigh... Onto severe season for me. Only way to get snow here is what happened in GA/SC the other day, something pops up in D3 range

What have we learned about D10 storms...

Most accurate comment of the day... In other fantasy news... I'd take this look 10/10 and see what we could cook up. Won't happen but that's pretty

ATL, N GA, and Parts of the upstate may hit climo with this storm. That wouldn't even be fair looking at the yearly stats years from now Meanwhile I was happy to see graupel yesterday for 5 min. I wish I could find another cliff I've jumped off every one available so far.

Wow! A winter weather thread! I forgot what this looked like here!!!

Someone should start a thread for this event and go ahead and curse it... JK pulling for you NE GA guys and the Upstate to squeak out something. I'd focus on the hi-res modeling with these type of systems and the most consistent model has been the NAM to the point that other models seem to be playing catch up. I lived the Cumming area for a year working with Sawnee EMC and I think that spot to Dahlonega, Franklin NC, and up towards Cesar's Head all look like a good spot to be. Boundary layer warmth is going to be hard to model in this but the upper levels are extremely favorable. I would expect at least some white rain in the upstate areas. If its in the 33-34 degree range then some slushy accumulations could occur there. Outside of the surprise snow a week ago, this is the best chance this season for several members of this sub forum. I think some 2-3 in amounts could happen in higher elevations in the areas I outlined.

I know no one wants to believe it, but the 3K Nam, ICON and GFS show a decent snow event, not 5 days+ out, but tomorrow for NE Ga and the Upstate of SC (mostly mountains unless you truly believe the NAM). At worst, this looks interesting and some could get a nice little surprise. Seems the models juiced up the system on overnight runs.

Can you imagine if it was only 40 degree cooler and we had this moisture????

Until next run

Definitely looking like the heaviest rain will be west of here. Western Piedmont/Mountains will be a solid flood event

I remember when some were posting snow maps for the 7th, now we're posting rain maps with rain totals looking like they should be snowfall totals instead

Oh I remember. The unexpected clipper where it was in the 20's, snow stuck instantly to everything, all schools and businesses let out, and the city was gridlocked. That was a major storm, regardless of accumulation. It was crazy to see Greg Fischel on air as it became apparent the band of snow was holding together and going to cause issues as it moved in, after advertising nothing but a chance of a flurry that morning!

At this point, I almost don't even want a March novelty, nighttime, precipitation rate-dependent, grass-only, isolated, gone in 4 hours event to ruin the streak and give some credence to there having actually been a winter this year. Go big or go home, we're going for a full-season blanking on measurable snow! Gotta set the bar at the bottom so we won't be surprised when it happens again....

With the way this season is going, I'd take that event and cash out today. I do not think we will see measurable snow in Raleigh. Good find though as I've been here for the same timeframe, 30 years.

Raleigh usually has a snow shield for big storms, might as well extend it to novelty events as well

Just going to say this: there is an Obs thread. This is the discussion thread.

Can you cancel winter if it never even came?

Our 2 days of slightly below average westerly sinking flow from the Apps... No arctic connection. No cold.

Well, as the LR now takes us into mid February with no hint of a pattern change, you may as well find your nearest cliff and jump, if you haven't already. Getting into sun angle szn before too long which starts to eliminate this board from south to north with every passing day outside the mountains. Ugh I didn't have high hopes for this winter but did not envision a board-wide blanking (minus the mountains)